[thref23]

Alright, I don't know many here, and you guys don't know me well

Anyways, I just finished researching all the I-A games this weekend. For the second week in a row, I've spent a good amnount of time looking over the matchups (stats, schedule/results, quick Google news search, etc). Upon reviewing each matchup, if I found that I had any kind of opinion regarding the matchup, I put a ranking into a spreadsheet that for the second week in a row serves as the source for my simple but proprietary ranking system. Last week it worked alright, if I placed money on each of the first 15 picks or so, I would've done well. Went 11-4 with those picks. I ended up winning some money off a progressive parlay and 3 team teaser, but I wasn't betting on individual games.

This week upon finishing my ranked picks, I adjusted them based on last week's results. For example, last week, 5 NCAA teams picked in my spreadsheet were home teams which were favored - four lost. So, this week, favored home teams I felt made good picks were given less weight. I'm half trying to win money here, half experimenting so hopefully I can win money in the future

So, below is a list of 36 NCAA/NFL picks I like for this weekend. They are listed in approximate order of my confidence - the first 3 or 4 teams picked are plays I feel very very good about. The teams towards the bottom half of the list, are picks I don't feel very strongly about at all

If anyone would like a brief explanation for any pick listed, ask. Just don't go asking for full explanations for every game listed because I don't have time for that. At the same time, if you have a strong belief that any of the picks listed is a bad one, let me know and give an explanation - it'd be appreciated. Or, if you see a pick towards the bottom you think should be moved up in the list, let me know. Its not like I can bet on all 36 games, so the more games I can weed out the better

here are the picks...

TCU NL NL
Western Michigan Dogs 24.5
Ball State Dogs 7.5
Buffalo (NCAA) Dogs 31
Virginia Tech Favored 10.5
Tennessee (Titans) Dogs 3
Vanderbilt Dogs 8
Michigan Dogs 2.5
Virginia Dogs 1
Rice Dogs 7
Washington St Dogs 11.5
UAB Favored 1.5
Colts/Texans - over 45 over 45
Indiana Dogs 15.5
Houston Dogs 2
Florida State Favored 30
Akron Favored 9
Notre Dame Favored 19.5
Oklahoma Favored 14
UL-Lafayette Dogs 14
Buffalo (Bills) Dogs 3
Seattle (Seahawks) Favored 3
Washington (NCAA) Dogs 30
Utah St Dogs 18.5
Pittsburgh (NCAA) Favored 13
KC Chiefs Dogs 1.5
Denver (Broncos) Dogs 1.5
Georgia Favored 19.5
Alabama Favored 3.5
Oklahoma St Dogs 14
Wisconsin Favored 8
Florida Intl Dogs 8.5
Texas A&M Favored 4.5
NY Jets Dogs 7
Kent State Dogs 10
Miami FL Favored 15.5

[aje]

Didn't really go through your list. Just wanted to mentioned in the future that you can use +/- to save time. Good luck this weekend.

[thref23]

I'm gonna add Nebraska towards the top of the list. I had overlooked the game, but now that I've taken a 2nd look I'll even provide a brief explanation

Not incl Texas Tech, who Nebraska's D limited to 31 pts, Nebraska's D has not allowed more than 20 pts in a single game. Last week, in their first road game, they started out slow but finished stronger - this was a warm-up game. They carry this momentum into Missouri. Missouri's offense is decent but is no powerhouse

Meanwhile, Missouri's D is nothing special and probably cannot hold Nebraska under 20 pts - only one team has done this and this was Pittsburgh.

Since '01, Nebraska is 32-9 when scoring 20 pts or more. Missouri is 2-17 when scoring less than 20

[smoothsuave]

I think if you have Colts/Texans - over 45 over 45
then you might as well have the Colts beating the spread.
On one hand the Colts probably will score a lot of points and on the same hand the texans are not going to score a lot of points.

[thref23]

Originally Posted by smoothsuave

I think if you have Colts/Texans - over 45 over 45
then you might as well have the Colts beating the spread.
On one hand the Colts probably will score a lot of points and on the same hand the texans are not going to score a lot of points.

I was thinking the same. But I'm too reluctant. I figure Houston's offense is due to come out of its shell sooner or later. I could see something like a 31-17 final. I just figure Indy 'll score their points and Houston will put at least some points on the board because they are due

[Razz]

Good call on Nebraska. I like a lot of your college picks, but we sort of differ on NFL this weekend.

About Houston, they definitely have the weapons to score 24 if their offensive line can perform better. At the skill positions (QB, WRs, RB), their talent level is in the top half of the league. That line is just so terrible. At least Freeney hasn't practiced all week, and probably won't play as much as normal. I do like over a lot in this game. I think it will be something like 31-24.