[bigboydan]

I really expect the Patriots to be a money burner this year. I also feel that Moss will do more harm than good playing for them.

Using one of the easiest schedules as their crutch, the AFC East featured three teams with winning records at the pay window last season. That cupcake slate won't be there this year, but that doesn't mean the division is headed for a losing season with the New England Patriots the early favorites to win another NFL title.

Once again, Florida is to blame.
Patriots still the power in AFC East

The AFC East was a moneymaker for NFL handicappers last year at 37-31 against the spread. It was the only division to feature two teams with double-digit ATS victories; in fact, there were three. That good fortune didn’t extend too far down the coast, but folks in the Sunshine State have reason to expect greener pastures in 2007.

All that money must have gone to Bill Belichick’s head. His New England Patriots (12-4 straight up, 10-6 ATS in 2006) spent a big chunk of change to upgrade the receiving corps, bringing Randy Moss, Donte’ Stallworth, Wes Welker and others aboard. That’s some serious box-office. With starting quarterback Tom Brady still in his prime, it’s understandable if the Pats are runaway favorites on the futures market to win Super Bowl XLII.

But what if Brady gets injured? Is Matt Cassel capable of handling this offense when the chips are down? Patriots supporters might also start sweating if any of their ancient linebacking corps gets carted off the field; Junior Seau is entering his 18th season in the NFL, while Tedy Bruschi, Don Davis and Larry Izzo are all 12-year veterans. It’s a long road to the Super Bowl, after all.

The Miami Dolphins (6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS) can tell you all about the perils of losing your No. 1 quarterback to injury. The Daunte Culpepper experiment never really got off the ground in Miami after the three-time Pro Bowl pivot failed to recover from a serious knee injury in 2005. He’s been replaced by Trent Green who was deemed expendable in Kansas City after missing half the year with a concussion. Those injuries can turn out much worse, of course, but Green shouldn’t be limited in his abilities to the extent that his predecessor was. Unless you count the fact that Green turned 37 earlier this week.

The Fish felt secure enough with their QB situation that they passed on Brady Quinn and chose WR Ted Ginn from Ohio State. That caused some consternation among the media, and Ginn hasn’t been treated favorably by analysts for the most part. But the former Ohio State phenom was graded at 93 by Scouts Inc., and his potential as a Devin Hester-level threat on special teams gives Miami fans even more cause for optimism.

The New York Jets (10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS) can also sing the praises of modern medicine. Quarterback Chad Pennington returned from rotator cuff issues to play the full slate of 16 games, leading the Jets all the way back to the playoffs and earning NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors. Pennington will be supported this year with an improved offensive line and former Bears running back Thomas Jones taking the rock.

Yet it’s hard to tell what New York will do for an encore. Saddled with a defensive line that doesn’t look any better for 2007, the Jets played somewhat over their heads last year, facing a cupcake schedule (as did all the AFC East clubs) and managing just 7.8 'estimated wins' according to Football Outsiders.

Not so this time. All four teams in the division are among the league’s Top 8 in strength of schedule, with the Jets’ new opponents going a combined 132-124 last year.

Fans of the Buffalo Bills (7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS) will be appalled to see their team projected yet again to finish at the bottom of the division, especially with QB J.P. Losman finally shedding the 'bust' label last year with 19 touchdowns compared to 14 interceptions. But it’s difficult to put much stock in an organization that appears hamstrung by questionable front office moves, like the selection of running back Marshawn Lynch with the 12th overall pick in 2007. It isn’t so much that Lynch isn’t talented, it’s more the way the Bills cooled on Willis McGahee, trading him to Baltimore after an assortment of nagging injuries slowed his production.

Joining McGahee in the exodus from Buffalo: CB Nate Clements and LBs Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher. The Bills should get instant dividends from their second-round pick, former Penn State LB Paul Posluszny, but this looks and cooks like a team with some more rebuilding to do.


Patriots still the power in AFC East

[shrax4]

I'm looking to fade the Pats and Colts as much as I can.

Will the Jets still be a covering machine this year?

[Checkerboard]

I'll be fading Colts out of the gates if not only for value.

bigboydan, I think Moss has been read the riot act, and if he steps out of line, will be used to set an example. My guess is Belichick's got him on zero tolerance.

I'm more inclined to NE unders vs. fades. If they have a parliament of wide receivers it'd be just like belichik to run all game, using the deep threat as a decoy at least until the tactic is revealed.

[bigboydan]

Originally Posted by shrax4

I'm looking to fade the Pats and Colts as much as I can.

Will the Jets still be a covering machine this year?

Good question shrax. I think they will probably a little below average ATS this year actually. I feel they over achieve last year, and it will show this year.