[Ganchrow]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Spread	N	Std. Err.	Freq.
0	699	0.00%	0.00%
1	2,213	0.33%	2.44%
2	2,703	0.27%	2.07%
3	2,954	0.54%	9.38%
4	3,019	0.32%	3.28%
5	3,207	0.22%	1.59%
6	2,160	0.39%	3.38%
7	1,918	0.51%	5.16%
8	1,845	0.33%	2.06%
9	1,447	0.27%	1.04%
10	917	0.71%	4.80%
11	793	0.54%	2.40%
12	610	0.33%	0.66%
13	397	0.66%	1.76%
14	311	1.18%	4.50%
15	258	0.77%	1.55%
16	146	1.35%	2.74%
17	84	2.58%	5.95%
18	57	1.74%	1.75%

---

Methodology:

• All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

Estimated NFL Over/Under Push Frequencies

[Don Dollars]

That is interesting. Thank you!

[scottyy11]

do you have the nubers for college?

[darkghost]

Not suprisingly, the top percentages of pushes come from lines of 3, 7 or some combination of the two. So the only profitable 1/2 pt middle using dime lines come from a push of 3 (ie. 3 & 2.5 or 3 & 3.5).

I'd also like to see the numbers for college games since the lines seem to be less consistent from book to book and also more volatile.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by scottyy11

do you have the nubers for college?

See the College Football forum.

[rm18]

Interesting, I always felt 14 pushed more than most people thought, a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by rm18

a little surprising how many games have landed right on 17

Just remember tha the sample size for 17-spread games is only 46.

[ivyconniver]

Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.

[moses millsap]

Thanks for posting this Ganch.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by ivyconniver

Can you put up the percentages of line spreads, and percentages of ending game point spreads too?

I get a feeling the numbers would be a lot more 3 and 7 centered for ending point spreads when taking into account the entire sample, rather than just the ones that pushed.

I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?

[ivyconniver]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

I'm not sure I'm understanding you -- are you just looking for the distribution of various margins of victory?

Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by ivyconniver

Yea, exactly. Sorry, I couldn't come up with the right terminology. But what I'm interested in seeing is the entire sample's distribution to the 3 and 7 multiples.

|MOV|	Games	%
0	8	0.142%
1	232	4.108%
2	204	3.613%
3	878	15.548%
4	303	5.366%
5	177	3.134%
6	315	5.578%
7	478	8.465%
8	152	2.692%
9	99	1.753%
10	336	5.950%
11	187	3.311%
12	90	1.594%
13	176	3.117%
14	280	4.958%
15	94	1.665%
16	114	2.019%
17	222	3.931%
18	116	2.054%
19	70	1.240%
20	140	2.479%
21	145	2.568%
22	53	0.939%
23	64	1.133%
24	116	2.054%
25	56	0.992%
26	35	0.620%
27	94	1.665%
28	86	1.523%
29	18	0.319%
30	29	0.514%
31	65	1.151%
32	30	0.531%
33	14	0.248%
34	38	0.673%
35	32	0.567%
36	9	0.159%
37	14	0.248%
38	26	0.460%
39	6	0.106%
40	2	0.035%
41	12	0.213%
42	11	0.195%
43	3	0.053%
44	3	0.053%
45	4	0.071%
46	3	0.053%
48	3	0.053%
49	2	0.035%
51	1	0.018%
54	1	0.018%
55	1	0.018%
Total	5647	100.000%

1985 - 2007 seasons, not including playoff games.

[Justin7]

Ganchrow-

The push frequencies change depending on the spread and total. I.E. a "3" will land about 10% of the time if the home team is a 3-point favorite; but if it is a 14 point favorite, it drops to under 7%.

do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Justin7

do you have push charts for only games within 1 point of the spread?

As you and I just discussed, the above table corresponds to games within 2 points of the given spread.

[patswin]

Thanks for posting, I was looking for updated info recently.