[ploben]

Long time forum viewer and just decided to create an account on here. Just want to say up front, 90% of you are doing a hell of a job on here with your research and picks.

Long time Giants fan and so excited for Sunday's game
Made alot of money with them this season.

I am a little hesitant to pull the trigger on G-Men -4

Does anyone see value in the ML @ -205?

[LT Profits]

NO. I think the Giants win this game about 65% of the time, which is -EV at -205.

[ploben]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

NO. I think the Giants win this game about 65% of the time, which is -EV at -205.

Where do you get that number?

Say that number is accurate, out of the 65% of them winning, how many of those do the Giants cover?

[Kingctb27]

Stay away. If anything take the Eagles at +185.

[ploben]

Originally Posted by Kingctb27

Stay away. If anything take the Eagles at +185.

Why do you say that?

This is the first week in a long time that the full Giants team have practiced without any players who are questionable or day-to-day.

[pacattack81]

Originally Posted by ploben

Why do you say that?

This is the first week in a long time that the full Giants team have practiced without any players who are questionable or day-to-day.

this game is virtually a toss-up so it makes more sense to take +185 straight up on the eagles or the +4 points...either team can win this game if they play their cards right and that really cant be denied in this matchup...if the giants cant run the ball i see them having trouble with the passing game...without burress, a guy that was able to out jump practically anybody, manning will have trouble finding an open guy...this is coming from a giants fan who watched every game...plus their defense is very suspect against the run...if westbrook is healthy the giants don't even stand a chance on defense

[ploben]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

NO. I think the Giants win this game about 65% of the time, which is -EV at -205.

If this is the case then the Giants winning 65% to the Eagles 35% then the Giants winning are ~2 to 1, 2 times to every Eagles 1 time. At -205 those odds seem correct for your percentage but your statement, saying 65% makes the Giants -EV, doesn't make sense.

[CBBPhenom]

Long Time eagles fan here and your original gut instinct is correct in not pulling the trigger on your giants

[slacker00]

Originally Posted by ploben

If this is the case then the Giants winning 65% to the Eagles 35% then the Giants winning are ~2 to 1, 2 times to every Eagles 1 time. At -205 those odds seem correct for your percentage but your statement, saying 65% makes the Giants -EV, doesn't make sense.

If the Giants win 65% of the time, then +-197 would be the fair line. With the line around -205, the Giants need to win closer to 68% of the time to break even.

Nevertheless, I think the Giants win 75% of the time in this spot, so I'll lay the odds and go with the favorite today. The Eagles are a good team, but the Giants 4-0 road playoff run last season was no fluke. The Giants will get a warm reception at home today, finally coming back for a home playoff game. I half expect a blowout if the Giants can put pressure on McNabb while keeping Westbrook in check. I think Spags will have the perfect game plan and the Giants get it done!

[ploben]

Originally Posted by slacker00

If the Giants win 65% of the time, then +-197 would be the fair line. With the line around -205, the Giants need to win closer to 68% of the time to break even.

...I half expect a blowout if the Giants can put pressure on McNabb while keeping Westbrook in check. I think Spags will have the perfect game plan and the Giants get it done!

Right, 66% of Giants winning would be the exact 2 to 1. BUT I don't know where he got the 65% to begin with.

As much as I love it, 75% might be a little generous.

AccuScore (and I know how this forum loooooves AccuScore ) has this at %54, making it +-117. This might be because of a 100% Westbrook, but I don't think he is.

I have seen every game this year, except the Browns SNF (turned it off after the half). The Giants, this season, have pass rushed so well but often ease up as the game goes on. McNabb can be stopped and the Giants have an answer for him. The Eagles keep this game close if Westbrook finds a way through the D.

[ebbearsfb1]

anyone taking giants money line and eagles + 4... its very tempting cause i can see this being a field goal game

[ploben]

Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1

anyone taking giants money line and eagles + 4... its very tempting cause i can see this being a field goal game

Now I am not a math and stats cruncher like some of the people on here but I am sure that has odds like a parlay BUT if Westbrook is 100% (which he isn't) and can get over 120 all purpose yards, this might not be bet.

I'll make my prediction 24-21 Giants, but I hope it's more like 28-17.

[xxxvince]

i am on giants -4, we gonna watch the game anyway, put a small bet and enjoy. remember when eagles play redskins and their tie game in ot? another one is due today GO GIANTS