[Razz]

Thursday

NFL

NFL Overall (61-48-2, +35.40*)
NFL Sides (38-33-1, +19.30*)

4* Falcons -3 @ Lions

7* Cowboys ML +125
It is absolutely amazing to me that the general public has driven the Broncos to be the favorite in this game. The Broncos are the most overrated team in the NFL, and are clueless on the road. They have played four games on the road this season (as opposed to 6 at home, which is part of the reason they are overvalued), and are only 2-2, despite playing bad and mediocre teams. They have been outgained badly in all four, which proves to me that winning the two they did was more the product of their opposition finding a way to lose.
The Broncos are especially bad on artifical turf, losing their only try this season, and only covering 4 of 15 in that situation. Meanwhile, they match up well with some teams, but certainly not the Cowboys, who have the defense to nullify the Bronco running game. Once this happens, the old Jake Plummer will emerge, and turnovers should be aplenty.
The Broncos secondary is pathetic, and the line does not force pressure on the QB, which means Bledsoe will have time to pick them apart. The Boys win by double digits.
Cowboys 27, Broncos 10

A note about my college plays - Plays with a consensus partner were just short of -90*, and since going alone, I have had four straight winning weeks, and up over 30*. I continue to post the overall record.

NCAA Football Overall (106-102-1, -58.05*)
NCAAF Sides (83-78, -44.95*)

2* Pitt +14.5

[Razz]

NCAAF

4* Hawaii +7 -115 vs. Wisconsin
People continue overvaluing Wisconsin to an extreme extent. I’m not really sure what they have done to deserve to be favored in this game (of course, my ratings for teams deal more with total yards than the odds makers and general public’s perceptions do - more on that below). And, according to one sportsbook, they are taking over 90% of the bets on this game on the Badgers.
I’ll continue to say that Hawaii has the biggest home field advantage in the country. Under June Jones, the Rainbow Warriors are 7-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of more than 3, with the lone loss to USC in the opener this season. This was proven last year in a very similar situation, as both Michigan St. and Northwestern came to the islands, and were beaten by Hawaii, who were helped by the home crowd, and perhaps more importantly, the home officials. Hawaii possesses another unique advantage against Wisconsin, as they are the team that is motivated here. The Warriors will not be playing a bowl game this season, and will treat this as their bowl game. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has been beset by winter weather, and this trip to Hawaii will be more about a vacation than attempting to win a football game. Also, amidst the replacement of HC Alvarez with defensive coordinator Bielema is a swelling controversy. Namely, Bielema has been discussing replacing several current members of the Wisconsin staff with those from Kansas St.
The Badgers have been totally exposed the past couple weeks, getting destroyed by Penn St. and then losing to Iowa at home in HC Alvarez’s last home game. They simply aren’t a very good team, and are lucky to even have a winning record at this point. Their defense is abysmal, ranking 101st in scoring defense and 105th in total defense, and shows no strength against the run or the pass. They are also injured, including missing DE Shaughnessey.
Behind QB Brennan, Hawaii is putting up 388 passing yards per game, and stopping a spread offense has always been a weakness in Alvarez’s defenses. This year he has his worst.
Wisconsin will be able to run the ball with some effectiveness, but Warrior DC Jerry Glanville has vastly improved Hawaii’s defense, and will attempt to make John Stocco keep pace with Brennan. That will never happen.
Hawaii 45, Wisconsin 35

2* Colorado -15.5 vs. Nebraska - I'm an idiot for waiting this long to bet this.
Similar to Tennessee-Vanderbilt last week, Colorado considers this much more of a rivalry than Nebraska does. Those teams generally take the opportunity when the opposition is in a down situation.
In their last four home games, the Buffaloes have averaged 41 ppg and covered by 16 ppg. By contrast, the Huskers have failed to cover by 20 ppg their last two away from home. Colorado owns this series, having covered 8 of 9.
Colorado needs this win to assure themselves of the Big 12 North, and I don’t see any conceivable way they don’t get it against a Nebraska team that is only averaging 32 rush yards per game. Colorado pounds a dispirited Cornhusker team and sends Bill Callahan out of Lincoln for good.
Colorado 44, Nebraska 17

2* Arkansas +17.5 @ LSU
LSU is another phony team that people believe is a top-10 team. Somehow, they are ranked #3 in the nation. At best, it is the third best team in its own conference.
LSU’s defense is nowhere near as talented as people believe. They cannot stop the run against good rushing attacks. There are two teams that rush for over 200 yards per game in the SEC. One is Auburn, who went to Baton Rouge and was thoroughly dominant, but missed field goals and an LSU special teams touchdown produced that misleading final of 20-17. The Tigers ran for well over 200 yards in that one, and I expect the same here. Not only will this lead to points, but it should shorten the game.
LSU’s offense is too shaky to be laying this many points against all but the weakest teams. If the Razorbacks can overcome some injuries, they could be in this one to the end.
LSU 31, Arkansas 21

2* Arizona St. -9.5 vs. Arizona
Clearly, this is a rivalry game, but Arizona St. has more to play for, since they would be heading to the Las Vegas Bowl if they win this week, while the Wildcats have basically had a lost season.
Arizona’s Willie Tuitama played well in his first two games, but lowly Washington brought him back to earth by forcing him into 3 interceptions and two fumbles, as well as leaving him injured, though still probable for this game. WR Mike Thomas is doubtful for the Wildcats. Without an effective passing game, Arizona St. can crowd Mike Bell and the Arizona running game.
The Sun Devil defense has been burned by explosive offenses all season, but Arizona does not qualify. They can keep up with almost anyone offensively though, especially since Rudy Carpenter came to be the Sun Devil QB. In three games, he has completed 72% of his passes, thrown for over 1,100 yards, and thrown 8 touchdowns to only one interception.
The Devils have revenge from a shocking loss last year, when 8-2 Arizona St. was stunned by 2-8 Arizona. They have been one of the best revenge teams in the nation, covering 30 of their last 34 conference revenge wins. Also, they may be playing for Dirk Cutter’s job, as he has been feeling the pressure lately. A blowout win would ease that.
Arizona St. 41, Arizona 24

[Razz]

4* Maryland +3 @ North Carolina St.


4* Kansas +2.5 vs. Iowa St.


3* Connecticut +7.5 vs. South Florida


2* Louisiana Tech +6.5 -105 vs. Boise St.


2* Mississippi St. +3 vs. Mississippi


1* Nevada +15.5 vs. Fresno St.


I'll be back later with writeups and maybe one or two more plays.

[Illusion]

Good luck this weekend Razz

[Razz]

Luckily the Cowboys don't play today. For anyone who doesn't understand that statement, I have had two big plays on Cowboys games recently, and both times saw my side thoroughly dominate the game, and somehow lose.

Sunday 11/27

5* Seahawks -4.5 -105


4* Dolphins +7 @ Raiders


3* Jets +1 vs. Saints


3* Jaguars -3 @ Cardinals


2* Browns +4 @ Vikings


2* Redskins +3 Even vs. Chargers


2* Bills +4 vs. Panthers


Monday 11/28

4* Steelers +8.5 @ Colts

NFL Totals (23-15-1, +16.10*)

3* Bears @ Buccaneers Under 33
3* Browns @ Vikings Under 39.5

Even I don't like taking this many games, but I can't convince myself not to on any of them. Also, I am stepping out with a prediction that dogs hit at at least a 60% clip the rest of the year.

[Razz]

One last thing:

In-State Opinions (11-2-2):

Strong Opinion: Troy +7.5 vs. MTSU
Opinion: East Carolina +5 vs. UAB

[picantel]

Why do you think east carolina will beat UAB or cover? EC is a really bad team. Also, what do you think of utep(-7)? I love that play.

[Razz]

Originally Posted by picantel

Why do you think east carolina will beat UAB or cover? EC is a really bad team. Also, what do you think of utep(-7)? I love that play.

I'm not betting on ECU, just posting an opinion about the in-state teams as I have been doing. But the reason I would lean that way is that UAB is in a bad technical spot. UAB is a bad favorite (7-14 ATS, including 2-4 this season), while ECU has been a good underdog under Skip Holtz, covering 6 of 8, including three SU wins. Also, the Blazers are coming off that surprising win at UTEP, and need this win to become bowl eligible. Since they don't have much experience in pressure situations, I think that could be a burden, especially if they struggle early. Also, the ECU pass defense is 11th nationally, which is important against Hackney and Co.

Good luck with UTEP. I'm not crazy about either side, but would certainly lean to UTEP. It's hard to imagine them not showing up after playing so badly last week.

[picantel]

well I hope you are wrong on uab at least lol. I still have 3 parleys that are going strong and I need UAB(-4.5), Utep(-7), and boise st(-6.5) to complete them. I also have them teased up to uab(+1.5), Utep(-1) and boise st(-.5). crossing my fingers. I have a 4 unit on utep(-7) also straight up.

[bigboydan]

any opinions on the texas/texas a&m game razz ?

[Razz]

I can't make a case for taking a 28.5 point road favorite, especially in a rivalry situation. From all handicapping angles, A&M is the only way to go, but I'm not high on A&M either, just because they may have to score 35 points to cover. Their defense is horrible and Vince Young will be anxious to match Reggie Bush's stellar performance from last week. If the Aggies get down quick, it could get very ugly. If they don't, it wouldn't surprise me if they had a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter.

[bigpig19]

Another amazing week in football last week as my partner and I went 8-1 winning 31.6* making our yearly total +90.3* on the year in total football and +81.8* counting the first week where i lost 9.5* without a consensus partner. I have some plays but I am at work and cannot get current line so I am going to pass

[slacker00]

Originally Posted by Razz

I can't make a case for taking a 28.5 point road favorite, especially in a rivalry situation. From all handicapping angles, A&M is the only way to go, but I'm not high on A&M either, just because they may have to score 35 points to cover. Their defense is horrible and Vince Young will be anxious to match Reggie Bush's stellar performance from last week. If the Aggies get down quick, it could get very ugly. If they don't, it wouldn't surprise me if they had a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter.

A+ analysis, Razz.

I watched the game knowing nothing about these two teams, barely following college football. For Texas' supposed explosiveness, and A&M's supposed lack of defense, A&M played one hell of a game. Vince Young lost the Heisman, IMO, today. He might have been trying too hard to impress the Heisman committee, I don't know. Maybe if he settled down and let the game come to him it would have been more of a Texas blowout as expected.

[Razz]

Adding a total.

4* Florida St. @ Florida Under 49

[Razz]

4-2 on sides yesterday, 1-0 on totals. All four side wins were dogs who won outright, but I played no moneylines. Oh well.

Adding an NFL game.

2* Ravens +9.5 -105

Quick list of all plays, with extremely brief writeups.

5* Seahawks -4.5 -105 - Eli Manning has won one road game in his career, against the 49ers. The last time the Giants went to the west coast to play a good team, they were humiliated by the Chargers. Their defense will fare no better against Alexander than they did against Tomlinson.
4* Dolphins +7 @ Raiders - The Dolphins have been silently better than most thought, and have recommitted themselves after last week. The Raiders are a 7 point favorite that can't run the ball or play defense as well as the team they are playing.
3* Jets +1 vs. Saints - Saints shouldn't be a road favorite over any team in NFL history. The Jets should come out inspired in front of the home crowd on national television.
3* Jaguars -3 @ Cardinals - I can't place any credence on the Cardinals win at St. Louis, and the Jags should stifle their offense.
2* Browns +4 @ Vikings - Very high upset potential. The Vikings are off three consecutive wins, but the last two have been fluky. They aren't an offensive juggernaut with a depleted team, and the Browns continue to impress me.
2* Redskins +3 Even vs. Chargers - Three weeks ago, the Chargers were 3-4, and I predicted they would win out with the exception of possibly this game. The Redskins have played bad the last two weeks, but I still feel they are more the team that outplayed KC and Denver on the road in two close losses, and dominated mediocre teams. The public's general response when they see a game like this is to bet on the flashy offense, and ignore the home dog with the better defense.
2* Bills +4 vs. Panthers - The Panthers haven't been that good on the road this year, while the Bills have been extremely good at home. Carolina struggled in the elements last week, and faces more of the same here. The last time the Bills were blown out on the west coast, they came back to the east coast and gave their best performance of the year.
2* Ravens +9.5 -105 - The Bengals are coming off that emotional loss to the Colts, and they can't stop the run at all, which is the strength of the Ravens offense. The last couple weeks, the Ravens have been more energized, and it is showing on the field. Cincy has struggled at home (1-3 ATS), and I always like big underdogs with low totals.
4* Steelers +8.5 @ Colts - I get a starting quarterback with a career record of 18-1, a team who almost never loses on MNF, the better coach, running game, and defense, AND two scores???? Count me in. This play may be upgraded.

3* Bears @ Buccaneers Under 33 - Two young quarterbacks who won't be asked to do anything against these very good defenses. This game might be over by 3:30 EST with all the running plays.
3* Browns @ Vikings Under 39.5 - Neither team is going to pass the ball very often. The Browns have a good back in Droughns, and Dilfer at QB always is a game manager as opposed to someone who lights up the scoreboard. The Browns average going under the total by more than anyone in the league.