CFL Week 11: Discussions, Leans, Picks . . .

Checkerboard · 09-04-2007, 11:53 PM

Fri Sep 07 Calgary @ Edmonton 21:00 EST

Sat Sep 08 Hamilton @ Toronto 15:00 EST

Sun Sep 09 BC @ Montreal 13:00 EST

Sun Sep 09 Saskatchewan @ Winnipeg 16:00 EST

Checkerboard · 09-04-2007, 11:56 PM

Cal -2.5 56
BC pk 50.5
Winn -3 51

Couldn't fid a line or total for Argos game on Saturday afternoon as of time of this post . . .

Good luck everbody!

betplom · 09-05-2007, 03:15 AM

Really REALLY liking Calgary -2.5 to thump the Eskimos in Edmonton. When they turn it on, Calgary looks unstoppable. I'm getting on this early, before the line moves higher (which it WILL).

Meestermike · 09-06-2007, 12:27 AM

The line on the Calgary game is now at -2 +100 or in Euro terms 451 Calgary Stampeders -2 2.000 at Pinnacle. I agree that Calgary should win SU and also cover the ATS by a field goal. I have them at Pk to -1 in my formulas but Calgary on the road is 1-3 TY both SU & ATS.
Calgary's offensive Road YPPT is 18.5 compared to Edmonton's defensive Home YPPT at 15.6 = +2.9
Edmonton's offensive home YPPT is 14.3 compared to Calgary's defensive road YPPT at 10.8. = -3.5
This results in a mediocre but favourable advantage toward Edmonton.

All this leans to a 'dog SU & ATS win IMO. I am waiting on a ML on Thursday to see if there's any real value to play on.

betplom · 09-06-2007, 11:23 PM

I'm glad I waited, got Calgary at -2. I see some places also have Calgary -1.5.

zootiehead · 09-07-2007, 07:10 PM

Calgary is at a pick now. What gives?

betplom · 09-07-2007, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zootiehead

Calgary is at a pick now. What gives?

I'm staying on Calgary, I don't understand it myself, Edmonton is minus a few key starters and couldn't stop Calgary last game, now money on Edmonton has moved the line to -1 or pick.

I don't get it.

betplom · 09-07-2007, 09:47 PM

I get it now, Edmonton looking so dominant and up 10-0 early.

Calgary not even in it at the moment. Live and learn.
I know it's early but this one feels like its already done.

psycho44 · 09-08-2007, 10:29 AM

Man sweated out that Calgary pick.

Now off to watch the 2nd half of the Argos game. Line is too high at 11.5 for a revenge rivalry game that I'm just going to pass.

betplom · 09-08-2007, 11:23 AM

I'm taking Toronto -11 at home against Hamilton.

Yeah its alot of points but Hamilton is starting Chang and will be without Lumsden again Saturday.

Checkerboard · 09-08-2007, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by betplom

I'm taking Toronto -11 at home against Hamilton.

Yeah its alot of points but Hamilton is starting Chang and will be without Lumsden again Saturday.

good work on the -11 betplom (-13 at most books by game time ended up pushing for those that got the late number).

I thought 44 was a low total; went over easy . . .

Sets tomorrow's early game up; I think 49 is high, for those that agree I notice SBGlobal has it set at 50! I also found 49.5
at 365.

DoctorX79 · 09-09-2007, 09:37 AM

BC gonna crush Montréal again.Even if im a Alouettes fan i must admit they got no chance without Calvillo vs BC

betplom · 09-09-2007, 11:15 AM

Calvillo is out?

The line BC -2.5 seems low?

As for the Toronto Hamilton game - Chang was an interception machine, 3 ints consecutive helped my cause and the over which I didn't play.