Let's talk about the Vikings vs Lions -3, Discussion Thread.

imgv94 · 09-10-2007, 01:09 AM

Strongly considering the Lions here.

Game where we see defense vs offense. While I usually go with the Defense, I'm strongly considering the Lions here.

Would like some thoughts on this game thanks...

pico · 09-10-2007, 01:10 AM

week 2 already?

there is monday night games

onlòóker · 09-10-2007, 01:13 AM

At first glance I would say the Lions, but that might be the fan in me talking. I am yet to look at next weeks slate of NFL, so just not sure yet.

imgv94 · 09-10-2007, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by picoman

week 2 already?

there is monday night games

I start early bro..

area51steve · 09-10-2007, 01:21 AM

I would say go with the lions but wait to see how the line moves. You should get a much better number on the lions later in the week. I'm pretty sure most people will take the vikings plus the points.

imgv94 · 09-10-2007, 01:24 AM

Yeah wait for -2.5 seems like the way to go.

rjt721 · 09-10-2007, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by area51steve

I would say go with the lions but wait to see how the line moves. You should get a much better number on the lions later in the week. I'm pretty sure most people will take the vikings plus the points.

I think the opposite. Not sure why the public would be on Tarvaris Jackson on the road only getting a FG. I think this closes at -5. It's already -3 with heavy juice at most books, and -3.5 at a few others. Jump on now if you like Detroit.

imgv94 · 09-10-2007, 01:32 AM

I think the Lions are going to be decent this season..

slacker00 · 09-10-2007, 05:18 AM

I guess if you're betting on the Lions, you're betting against Tavaris Jackson. Unfortunately, that doesn't help me decide. lol

I've tossed this one around in my mind for a while, and I keep coming up with it being dead even, giving Detroit the standard 3 points for home field. Face it, this line is set right. No advantage to be found.

EGGY6199 · 09-10-2007, 05:46 AM

Okay so the lions put some points on Oakland. Oakland can pass rush and that's about it. The Oakland Off has to be better this year just because it couldn't get much worse but they put some points on the lions and early on in the game should have got in an early lead.

Detriot are a shoot out team and a good D will stop them. The only issue here is the vikings are great against the run and average against the pass. The key however is the vikings can run it while the lions will not stop them. Their D will get tired and the Vikings will dominate the ball.

Vikings is the play

slacker00 · 09-17-2007, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slacker00

I guess if you're betting on the Lions, you're betting against Tavaris Jackson. Unfortunately, that doesn't help me decide. lol

I've tossed this one around in my mind for a while, and I keep coming up with it being dead even, giving Detroit the standard 3 points for home field. Face it, this line is set right. No advantage to be found.

I'm bumping this thread, because this happened to me a few times last season as well. I broke the game down, and found the line to be dead right on, at least in my mind. Sure enough, the spread lands right on the line. I didn't post about it, but I thought hard about buying the "3", buying Lions -2 1/2 & Vikings +3 1/2. I didn't do it, but I'm kinda pissed that I didn't go for it.

So, as an exercise, I'm going to buy the number for at least one game per week for the rest of the NFL season. I'm just going to pick the closest game, for me, and buy the number. I'm just curious how I'll do. Even more, I'm curious about the math behind making this kind off play. I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but I realize that I'll be paying double juice. How often do I have to hit the number to make a profit in the long run? I realize it depends on the number as well as the price. Buying the 3 will be expensive, but it will often land on the 3, etc. Worst of all, this is a high variance play. Even if I'm a very good handicapper at this angle, it's reasonable to assume it may be weeks and weeks before I get paid off.

This will be mostly an educational experiment for me, this season. I'm already experienced betting spreads & moneylines, now I'm trying to branch out further to give me more angles and more opportunties. I've still got to learn over-unders, halves & props better. I'm kinda confident in my ability to handle teasers & parlays, after doing it all last season. I guess "buying the number" is one more angle of discipline to add to my laundry list, as I progress past "handicapping 101" and onto "handicapping 102", etc.