Give me a reason not to unload on NE/SD Over 47?

imgv94 · 01-07-2007, 04:33 PM

Damn this looks good!!

bigboydan · 01-07-2007, 04:41 PM

Martyball?

onlòóker · 01-08-2007, 09:29 PM

I have yet to cap the game, but I will let you know if I take the over or under in this one.

tblues2005 · 01-09-2007, 04:26 AM

So far the unders have done better than the overs did last week. I would be careful to take an over when it is over 45. I think San Deigo's defense is underated so I am not going to play the over in this one.

Redchevy · 01-09-2007, 06:27 AM

I'm unsure of this total myself, I think NE puts up 28-30 points here, but what scares me is NE's D has been playing excellent run D. If Rivers gets rattled and turns it over a couple of times or the team comes out a little flat after the bye, SD might not get the other 17-20. Just my .02

imgv94 · 01-09-2007, 01:57 PM

SD will get at least 30 in here..

Razz · 01-09-2007, 02:22 PM

Everyone talks about these offenses, and sure, they're great. But, the defenses are just as good, and I think this game could easily be in the 20-17 range.

The Patriots have given up 17, 17, 17, 13, 10, 6, 7, 27, 17, 0, 13, 21, 21, 7, 21, 23, and 16 points this season. That's 14.8 ppg. The Patriots are only giving up 13.5 ppg on the road this season.

The Chargers have given up 0, 7, 16, 13, 19, 30, 24, 25, 41, 27, 14, 21, 20, 9, 17, and 20 points this season. That's 18.9 ppg. Take away the four games without Merriman, and the Chargers gave up 15.5 ppg. They also gave up 15.5 ppg at home this season.

This total is too high, especially for a playoff game where you would expect a more conservative gameplan from Schott. The reason I'm not playing under is that I expect Bellichick to come out in four and five wides trying to exploit the lone Chargers weakness - the secondary.

Dark Horse · 01-09-2007, 02:26 PM

In my experience the trigger area for overs is for posted totals higher than 38 and lower than 45.5. Anything higher than that and it evens out. This line opened at 42.5 and is now 46.5.

Skipping 44 and 45 is huge (about 7% of games end on that number). If you do still want the over, get it before it hits 47 (47 and 48 combine for about 8 percent of all totals).

sonnythekid · 01-11-2007, 04:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Razz

Everyone talks about these offenses, and sure, they're great. But, the defenses are just as good, and I think this game could easily be in the 20-17 range.

The Patriots have given up 17, 17, 17, 13, 10, 6, 7, 27, 17, 0, 13, 21, 21, 7, 21, 23, and 16 points this season. That's 14.8 ppg. The Patriots are only giving up 13.5 ppg on the road this season.

The Chargers have given up 0, 7, 16, 13, 19, 30, 24, 25, 41, 27, 14, 21, 20, 9, 17, and 20 points this season. That's 18.9 ppg. Take away the four games without Merriman, and the Chargers gave up 15.5 ppg. They also gave up 15.5 ppg at home this season.

This total is too high, especially for a playoff game where you would expect a more conservative gameplan from Schott. The reason I'm not playing under is that I expect Bellichick to come out in four and five wides trying to exploit the lone Chargers weakness - the secondary.

Razz, i totally agreed with you.