Need Help from the Line Movement Experts

TLD · 10-31-2006, 01:57 PM

OK, I’ve never developed much of a sense for predicting line movements, but I know some people are pretty good at anticipating such things and can make money taking “leads” for middles and such.

I just put a big wager on BALT –2.5 on a promotion. I’m going to middle/scalp at least most of it. The question is when to close it out.

Right now I see I can play CINN +2.5 for a 13 cent scalp, or I can play CINN +3 and have to pay only 5 cents for that middle. (Of those, I like the latter slightly better, as most folks who’ve crunched numbers seem to value the half point off the 3 at 20 cents or a little more.)

But which way is this line going to go? Should I wait until later in the week and expect to get a better price on CINN? If I wait, will I wake up one morning, check the lines, and discover I can no longer even break even on the play? Where do you see this line headed from here?

Dark Horse · 10-31-2006, 02:00 PM

The line will probably stay at 3. Money is coming in on both sides pretty evenly.

It will be a brave book that goes under 3, because they will get sided big.
Anything's possible though.

Justin7 · 10-31-2006, 02:49 PM

It's very hard to predict line movements. Sometimes you'll know an opener is off, but otherwise it is almost random. If you CAN predict the moves, you will be rich in no time.

Dark Horse · 10-31-2006, 03:39 PM

If you look at the money coming in you can often predict line movements. Right now, almost everybody is on CHI which opened at -13.5. If that line doesn't reach 14 or more I'll gladly eat those words. (not counting injury to key player).

TLD · 10-31-2006, 07:14 PM

I was able to bet BALT –2.5, -115 on the promo. Pinnacle moved to CINN +3, +112 and I just grabbed it to complete the middle shot. So I only had to pay 3 cents for a real whopper of a middle on the 3. Decided not to gamble that it would get more favorable later in the week.