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#1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.
Methodology:
Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies
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#2 | ||||
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That is interesting. Thank you!
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#3 | ||||
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do you have the nubers for college?
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#4 | ||||
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Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).
I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile. |
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#5 | |||||
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Quote:
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#6 | ||||
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Interesting, I always felt 14 pushed more than most people thought, a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17
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#7 | |||||
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Quote:
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#8 | ||||
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Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?
I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed. |
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#9 | ||||
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Thanks for posting this Ganch.
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Stern and the NBA are about as legit as Creditwagering. |
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#10 | |||||
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Quote:
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#11 | |||||
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Quote:
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#12 | |||||
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Quote:
Code:
|MOV| Games % 0 8 0.142% 1 232 4.108% 2 204 3.613% 3 878 15.548% 4 303 5.366% 5 177 3.134% 6 315 5.578% 7 478 8.465% 8 152 2.692% 9 99 1.753% 10 336 5.950% 11 187 3.311% 12 90 1.594% 13 176 3.117% 14 280 4.958% 15 94 1.665% 16 114 2.019% 17 222 3.931% 18 116 2.054% 19 70 1.240% 20 140 2.479% 21 145 2.568% 22 53 0.939% 23 64 1.133% 24 116 2.054% 25 56 0.992% 26 35 0.620% 27 94 1.665% 28 86 1.523% 29 18 0.319% 30 29 0.514% 31 65 1.151% 32 30 0.531% 33 14 0.248% 34 38 0.673% 35 32 0.567% 36 9 0.159% 37 14 0.248% 38 26 0.460% 39 6 0.106% 40 2 0.035% 41 12 0.213% 42 11 0.195% 43 3 0.053% 44 3 0.053% 45 4 0.071% 46 3 0.053% 48 3 0.053% 49 2 0.035% 51 1 0.018% 54 1 0.018% 55 1 0.018% Total 5647 100.000%
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#13 | ||||
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Ganchrow-
The push frequencies change depending on the spread and total. I.E. a "3" will land about 10% of the time if the home team is a 3-point favorite; but if it is a 14 point favorite, it drops to under 7%. do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread? |
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#14 | |||||
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Quote:
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#15 | ||||
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Thanks for posting, I was looking for updated info recently.
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#16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.
Methodology:
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#18 | ||||
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this stuff is impressive. glad i joined the site.
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#19 | ||||
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Thank you for posting this. Excellent information.
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#20 | |||||
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wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate?? |
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#21 | |||||
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See Wong, Chapters 13-14.
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#22 | ||||
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WOW didn't know that info. Thank you for posting this. Excellent information
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#23 | ||||
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Agreed.thanx for the info and the sleepless nights trying to figure out what to do with it
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#24 | ||||
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great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?
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#25 | |||||
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You might want to check out my Half-Point Calculator.
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#26 | ||||
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Outstanding info. Thanx!
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#27 | ||||
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That 17 frequency is very interesting considering the Pats game. Ordinarily I wouldn't recommend teasers at such a high number...maybe it is worth it
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#28 | ||||
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The 17 figure of 8.70% is for N=46. That's a very sample size, corresponding to a standard error of about 4.20%. I'd personally not embark on major changes in my own strategy based on so small a dataset.
The updated data in my Half-Point Calculator gives a figure of 4.55% (with a standard error of 2.60%), a much more realistic figure.
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#29 | ||||
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Monday Night Football: Baltimore and the under
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#30 | ||||
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Thanks for the info...Good Luck!
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#31 | ||||
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Play money line for Jacksonville!!!!!!! They will win easily!!!!!!!!!
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#32 | ||||
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Thanks for the post!
GO GIANTS in the SB!!! |
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#33 | ||||
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Very interesting
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#34 | ||||
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Others have already said this but never-the-less, thank you for posting this information and looking forward to seeing it updated week-by-week.
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2009 MLB Season 332-321-9, 50.8 win rate, +$7,599.26, +75.99 units All records current as of completed games 06.28.09 |
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#35 | ||||
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Nice job.. how about college info... thanks
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