Anyone want to put together the perfect 3 team 10 pt Teaser together?

imgv94 · 10-17-2006, 04:41 PM

So give me your teaser possibilties and we will come up with a solid teaser. I think it is pretty obvious we are going to have these 2 teams as selections...

JAX PK
INDY PK

Am I right? YES I AM !!!!!

Does anyone see JAX losing to the horrible Texans off a bye?
Does anyone see Wash who couldn't even beat the Titans @ Home going to Indy and defeating Peyton and Co? I will answer that question for you

NO

So what will be our 3rd selection, let's be smart with this...

GO AHEAD!!!

Ganchrow · 10-17-2006, 05:21 PM

Just out of curiosity, imgv, what would you guage the % chances of each of Jax and Indy winning their respective games SU?

imgv94 · 10-17-2006, 05:27 PM

JAX 90%

INDY 95%

How about you?

Bulldog · 10-17-2006, 05:54 PM

Hey IMG, Ill take a shot...
I think Seattle +3.5 at home would be the best choice to complete that teaser...
Sounds good to me...

imgv94 · 10-17-2006, 06:02 PM

Seattle never loses @ Home you make a great point..

Doc JS · 10-17-2006, 06:12 PM

Does anyone see Wash who couldn't even beat the Titans @ Home going to Indy and defeating Peyton and Co?

imgv,
Are you at all worried about the Colts inability to stop the run?

So what will be our 3rd selection, let's be smart with this...

I would second the Seahawks pick. Seattle getting 3.5 at home where they pretty much never lose looks good to me.

The other team I'd offer for consideration is Pittsburgh getting +7.5 in Atlanta. I don't think Atlanta will have great success running against Pittsburgh. And Vick can't beat them with just his arm.

Just my .02 worth!

Doc JS

Bulldog · 10-17-2006, 06:14 PM

Right...
And even it they lose (which I dont see happening) it shouldnt be for more than a FG...
Plus the Vikings are worse than their record imo...

dave11486 · 10-17-2006, 06:45 PM

Carolina +13 is my favorite, #2 NYG +13.5, #3 Sea +3.5

nosuzieno · 10-17-2006, 06:50 PM

I like Clev +14.5, coming off bye week and facing a Broncos team that could only muster 13 at home against Oak. Broncos have only scored more than 14 once and that was 17 at NE...

psycho44 · 10-17-2006, 07:07 PM

Indiana +41.5

Ohio St hasn't scored more than 38 points in all 7 of their wins. They will need to put together 42 points if the can shut out Indiana, so realistically they will need to score 50 points.

bmac · 10-17-2006, 07:25 PM

here is a teaser i was looking at. would cost some $$$ but may be worth it? your thoughts?

4 Team Teaser
New England Patriots +7
Philadelphia Eagles +7½
Cincinnati Bengals +9½
Denver Broncos +8

bmac · 10-17-2006, 07:41 PM

I ate lunch at CB+potts the other weekend and sat next to KubiaK (he was in town to see his son play). I talked to him some....He looked depressed. I assume it was because the texans suck so bad. lol .... I don't really see them beating JAX.

Ganchrow · 10-17-2006, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imgv94

JAX 90%

INDY 95%

How about you?

Well considering I don't bet football and couldn't even tell you offhand either teams' record, I'm not sure how my own appraisal of the respective win probabilities would be particularly relevant.

Nevertheless, if you really pushed me, I'd defer to the skills of Pinnacle's lines makers and at this exact moment in time give each of them a rather placid 80.67% probability of straight up victory.

My only point is that when you consider that you can currently pick up either of the Jax or Indy money lines at -450, (implying, based on your probability estimates, enormous expected returns of 10% and 16% respectively), you may want to give serious consideration to using some of the funds you might otherwise have you used on this as of yet incomplete teaser to lay some money on each of the two straight-up bets. The advantages of doing this is would be threefold:

You can vary the relative size of your bets such that you have more exposure to the superior Indy line in accordance with Kelly)
You don't lock yourself into betting all the proceeds of your first wager (should you win it) on the outcome of the second but rather can tailor your bet size to your own risk and bankroll characteristics (once again, in accordance with Kelly).
You don't need to force a third leg of the teaser, and in fact could even lay down a sizable wager immediately. If the lines truly are as grossly mispriced as you've hypothesized it would seem likely that by the time you've finally decided on the third leg, one or both of the lines you've identified will have moved against you.

Another possibility would be just parlaying the two money lines at -203 without any tease. While this would only be more Kelly-friendly than the 10-point 3-team teaser insofar as you'd have one fewer team with which to contend, there could be further advantages (or dis) depending on the actual teaser price.

Anyway, just looking out for you.

RickySteve · 10-17-2006, 08:46 PM

I nominate Ganchrow for sainthood.

Siuman · 10-17-2006, 08:48 PM

I gotta go with Sea at home, even without Alexander

imgv94 · 10-17-2006, 09:32 PM

Ganchrow

Interesting input there.. I just checked out the parlay odds at Pinnacle and it came out @ -215. Which is not bad considering both wagers should be easy winners.

Also I like how you labeled it "force a third leg" which in past has bit me in the ass. I can recall numerous times where the "forced play" was the one that eventually lost..

Great stuff Ganch and RickySteve is correct you are good!!!