[SBRforum Staff]

Super Bowl Losers & The Next Year

By: Marc Lawrence
http://www.playbook.com
Super Bowl losers often suffer a letdown in the following season. But there's money to be had in heartbreak.

Close. Oh, so very close.

Close, though, is good for only three things: intimate encounters, horseshoes and hand grenades. To a football team it's as bad, or perhaps worse, as getting blown out in a game.

Coming within smelling distance of winning a coveted game can often times result in heartbreak, especially when that desired contest was the penultimate of all games, namely the Super Bowl.

Arriving to the Super Bowl game and winning it are two different things, indeed. Much like the loser in a championship fight - no one ever remembers your name, nor do they care. Consequently, many times when a fighter falls short of winning the belt in a title game his career goes downhill all too quickly.

With this thought in mind, I examined how the loser of the previous year's Super Bowl fares the following season. According to our powerful Sports Data football database, here is the ATS (Against The Spread) breakdown of how defending Super Bowl losers have fared in a game-by-game breakdown since 1981, in regular season games the following year:

Game One: 11-14
Game Two: 15-9-1
Game Three: 10-14-1
Game Four: 17-7-1
Game Five: 10-15
Game Six: 10-14-1
Game Seven: 13-12
Game Eight: 13-12
Game Nine: 6-18-1
Game Ten: 12-12
Game Eleven: 13-11
Game Twelve: 7-17
Game Thirteen: 11-13
Game Fourteen: 13-10-1
Game Fifteen: 9-13-2
Game Sixteen: 13-9

Unlike defending Super Bowl champions who tend to struggle out of the chute, defending Super Bowl losers are moderate moneymakers throughout their initial four games of the season, going 53-44-3 ATS. They tend to struggle immediately after the halfway point of the campaign, however, going 38-58-1 ATS in Games 9-12.

Their worst role, or the most lucrative pointspread proposition - from our point of view - occurs whenever we...PLAY AGAINST any defending NFL Super Bowl runnerup in any game away from home the following year if they are 'pick' or favored.

Saddled with too much weight from their success the previous season, these Super Bowl losers are 36-68-3 ATS on the road the next year when not taking points. Send them out against a non-division foe in this role and they dip to 12-34-2 ATS, including 2-17-1 ATS if the non-division opponent is a .500 or better team.

[Justin7]

I don't normally like trends analysis, but that end-summary was very nice.

Anyone following this system by playing Detroit+6?

[mad]

Considering it.

Lions don't inspire a huge amount of confidence though. If i could get +7 closer to game time, i'd have a go.

[goldengoat]

interesting stuff

matt millan is a loser though

[MercJr]

Might not play Det, but definitely wont be on Seattle as a road fav this year.

[Ganchrow]

Talk about data mining ...

[Justin7]

Ok, I officially like Seattle -6 (teased down to Pk).

For those in the know, that is effectively Seattle Pk -240.

At the same time, I very much like Detroit Pk +250.

What are these books smoking?

[McBa1n]

Originally Posted by mad

Considering it.

Lions don't inspire a huge amount of confidence though. If i could get +7 closer to game time, i'd have a go.

I'm with you on this one.
Detroit is not THAT bad, they are definitly on the rise. I think they over-achieved a bit last year by a win or 2... But they are still on the rise.

Also, beyond a pretty solid coach (as it seems at this point), the team, despite being patchwork on the O line, can throw the ball around pretty well.

I can see them staying in games and not quitting, like they have done over the past few seasons, if they get behind. That to me is a big deal if the line should keep favoring Seattle as it does. It's not quite ripe to bet, but it could get there.

[mad]

That about sums it up McB, very nicely indeed. I would expect (perhaps hope) for an improvement this season but might wait to see how they go before jumping in. I'd certainly expect a few spots to pick from, at the very least.