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10-06-2006, 10:30 PM
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
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Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
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Estimated NFL ATS and Over/Under Push Frequencies
For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.
| Spread | N | Std. Err. | Freq.
| | 0 | 699 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 1 | 2,213 | 0.33% | 2.44% | | 2 | 2,703 | 0.27% | 2.07% | | 3 | 2,954 | 0.54% | 9.38% | | 4 | 3,019 | 0.32% | 3.28% | | 5 | 3,207 | 0.22% | 1.59% | | 6 | 2,160 | 0.39% | 3.38% | | 7 | 1,918 | 0.51% | 5.16% | | 8 | 1,845 | 0.33% | 2.06% | | 9 | 1,447 | 0.27% | 1.04% | | 10 | 917 | 0.71% | 4.80% | | 11 | 793 | 0.54% | 2.40% | | 12 | 610 | 0.33% | 0.66% | | 13 | 397 | 0.66% | 1.76% | | 14 | 311 | 1.18% | 4.50% | | 15 | 258 | 0.77% | 1.55% | | 16 | 146 | 1.35% | 2.74% | | 17 | 84 | 2.58% | 5.95% | | 18 | 57 | 1.74% | 1.75% |
Methodology:- All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
- The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
- This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies
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10-06-2006, 11:09 PM
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#2 (permalink)
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SBR High Roller
Join Date: 09-04-06
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That is interesting. Thank you!
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10-07-2006, 01:55 AM
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#3 (permalink)
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 03-08-06
Posts: 698
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do you have the nubers for college?
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10-07-2006, 02:50 AM
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#4 (permalink)
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 09-19-05
Posts: 868
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Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).
I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.
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10-07-2006, 02:57 AM
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#5 (permalink)
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by scottyy11
do you have the nubers for college?
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See the College Football forum.
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10-07-2006, 12:48 PM
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#6 (permalink)
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-20-05
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Interesting, I always felt 14 pushed more than most people thought, a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17
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10-07-2006, 01:06 PM
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#7 (permalink)
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rm18
a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17
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Just remember tha the sample size for 17-spread games is only 46.
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10-08-2006, 10:23 AM
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#8 (permalink)
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SBR Sharp
Join Date: 09-07-06
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Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?
I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.
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10-08-2006, 10:25 AM
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#9 (permalink)
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 08-25-05
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Thanks for posting this Ganch.
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10-08-2006, 12:19 PM
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#10 (permalink)
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ivyconniver
Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?
I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.
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I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?
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10-08-2006, 12:31 PM
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#11 (permalink)
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SBR Sharp
Join Date: 09-07-06
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ganchrow
I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?
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Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.
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10-08-2006, 12:54 PM
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#12 (permalink)
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ivyconniver
Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.
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Code:
|MOV| Games %
0 8 0.142%
1 232 4.108%
2 204 3.613%
3 878 15.548%
4 303 5.366%
5 177 3.134%
6 315 5.578%
7 478 8.465%
8 152 2.692%
9 99 1.753%
10 336 5.950%
11 187 3.311%
12 90 1.594%
13 176 3.117%
14 280 4.958%
15 94 1.665%
16 114 2.019%
17 222 3.931%
18 116 2.054%
19 70 1.240%
20 140 2.479%
21 145 2.568%
22 53 0.939%
23 64 1.133%
24 116 2.054%
25 56 0.992%
26 35 0.620%
27 94 1.665%
28 86 1.523%
29 18 0.319%
30 29 0.514%
31 65 1.151%
32 30 0.531%
33 14 0.248%
34 38 0.673%
35 32 0.567%
36 9 0.159%
37 14 0.248%
38 26 0.460%
39 6 0.106%
40 2 0.035%
41 12 0.213%
42 11 0.195%
43 3 0.053%
44 3 0.053%
45 4 0.071%
46 3 0.053%
48 3 0.053%
49 2 0.035%
51 1 0.018%
54 1 0.018%
55 1 0.018%
Total 5647 100.000%
1985 - 2007 seasons, not including playoff games.
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10-19-2006, 10:56 AM
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#13 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 2,341
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Ganchrow-
The push frequencies change depending on the spread and total. I.E. a "3" will land about 10% of the time if the home team is a 3-point favorite; but if it is a 14 point favorite, it drops to under 7%.
do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?
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10-19-2006, 03:23 PM
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#14 (permalink)
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Justin7
do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?
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As you and I just discussed, the above table corresponds to games within 2 points of the given spread.
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10-24-2006, 10:55 AM
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#15 (permalink)
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SBR High Roller
Join Date: 09-05-06
Posts: 185
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Thanks for posting, I was looking for updated info recently.
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12-04- | |