[SBRforum Staff]

Texans +3½ vs Dolphins

Game Time: 10/1/2006 1:00:00 PM
By: Phil Steele
http://www.phoenixsports.com

Taking the points and the home team is the way to go this Sunday when the Texans host the Dolphins in NFL Week 4 action.

The Texans stunned the Dolphins in the 2003 season opener by winning 21-20 as a 13-pt away dog as Miami completely overlooked Houston.

The Texans have a bye week on deck (3-1 ATS beforehand) and are 1-7 ATS as a home dog. For the second week in a row, the Texans are going to be viewed as the rebound team vs a team that was expected to have playoff hopes at the start of the season.

Last week Houston was outgained 495-261, but for the second week in a row a large chunk of their yardage (114 yds) was in garbage time. While Houston is not yet capable of playing from behind, it shows that head coach Gary Kubiak is getting the team to believe in his message and won’t quit unlike last year when they wilted after getting behind.

Miami beat the Titans last week, 13-10, but were far from impressive as they were outgained 316-289 and on four trips inside the Titans' 25 settled for a TD and a pair of FG. Quarterback Dante Culpepper was a bit better with 168 yds (65%) and a 0-0 ratio, but was sacked six times and his 15 sacks are 31st in the NFL as he holds the ball too long trying to make plays.

Houston is a very dangerous team as they have played two very good offenses and a good defense to start the year. They should get their first win here vs a disappointing Miami team.

Forecast: Houston-21 Miami-17

Play: Texans +3½

[Gamehendge]

nice write up, this one still scares me though, miami is due to have a good game.

[bigboydan]

I wish I could back the Texans in this game, but I just can't do it. I think the over might be the best way to play this game though.

[McBa1n]

"Houston is a very dangerous team as they have played two very good offenses and a good defense to start the year. "

I want to timestamp this moment.
It's the first time in my life I've heard these words put together: "Houston is a very dangerous team".

[goldengoat]

normally i would bet against houston automatically but miami has looked like trash all season

the defense has played fairly well but the offense has been a huge disappointment

culpepper has been getting sacked all over the place prolly cause of the new system/receivers and not full confidence in his scrambles

problem is houston ain't sackin nobody and mario williams has shown nothing

williams got called out by his coach so if he is ever gonna get a sack it better be this game or we might hear the bust word used for the first time (although it would be premature to say it but it's gonna pop up)

that half point is keeping me from betting the dolphins but if i had to bet i would go with the fish

no playing this probably

[anthon9283]

I would pick the Texans if the ML was better. Last week Titans ML was +550 so it was worth putting a few bucks on that. But +170 isn't really worth it to me.

[Don Dollars]

Does anyone know how Steele did last week?