Long detailed writeups for my LARGE Teaser Wager in Week 9. PLEASE READ,GIVE FEEDBACK

imgv94 · 10-29-2007, 06:21 AM

PLANNING ON RISKING 4 UNITS ON THIS ONE

Bengals +9.5
to
Steelers -0.5

Reasoning:

Bengals +9.5:

Whats the one thing everyone is saying about the Bengals? Their defense sucks, offense is the bomb Palmer,Chad Johnson, TJ Whosyourmama etc. But please let's realize that the Bills isn't any better.

BILLS DEFENSE:
Def Run: 24th (4.7ypc allowed)
Def Pass: 29th

^^^
BAD DEFENSE? Bengals shouldn't have much problems with this D.

Again we all know that the Bengals have an explosive offense actually the 5th best offense in NFL

Bills offense hmm NOT SO GOOD...............

Bills
Off Run: 20th
Off Pass: 31st

Bills really don't do anything good.

Buffalo is only averaging 13.9ppg this season (29th)
The most points the Bills have scored this season is 24.

Is Buffalo's dismal offense going to outscore the NFLs 5th best offense in the NFL by DD's..

Don't you think Carson Palmer will have a ton of success against the 29th worst PASS DEFENSE?

Consider this as well, Bengals have lost by DD's twice this season to - New England who has killed everyone and the Steelers who have their # and is a much better team than the Bills.

Bengals 0-3 on the road this season but they didn't lose any of those games by more than 7 points. Losing to three teams who are better than the Bills.

Bengals and the points is the right way to go, Bengals are not losing by DD's to a Bills team who does nothing well.

Steelers -0.5:

Whatever the case the Steelers have the edge in almost every category. Not only that but their @ HOME too.

Better QB
Better RBs
Better WRs
Better O-Line
Secondary Neutral
Run Defense: Baltimore but not by much cause the Steelers are still ranked 5th vs Run.

We all know the Ravens have a great defense but the damn
Steelers have a GREAT DEFENSE too.

Steelers Def Run: 4th
Steelers Def Pass: 5th

Steelers may even have the better DEFENSE

Points allowed
Ravens 119
Steelers 91

Let's talk about offense now..

Steelers have a pretty good offense averaging 26.7ppg
Steelers have the 5th ranked offense in the NFL

Ravens on the other hand are only averaging 17.7ppg on offense.

Okay so the Steelers have an as good or maybe even better defense AND they avg nine more points a game AND their @ HOME!!

Let's look even deeper......

Pittsburgh has the better RUNNING game.

Pitt Off Run:1st
Balt Off Run: 16th

Need more evidence?

Pitt offense Run: 4.8 yds per carry
Balt offense Run 3.9yds per carry

OK

Let's look at the pass now

Baltimore Off Pass: 16th
Steelers Off Pass : 21th

Alright, the Ravens pass the ball a little better. Oh well

BUT WAIT! This is a MISLEADING stat.

Baltimore has yielded only 100 more yards in passing than the Steelers
BUT
Have attempted 83 more passes.

Pass Attempts per game
Balt: 39.3
Pitt: 27.1

Yards per Pass
Balt 5.8
Pitt 8.0

So actually Baltimore doesn't have the better passing game...

Baltimore has really struggled on the road this season:

Balt 20
Cin 27

Balt 13
Clev 27

Balt 9
SF 7

Balt 14
Buff 19

1-3

Outscored 56 to 80, all by teams that Pittsburgh have played and defeated by 11 or more.

Let's see what the Steelers have done at home this season:

Buff 3
Pitt 26

SF 16
Pitt 37

Sea 0
Pitt 21

Won all three games by 21 points or more.

Well I did my best to make you like this teaser as much as I do.

Really really Love this teaser guys. Planning on making this a rare 4 unit play.

Would really love your thoughts about this, thanks in advance.

VegasDave · 10-29-2007, 06:35 AM

Even without your explaining it, I love it. Agree that Buffalo won't be able to move the ball and that the Ravens do not match up at all against the Steelers.

Like the big play on just these 2 games, but a few more to consider for side bets or whatever (in order)...

New England +2.5 @ Indy
San Diego -0.5 @ Minnesota
Dallas +4.0 @ Philadelphia

etothep · 10-29-2007, 12:50 PM

teased cincy and pitt too imgv

regularguy · 10-29-2007, 12:59 PM

Excellent write-up! Thank you.

I will definitely look into doing something with these games.

Teasem · 10-29-2007, 01:12 PM

My take here:

Bengals WIN
Steelers WIN

So I obviously LOVE the teaser. I have done well with the Bills this year, but this is definitely a game that the Bengals can win and +9.5?? If the bills win it will be by 7 or less.

The Ravens don't have what it takes this year to stick with my Steelers. All we need to do is manage the game and watch the struggling Ravens "TRY" to put points on the board; could see a 23 - 10 type of game here.

Good writeup IMGV, I'll play this one with you so we can cheer or cry together

NardVa · 10-29-2007, 01:18 PM

Baltimore did shut Pitt out in the first meeting last year and held them to 7 in second meeting. I think Baltimore's Defense will do fine against Pitt's offense, but I don't trust Baltimore offense on the road after doing nothing against San Fran and Buff on the road.

The only thing Baltimore has going for them on offense is Mcnair is back and they had 2 weeks to get their offense going. Plus Mcgee is in the top 10 in rushing and and Mason in the top 5 in receptions.

But I'm going with Pitt at home.

Teasem · 10-29-2007, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NardVa

Baltimore did shut Pitt out in the first meeting last year and held them to 7 in second meeting. I think Baltimore's Defense will do fine against Pitt's offense, but I don't trust Baltimore offense on the road after doing nothing against San Fran and Buff on the road.

The only thing Baltimore has going for them on offense is Mcnair is back and they had 2 weeks to get their offense going. Plus Mcgee is in the top 10 in rushing and and Mason in the top 5 in receptions.

But I'm going with Pitt at home.

This is NOT the Ravens defense of last year.....it simply is not the same unit

joeygats · 10-29-2007, 03:04 PM

take the 49ers not pitt they never beat the ravens just my 2 cents gl

mgcolby · 10-29-2007, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NardVa

Baltimore did shut Pitt out in the first meeting last year and held them to 7 in second meeting. I think Baltimore's Defense will do fine against Pitt's offense, but I don't trust Baltimore offense on the road after doing nothing against San Fran and Buff on the road.

The only thing Baltimore has going for them on offense is Mcnair is back and they had 2 weeks to get their offense going. Plus Mcgee is in the top 10 in rushing and and Mason in the top 5 in receptions.

But I'm going with Pitt at home.

I don't like the Ravens offense anywhere and their defense is above average but they don't make enough plays to overcome their horrendous offense (when they play a team with a competent offense).

mgcolby · 10-29-2007, 04:29 PM

I like your plays. Pitt will win by 10+. I think Bills can win this but it won't be by 10, IMO.

Good Luck