[Ganchrow]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Spread	N	Std. Err.	Freq.
0	699	0.00%	0.00%
1	2,213	0.33%	2.44%
2	2,703	0.27%	2.07%
3	2,954	0.54%	9.38%
4	3,019	0.32%	3.28%
5	3,207	0.22%	1.59%
6	2,160	0.39%	3.38%
7	1,918	0.51%	5.16%
8	1,845	0.33%	2.06%
9	1,447	0.27%	1.04%
10	917	0.71%	4.80%
11	793	0.54%	2.40%
12	610	0.33%	0.66%
13	397	0.66%	1.76%
14	311	1.18%	4.50%
15	258	0.77%	1.55%
16	146	1.35%	2.74%
17	84	2.58%	5.95%
18	57	1.74%	1.75%

---

Methodology:

• All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies

[Don Dollars]

That is interesting. Thank you!

[scottyy11]

do you have the nubers for college?

[darkghost]

Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).

I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by scottyy11

do you have the nubers for college?

See the College Football forum.

[rm18]

Interesting, I always felt 14 pushed more than most people thought, a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by rm18

a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17

Just remember tha the sample size for 17-spread games is only 46.

[ivyconniver]

Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.

[moses millsap]

Thanks for posting this Ganch.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by ivyconniver

Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.

I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?

[ivyconniver]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?

Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by ivyconniver

Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.

|MOV|	Games	%
0	8	0.142%
1	232	4.108%
2	204	3.613%
3	878	15.548%
4	303	5.366%
5	177	3.134%
6	315	5.578%
7	478	8.465%
8	152	2.692%
9	99	1.753%
10	336	5.950%
11	187	3.311%
12	90	1.594%
13	176	3.117%
14	280	4.958%
15	94	1.665%
16	114	2.019%
17	222	3.931%
18	116	2.054%
19	70	1.240%
20	140	2.479%
21	145	2.568%
22	53	0.939%
23	64	1.133%
24	116	2.054%
25	56	0.992%
26	35	0.620%
27	94	1.665%
28	86	1.523%
29	18	0.319%
30	29	0.514%
31	65	1.151%
32	30	0.531%
33	14	0.248%
34	38	0.673%
35	32	0.567%
36	9	0.159%
37	14	0.248%
38	26	0.460%
39	6	0.106%
40	2	0.035%
41	12	0.213%
42	11	0.195%
43	3	0.053%
44	3	0.053%
45	4	0.071%
46	3	0.053%
48	3	0.053%
49	2	0.035%
51	1	0.018%
54	1	0.018%
55	1	0.018%
Total	5647	100.000%

1985 - 2007 seasons, not including playoff games.

[Justin7]

Ganchrow-

The push frequencies change depending on the spread and total. I.E. a "3" will land about 10% of the time if the home team is a 3-point favorite; but if it is a 14 point favorite, it drops to under 7%.

do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Justin7

do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?

As you and I just discussed, the above table corresponds to games within 2 points of the given spread.

[patswin]

Thanks for posting, I was looking for updated info recently.

[Ganchrow]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Total	N	Std. Err.	Freq.
29	22	0.00%	0.00%
30	64	3.03%	6.25%
31	145	0.97%	1.38%
32	334	0.52%	0.90%
33	565	0.80%	3.72%
34	860	0.57%	2.91%
35	1,327	0.37%	1.88%
36	1,766	0.33%	1.93%
37	1,921	0.48%	4.58%
38	2,113	0.35%	2.70%
39	2,190	0.26%	1.51%
40	2,046	0.33%	2.35%
41	1,978	0.43%	3.89%
42	1,957	0.27%	1.43%
43	1,814	0.38%	2.65%
44	1,532	0.45%	3.13%
45	1,312	0.51%	3.58%
46	1,086	0.42%	1.93%
47	757	0.73%	4.23%
48	548	0.67%	2.55%
49	366	0.61%	1.37%
50	223	1.25%	3.59%
51	137	1.44%	2.92%

---

Methodology:

• All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (data from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for the frequncy of various totals.
• The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with a closing over/under within 2 points of the over/under in question ending with a total equal to that over/unders. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 42 was determined from all games with a closing over/under between 40 and 44.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

[Ganchrow]

At Even Odds: Spread Prob. ML 0 EV 50.00% ±100.0 0½ EV 50.05% ±100.2 1 EV 51.08% ±104.4 1½ EV 52.08% ±108.7 2 EV 53.02% ±112.9 2½ EV 53.86% ±116.7 3 EV 58.78% ±142.6 3½ EV 62.22% ±164.7 4 EV 63.84% ±176.5 4½ EV 64.75% ±183.7 5 EV 65.94% ±193.6 5½ EV 66.56% ±199.0 6 EV 68.53% ±217.8 6½ EV 69.44% ±227.2 7 EV 73.20% ±273.1 7½ EV 74.58% ±293.3 8 EV 75.86% ±314.3 8½ EV 76.27% ±321.4 9 EV 77.05% ±335.7 9½ EV 77.28% ±340.1 10 EV 80.64% ±416.6 10½ EV 81.45% ±439.0 11 EV 83.28% ±498.2 11½ EV 83.65% ±511.7 12 EV 84.64% ±551.1 12½ EV 84.82% ±558.8 13 EV 86.83% ±659.1 13½ EV 87.13% ±677.1 14 EV 90.34% ±934.9 14½ EV 90.68% ±972.9 15 EV 91.86% ±1128.0 15½ EV 91.96% ±1144.0 16 EV 93.63% ±1468.9 16½ EV 93.74% ±1497.3 17 EV 96.61% ±2850.2 17½ EV 96.71% ±2940.5

At -110: Spread Prob. Fave ML Dog ML PK -110 50.00% -110.0 -110.0 0½ -110 50.05% -110.2 -109.8 1 -110 51.08% -115.1 -105.1 1½ -110 52.08% -120.1 -100.8 2 -110 53.02% -125.0 +103.2 2½ -110 53.86% -129.5 +106.9 3 -110 58.78% -160.2 +131.5 3½ -110 62.22% -187.2 +152.7 4 -110 63.84% -201.9 +163.9 4½ -110 64.75% -210.9 +170.8 5 -110 65.94% -223.4 +180.3 5½ -110 66.56% -230.3 +185.4 6 -110 68.53% -254.5 +203.3 6½ -110 69.44% -266.9 +212.3 7 -110 73.20% -311.0 +260.9 7½ -110 74.58% -357.2 +275.4 8 -110 75.86% -387.2 +295.4 8½ -110 76.27% -397.5 +302.2 9 -110 77.05% -418.5 +315.9 9½ -110 77.28% -425.2 +320.1 10 -110 80.64% -544.4 +393.1 10½ -110 81.45% -581.5 +414.5 11 -110 83.28% -684.2 +471.0 11½ -110 83.65% -708.7 +483.9 12 -110 84.64% -782.8 +521.5 12½ -110 84.82% -797.7 +528.9 13 -110 86.83% -1006.4 +624.6 13½ -110 87.13% -1046.9 +641.8 14 -110 90.34% -1765.2 +887.8 14½ -110 90.68% -1899.1 +924.2 15 -110 91.86% -2553.3 +1072.2 15½ -110 91.96% -2632.6 +1087.4 16 -110 93.63% -5121.0 +1397.6 16½ -110 93.74% -5466.1 +1424.7 17 -110 96.61% 17½ -110 96.71%

[brewer]

this stuff is impressive. glad i joined the site.

[Don Dollars]

Thank you for posting this. Excellent information.

[Scorpion]

The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.

why??

wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Scorpion

why??

wHY NOT JUST SAY if the line is 3, 88 out of 860 times the fav wins by 3pts...10.23%...wouldnt this be more accurate??

No. Because sample sizes are so small, we look at a larger radius in order to effectively increase the data set. This is a standard technique for this sort of analysis.

See Wong, Chapters 13-14.

[swifty]

WOW didn't know that info. Thank you for posting this. Excellent information

[Skidcom]

Agreed.thanx for the info and the sleepless nights trying to figure out what to do with it

[madsiz]

great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by madsiz

great stuff granchow, anyone know how to determine what the value of each point is from this info?

Thanks.

You might want to check out my Half-Point Calculator.

[sharktank1]

Outstanding info. Thanx!

[Skidcom]

That 17 frequency is very interesting considering the Pats game. Ordinarily I wouldn't recommend teasers at such a high number...maybe it is worth it

[Ganchrow]

The 17 figure of 8.70% is for N=46. That's a very sample size, corresponding to a standard error of about 4.20%. I'd personally not embark on major changes in my own strategy based on so small a dataset.

The updated data in my Half-Point Calculator gives a figure of 4.55% (with a standard error of 2.60%), a much more realistic figure.

[babytyger]

Monday Night Football: Baltimore and the under

[CrapsMyWay]

Thanks for the info...Good Luck!

[babytyger]

Play money line for Jacksonville!!!!!!! They will win easily!!!!!!!!!

[Poker_Beast]

Thanks for the post!

GO GIANTS in the SB!!!

[INVEGA MAN]

Very interesting

[TodaysAction]

Others have already said this but never-the-less, thank you for posting this information and looking forward to seeing it updated week-by-week.

[TensaZangetsu]

Nice job.. how about college info... thanks