Seahawks at Steelers - Thoughts?

regularguy · 10-02-2007, 12:25 PM

I hope the weekend treated you OK. I went 3-2-0, but had slightly bigger bets on the two losses (UNLV and Pittsburgh). Lost about 1 unit. I'm undaunted, and the first game that has caught my eye is Seattle at Pittsburgh.

My sportsbook (Nevada brick and mortar) has the Steelers at -6. I'm tempted to put some money on the Steelers to cover that. [Update: got the Steelers at -6.]

Seattle is coming off a big win against a division foe. They have to pack up and go to Pittsburgh to try to do it again against a much better team.

A few factoids: Seattle is 16-40 ATS in October since 1992, and is 14-33 ATS in the same period off a win against a division rival. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 36-19 ATS in October since 1992, and is 33-16 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the same period. Over the last 3 years, Pittsburgh is a good 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. These are not the kind of factors that I place much stock in usually, but these happen to be sort of notable.

It's close, but I think the Steelers have an edge on both lines of scrimmage. Tell me if I'm wrong there.

Both teams have good quarterbacks. I tend to think the Steelers have the edge there (I know a lot of people will disagree). To me, Roethlisberger is a gritty, practical guy who loves football and finds ways to win. Maybe he has a little Favre in him. Maybe not. Anyway, I'll take him at home in this one.

The Steelers are coming back to Pittsburgh after an embarrassment in Arizona. The talk of them being among the elite has quieted. They will want to get that back. I don't think they are going to let this season get away from them.

The Steelers' three wins have been by big margins, including that 34-7 drubbing of the Browns in Cleveland. The Seahawks just barely got by Cincinnati in Seattle (24-21) (however, they did have an impressive win over Tampa Bay, to go with their whipping of the 49ers).

Both teams have some injuries. Shaun Alexander is day to day with a wrist injury for the Seahawks. Hines Ward likely will not play for the Steelers. It appears that Troy Polamalu is OK and will play. Please let us know if you see anything different on that; it's a key factor.

It looks like people are betting on the Steelers. I may grab this one today at Steelers -6.

What do you think?

Tchocky · 10-02-2007, 12:29 PM

Small play on Seattle moneyline +205

regularguy · 10-02-2007, 12:42 PM

Also: the Steelers are the sort of play highlighted on the NFL SBR page. They are top ten in both run and pass defense, and are single digit home favorites. Maybe that matters.

And, by the way, some just don't like 6 point favorites much. I understand that. I have made some money with them, though (especially the Colts and Patriots over the last few years), so I bet them sometimes.

Finally, I'm not freakin' Jimmy the Greek or anything, but I thought you might be interested in my delusional thinking.

Seattle Slew · 10-02-2007, 01:08 PM

Tough game. I've been very lucky with Seattle the last few years. I'd side with them here because I think the line is too much.

cooljw · 10-02-2007, 01:11 PM

Flying all the way across the country usually comes into play too. I like the Steelers at home to cover.

eggy6198 · 10-02-2007, 03:13 PM

okay I have been on Seattle all year and even though I am a skins fan know quite a bit about this team.

They are a little over average both in D and off.

Also I have seen some of the Steelers this year including the game against the 49ers.

I think for both team home feild advantage is big. The Steelers have that yellow scarf waving thing while Seattle have the loudest ground in the league (offical).

The key here is the Steelers D which I believe has enough to stop the Seattle running game hence they have to move to their weakness the WRs who are okay but not outstanding.

The Steelers can be stopped however I believe you need a very good D to stop the Steelers at home and some TOs.

I would say the Steelers will cover and maybe a small play

walkingdude2 · 10-02-2007, 04:01 PM

Tough call when speaking of total Offense the two teams are almost even. Pit runs better but Sea throws better. Sea D gives more yards a game but has a decent rush D.

Turnover ratio is favoring Sea.

I am leaning toward Sea but only in a teaser. Pit should win the game but it seems it may be close.

LT Profits · 10-02-2007, 04:16 PM

Thanks for noticing regularguy.

Yes, home teams that are in the top 10 in both pass defense and run defense from Week 5 on are 176-122, 59.1% ATS since 1990 if they are not favored by 10 or more. Right now, only teams in that category are Steelers and Pats, but New England is favored by 99 this week.

forex · 10-02-2007, 04:28 PM

rex grossman just blows period...

cap10 · 10-02-2007, 05:10 PM

SEA +5.5 IS A GIFT;; I FELT ALL ALONG PITT WAS OVERRATED;; THEY WON'T PASS VS SEA CAUSE OF A NICE SECONDARY(REM CINCI) ;; M HOMY SHOULD HAVE A NICE PLAN TO STOP THE RUN ;; GRAB THE POINT CAUSE SEA WILL PROB WIN SU

GL

cap10 · 10-02-2007, 05:13 PM

The Other Game That Jumps Out At Me Is Sd Den U42.5; BOTH THESE OFFENSES BLOW DONKEY;; UNDER ALL DAY

Dark Horse · 10-02-2007, 06:57 PM

Leaning Steelers, but no opinion until Friday injury report. Polamalu left the game Sunday and Ward didn't play at all. Clearly, PIT isn't the same without these leaders on defense and offense.

NardVa · 10-02-2007, 07:54 PM

The thing with the Steelers is they may not really be that good and the Seahawks may be better than what most people think. The Steelers beat the Browns with Charlie Frye starting, 49ers, and the Bills which are 3 teams that are considered weak. They go down to Arizona and pretty much do nothing on offense.

I say bet on the money line for the Seahawks to win straight up

EGGY6199 · 10-03-2007, 04:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Leaning Steelers, but no opinion until Friday injury report. Polamalu left the game Sunday and Ward didn't play at all. Clearly, PIT isn't the same without these leaders on defense and offense.

Good point

EGGY6199 · 10-03-2007, 04:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NardVa

The thing with the Steelers is they may not really be that good and the Seahawks may be better than what most people think. The Steelers beat the Browns with Charlie Frye starting, 49ers, and the Bills which are 3 teams that are considered weak. They go down to Arizona and pretty much do nothing on offense.

I say bet on the money line for the Seahawks to win straight up

Also liking. But Seattle away from home is a different beast.

If the line was Seattle +7 I would play
0r Steelers -3

The reason I like the Steelers at the mo is Parker v that run D. I think this matchs up well for the Steelers

forex · 10-03-2007, 09:15 AM

seahawks are one of my fav teams but I am going with pitts su and +6

justdoingit · 10-03-2007, 10:52 AM

i have seen alot of seattle the past few years they are not as good on the road and i say if polamalu comes back and if they get pressure on Matt Hasselbeck Pitt will be a lock. Especially with Alexander is still hurt and has no real backup to speak of. Im taking Pitt where ever the line ends up on friday since people are buying into Seattle.