[Dark Horse]

Starting with power ratings at twominutewarning.com, I’m taking offensive efficiency x1, plus defensive efficiency x1.5, plus red zone efficiency x2. I then show the positive or negative units against the league average, divided by the number of games played by each team (3 or 4). This is not a power ranking for team strength, but should reflect a team’s efficiency by yardage with some accuracy. (Not included: strength of opponents) Compare to ratings at twominutewarning if you like.

1) SD +19.42
2) CHI +14.44
3) BAL +12.44
4) PHI +11.56
4) NE +11.56
6) KC +10.92
7) DEN +10.25
8) CIN +5.44
9) NO +5.06
---------------------------
10) STL +4.31
11) JAX +3.06
12) CAR +2.19
13) DAL +1.92
14) NYG -0.08
15) ATL -0.69
15) NYJ -0.69
17) IND -1.31
18) ARI -1.44
19) SEA -1.69
20) HOU -3.44
21) CLE -4.31
22) MIN -4.44
23) MIA -4.56
24) BUF -4.81
25) GB -4.94
---------------------------
26) WAS -6.44
27) TB -7.25
28) DET -10.12
29) TEN -10.13
30) PIT -11.92
31) SF -12.44
32) OAK -21.08

[Dark Horse]

FWIW, the teams with the edge in this rating went 10-3 ATS yesterday, and 13-0 SU. I take the difference for the teams playing each other and use that as a measuring stick. For instance, teams with edge of 15 pts or more were 3-0 ATS (SD 31.34; NE 16.52; CHI 19.25).

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks for this, DH -- it's another nice tool. Hope you can make it a weekly feature.

I love this methodology (as you know). Ranking the league every week (or every day for the NBA) is always the way to go, in my book. And it sure looks as if you're honing in on the right stuff to measure.

Obviously this is just one tool among many for your capping purposes, as neither of your games of the week jump off this page. Those seemed to be more based on a combo of basic power estimates and great instinct for the flow of the season. These numbers mildly confirm those picks, but couldn't have been driving them.

( I was against you on CAR/CLE but had the Brownies with 8.5. Everybody's a winner! )

[begolf25]

Great info DH. Be interesting to see how these trends continue throughout the season.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by Jay Edgar

Thanks for this, DH -- it's another nice tool. Hope you can make it a weekly feature.

..............

Obviously this is just one tool among many for your capping purposes, as neither of your games of the week jump off this page. Those seemed to be more based on a combo of basic power estimates and great instinct for the flow of the season. These numbers mildly confirm those picks, but couldn't have been driving them.

...............

You're right about this being just one tool. Even worse, it's only in the experimental stage, but with a head start like this (week 5 is where the numbers begin to settle), I'll continue if for the rest of the season and post the numbers.