[SBRforum Staff]

Wide and Narrow Spreads


Early season mismatches can lead to wild spreads on the college football gridirons. Striking early while the iron is hot is not always the best adage to go by. But waiting too long to make a move on a game can cost you in the end.


By: Richard Witt
http://www.rbenjaminsports.com

With the NFL exhibition season now underway, Week One college-football quotations for Labor Day-weekend action are now widely available at most of the more influential marketmakers -- and wily shoppers are already out in force.

You'll see the biggest swings in NCAA lines during the opening couple of weeks, when the openers and the opinions harbored by some of the biggest swingers in the biz are sometimes wildly divergent.

As you'd expect, the most pronounced roller-coaster moves will come to pass in asssociation with some of the matchups bearing the largest numbers. Some of this movement is based on strict analysis of the fundamentals at hand. Other such activity is motivated by the not-unreasonable belief that a concerted move on one side or another of a double-digit point spread can force a substantial -- and middle-able -- move.

One such affair is the Akron/Penn State clash in Happy Valley (where else?), early on the Saturday card. Off last season's sprightly 11-1 campaign and the obvious, established advantage in material enjoyed by Joe Paterno's program, the Nittany Lions opened as hefty faves, in the three-touchdown neighborhood. This was quickly whittled down to the high teens by those cynical about the Nits' likely early season production with a depleted offensive line, and without the departed Michael Robinson -- as well as those who saw a line they thought could be shoved around, to their possible speculative benefit. Now at -16 at bellwether Pinnacle, you may fairly expect this number to ease still further, given the broad market sponsorship of the Akron side.

There is a point in this process at which time the home side becomes somewhat attractive, especially to those who are already well-endowed with positions on the Zips -- at far higher numbers. A spread of +19 and -14 would be lovely to behold for those having the foresight to establish such a play structure, so rife with "middle" possibilities. You won't hit all of these, but winners with a refined sense of anticipating line movements would be foolish not to take advantage of such possibilities, when they present themselves. It's part of the game.

Normally, the results of games bearing such hefty spreads are largely contingent on coaching intentions. Many a "designated opponent" in this spot is in it for the experience, conditioning -- and the hefty paycheck from the home school. Paterno is in it for the virtually-assured "W". and to give the aforementioned offensive skill people time to develop against managable competition -- especially with Notre Dame looming on the horizon, one week later. Thus, a game tough to predict, at the current number -- but one which might easily land in that "happy valley" for those with foresight.

The majority of college cappers are better-off concentrating on games bearing single-digit spreads, with those at six points or less most-preferred -- especially as the season settles into relative normalcy. In most regular-season situations, it's difficult to rely on a coach to cover a double-digit number with any certainty, and the underdog in such situations is almost-always fighting the battle with clearly-inferior weapons. It's most-often prudent to seek middle opportunities in mismatches, and solid sides in games which appear to be most-competitive to the broad public. It's easiest to uncover the best opportunities where most people aren't looking.

[bigboydan]

there are alot of weak numbers out there in college football i have noticed already myself.