Week 5 Plays and Discussion.

lid73 · 10-04-2006, 01:01 PM

Week 4 was a juice out at 5-5. So far I am carrying the stellar record of 13-15-2. A small loss for the first quarter of the season. After week 4, my numbers tend to narrow down the number of games to bet. I am looking now for teams that present overvalue on the spread, and have a good feel for their level of play:

This week, I am playing:

Ten +18 Ind - I actually have Indy favored by 24 here. I am going to lay 18 or, hopefully, a little less by game time. Ten is woefully bad. I can see Indy dropping 28 on them in the first half, with Ten not able to manage much. I think Indy scores on Ten without trying. Second string offense will put up points fairly easily. Unless there are some freakish turnover issues, I think Indy will roll up on the Titans.

Buf +11 Chi - Laying the points here with the Bears. The Bears simply do not allow points at home. Their defense is very stout at Soldier Field. I can't see Buf putting up more than 7 or 10 points. I can easily see 3 TDs from the Bears, be they offensive or defensive.

NYJ +7 Jac - Laying the seven again here. Jacksonville is pretty much in a must win situation. I think the Jets are getting some love for the way they played Indy. Also, Jacksonville blew a lead to the Skins. I think the line shows value. I am going to look for 6.5 on this game to play it. Jac really should be laying about 9 or 9.5 here.

Oak +3.5 SF - Gotta play SF here. I am definitely getting this game at 3, whether it drops, or I have to buy the hook. SF got whalloped last week, and are only giving 3 to the WORST team in the league. Oak couldn't beat a young Cleveland team at home, in possibly the fiercest home field in the NFL. SF should beat them handily in this spot.

STL -2.5 GB - This is the one bet I locked in as soon as I saw the line. I grabbed the Rams. GB is just pitiful. While they are at home, and can score points, I think the Rams simply outscore them here.

Well, I hate being on all favorites, but that is where I see the value this week. I think the recent doggie action may be influencing the lines a bit. Good luck all.

falloutboy35 · 10-05-2006, 12:29 AM

what does everyone think about Pitt vs SD ?

lid73 · 10-05-2006, 09:29 AM

Man, that is a tough game to pick. Pitt is in a must win, but SD lost one to the Ravens last week. SD's defense is really pretty good this year. I think I will happily watch that one with no money on it.

lid73 · 10-09-2006, 10:25 AM

Well, week 5 was nice with a 4-1 to get the second quarter of the season going. The season is at 17-16-2.

Indy really was not prepared to play this week. The sorry Titans almost took this game away. I don't really mind the colts not covering this week, as it will probably lead to more reasonable spreads to take the colts in the future.

The STL game was a little surprising as well, I really thought we would see a Rams blowout. There may be some value in (urk...) the Packers over the next few weeks. They have played well enough to hang around, and may be getting 6-7 points.

The other games were over early, and not really watchable after the half. Hope everyone had a good week.

moses millsap · 10-09-2006, 11:11 AM

Nice job, you got me confused when you said 4-1 but posted lines that were 2-3, but I see you made in the picks in the writeups (whereas at first when I saw Jets +7, naturally I assumed you played it that way).