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Old 10-06-06, 09:30 PM   #1
Ganchrow
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Default Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

<style> .ganch { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> Spread </td> <td align=left class=ganch> &nbsp;N </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Std. Err. </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Freq.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 0 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 699 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 1 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,213 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.44% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 2 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,703 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.07% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 3 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,954 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.54% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 9.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 4 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3,019 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.32% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.28% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 5 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3,207 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.22% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.59% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 6 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,160 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.39% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 7 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,918 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.51% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 5.16% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 8 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,845 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.06% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 9 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,447 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.04% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 10 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 917 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.71% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.80% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 11 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 793 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.54% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.40% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 12 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 610 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.66% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 13 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 397 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.66% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.76% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 14 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 311 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.18% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.50% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 15 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 258 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.77% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.55% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 16 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 146 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.35% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.74% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 17 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 84 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.58% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 5.95% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 18 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 57 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.74% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.75% </td> </tr> </table>
<hr><span style="font-size: 11px;">Methodology:</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.</span>


Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies
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Old 10-06-06, 10:09 PM   #2
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That is interesting. Thank you!
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Old 10-07-06, 12:55 AM   #3
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do you have the nubers for college?
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Old 10-07-06, 01:50 AM   #4
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Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).

I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.
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Old 10-07-06, 01:57 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyy11
do you have the nubers for college?
See the College Football forum.
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Old 10-07-06, 11:48 AM   #6
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Interesting, I always felt 14 pushed more than most people thought, a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17
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Old 10-07-06, 12:06 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rm18
a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17
Just remember tha the sample size for 17-spread games is only 46.
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Old 10-08-06, 09:23 AM   #8
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Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.
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Old 10-08-06, 09:25 AM   #9
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Thanks for posting this Ganch.
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Old 10-08-06, 11:19 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ivyconniver
Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.
I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?
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Old 10-08-06, 11:31 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganchrow
I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?
Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.
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Old 10-08-06, 11:54 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ivyconniver
Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.
Code:
|MOV|	Games	%
0	8	0.142%
1	232	4.108%
2	204	3.613%
3	878	15.548%
4	303	5.366%
5	177	3.134%
6	315	5.578%
7	478	8.465%
8	152	2.692%
9	99	1.753%
10	336	5.950%
11	187	3.311%
12	90	1.594%
13	176	3.117%
14	280	4.958%
15	94	1.665%
16	114	2.019%
17	222	3.931%
18	116	2.054%
19	70	1.240%
20	140	2.479%
21	145	2.568%
22	53	0.939%
23	64	1.133%
24	116	2.054%
25	56	0.992%
26	35	0.620%
27	94	1.665%
28	86	1.523%
29	18	0.319%
30	29	0.514%
31	65	1.151%
32	30	0.531%
33	14	0.248%
34	38	0.673%
35	32	0.567%
36	9	0.159%
37	14	0.248%
38	26	0.460%
39	6	0.106%
40	2	0.035%
41	12	0.213%
42	11	0.195%
43	3	0.053%
44	3	0.053%
45	4	0.071%
46	3	0.053%
48	3	0.053%
49	2	0.035%
51	1	0.018%
54	1	0.018%
55	1	0.018%
Total	5647	100.000%
1985 - 2007 seasons, not including playoff games.
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Old 10-19-06, 09:56 AM   #13
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Ganchrow-

The push frequencies change depending on the spread and total. I.E. a "3" will land about 10% of the time if the home team is a 3-point favorite; but if it is a 14 point favorite, it drops to under 7%.

do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?
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Old 10-19-06, 02:23 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin7
do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?
As you and I just discussed, the above table corresponds to games within 2 points of the given spread.
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Old 10-24-06, 09:55 AM   #15
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Thanks for posting, I was looking for updated info recently.
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Old 12-04-06, 03:33 PM   #16
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Default Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

<style> .ganch { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> Total </td> <td align=left class=ganch> &nbsp;N </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Std. Err. </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Freq.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 29 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 22 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.00% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 30 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 64 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.03% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 6.25% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 31 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 145 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.97% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.38% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 32 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 334 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.52% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.90% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 33 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 565 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.80% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.72% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 34 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 860 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.57% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.91% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 35 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,327 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.37% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.88% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 36 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,766 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.93% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 37 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,921 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.48% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.58% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 38 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,113 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.35% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.70% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 39 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,190 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.26% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.51% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 40 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2,046 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.33% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.35% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 41 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,978 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.43% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.89% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 42 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,957 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.27% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.43% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 43 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,814 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.38% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.65% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 44 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,532 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.45% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.13% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 45 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,312 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.51% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.58% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 46 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1,086 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.42% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.93% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 47 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 757 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.73% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 4.23% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 48 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 548 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.67% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.55% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 49 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 366 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 0.61% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.37% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 50 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 223 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.25% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 3.59% </td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 51 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 137 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 1.44% </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 2.92% </td> </tr> </table>
<hr> <span style="font-size: 11px;">Methodology:</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (data from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for the frequncy of various totals.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with a closing over/under within 2 points of the over/under in question ending with a total equal to that over/unders. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 42 was determined from all games with a closing over/under between 40 and 44.</span>
  • <span style="font-size: 11px;">This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.</span>
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Old 01-22-07, 02:01 PM   #17
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Default NFL Spread/ML Equivalency Charts

<style> .ats { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } </style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=30> <tr> <td>At Even Odds: <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>Spread</td> <td class=ats align=left>Prob.</td> <td class=ats align=left>ML</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>0 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>50.00%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±100.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>0½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>50.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±100.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>51.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±104.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>52.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±108.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>53.02%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±112.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>53.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±116.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>58.78%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±142.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>62.22%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±164.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>63.84%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±176.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>64.75%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±183.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>65.94%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±193.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>66.56%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±199.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>68.53%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±217.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>69.44%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±227.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>73.20%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±273.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>74.58%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±293.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>75.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±314.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>76.27%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±321.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>77.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±335.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>77.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±340.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>80.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±416.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>81.45%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±439.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>83.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±498.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>83.65%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±511.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>84.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±551.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>84.82%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±558.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>86.83%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±659.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>87.13%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±677.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>90.34%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±934.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>90.68%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±972.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>91.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1128.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>91.96%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1144.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>93.63%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1468.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>93.74%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±1497.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17 EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>96.61%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±2850.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17½ EV </td> <td class=ats align=right>96.71%</td> <td class=ats align=right> ±2940.5</td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> At -110: <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>Spread</td> <td class=ats align=right>Prob.</td> <td class=ats align=right>Fave ML</td> <td class=ats align=right>Dog ML</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>PK -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>50.00%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-110.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>-110.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>0½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>50.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-110.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>-109.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>51.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-115.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>-105.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>1½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>52.08%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-120.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>-100.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>53.02%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-125.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>+103.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>2½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>53.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-129.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+106.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>58.78%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-160.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+131.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>3½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>62.22%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-187.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+152.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>63.84%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-201.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+163.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>4½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>64.75%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-210.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+170.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>65.94%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-223.4</td> <td class=ats align=right>+180.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>5½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>66.56%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-230.3</td> <td class=ats align=right>+185.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>68.53%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-254.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+203.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>6½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>69.44%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-266.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+212.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>73.20%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-311.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>+260.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>7½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>74.58%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-357.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+275.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>75.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-387.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+295.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>8½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>76.27%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-397.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+302.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>77.05%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-418.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+315.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>9½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>77.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-425.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+320.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>80.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-544.4</td> <td class=ats align=right>+393.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>10½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>81.45%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-581.5</td> <td class=ats align=right>+414.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>83.28%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-684.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+471.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>11½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>83.65%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-708.7</td> <td class=ats align=right>+483.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>84.64%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-782.8</td> <td class=ats align=right>+521.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>12½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>84.82%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-797.7</td> <td class=ats align=right>+528.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>86.83%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1006.4</td> <td class=ats align=right>+624.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>13½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>87.13%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1046.9</td> <td class=ats align=right>+641.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>90.34%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1765.2</td> <td class=ats align=right>+887.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>14½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>90.68%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-1899.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>+924.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>91.86%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-2553.3</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1072.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>15½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>91.96%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-2632.6</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1087.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>93.63%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-5121.0</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1397.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>16½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>93.74%</td> <td class=ats align=right>-5466.1</td> <td class=ats align=right>+1424.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17 -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>96.61%</td> <td class=ats align=right></td> <td class=ats align=right></td> </tr> <tr> <td class=ats align=left>17½ -110</td> <td class=ats align=right>96.71%</td> <td class=ats align=right></td> <td class=ats align=right></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table>
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Old 04-09-07, 03:46 PM   #18
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this stuff is impressive. glad i joined the site.
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Old 08-28-07, 02:59 PM   #19
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Thank you for posting this. Excellent information.
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Old 08-28-07, 06:06 PM   #20
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Quote:
The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
why??

wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??
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Old 08-28-07, 06:16 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorpion View Post
why??

wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??
No. Because sample sizes are so small, we look at a larger radius in order to effectively increase the data set. This is a standard technique for this sort of analysis.

See Wong, Chapters 13-14.
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Old 09-09-07, 05:13 PM   #22
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WOW didn't know that info. Thank you for posting this. Excellent information
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Old 09-19-07, 09:28 PM   #23
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Agreed.thanx for the info and the sleepless nights trying to figure out what to do with it
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Old 09-26-07, 11:26 PM   #24
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great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?
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Old 09-26-07, 11:32 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madsiz View Post
great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?
Thanks.

You might want to check out my Half-Point Calculator.
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Old 10-14-07, 11:41 PM   #26
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Outstanding info. Thanx!
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Old 10-18-07, 08:39 AM   #27
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That 17 frequency is very interesting considering the Pats game. Ordinarily I wouldn't recommend teasers at such a high number...maybe it is worth it
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Old 10-18-07, 08:53 AM   #28
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The 17 figure of 8.70% is for N=46. That's a very sample size, corresponding to a standard error of about 4.20%. I'd personally not embark on major changes in my own strategy based on so small a dataset.

The updated data in my Half-Point Calculator gives a figure of 4.55% (with a standard error of 2.60%), a much more realistic figure.
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Old 11-05-07, 03:41 AM   #29
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Monday Night Football: Baltimore and the under
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Old 11-07-07, 09:17 PM   #30
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Thanks for the info...Good Luck!
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Old 11-11-07, 05:34 AM   #31
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Play money line for Jacksonville!!!!!!! They will win easily!!!!!!!!!
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Old 01-25-08, 09:46 PM   #32
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Thanks for the post!

GO GIANTS in the SB!!!
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Old 02-08-08, 02:56 PM   #33
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Very interesting
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Old 08-07-08, 09:25 AM   #34
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Others have already said this but never-the-less, thank you for posting this information and looking forward to seeing it updated week-by-week.
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Old 09-04-08, 01:15 AM   #35
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Nice job.. how about college info... thanks
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