[nep1293]

WEEK 12 - The Chart
Bengals @ Steelers (-10.5)
Texans @ Browns (-3)
Bills @ Chiefs
Jets (+5) @ Titans
Patriots (+2.5) @ Dolphins
49ers (+11) @ Cowboys
Buccaneers @ Lions (+9)
Eagles (PICK) @ Ravens
Bears @ Rams (+9.5)
Vikings @ Jaguars (-1.5)
Panthers @ Falcons (-1)
Raiders @ Broncos (-10)
Redskins @ Seahawks
Giants @ Cardinals
Colts @ Chargers (-3)
Packers (+2.5) @ Saints

Week 11 Record (10-2)
2008 Record (81-47)

[nep1293]

Giants/Cardinals and Redskins/Seahawks are no plays, Bills/Chiefs will also be a no play The Eagles are a great test to my system. I've been on HOME (PICK) all year, and now the numbers say to fade HOME (PICK) , so the Eagles are the play. We'll see. GL everyone!

[Dark Horse]

Good stuff.

[themajormt]

What is the indicator that says to switch to the home pick fade?

Is this the first indicator to make a switch so far this year or are you just pointing it out? You know I have been following all year so just trying to see whats up!

[BettorFan]

Best of Luck...I really like the Patriots play in this one.

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by themajormt

What is the indicator that says to switch to the home pick fade?

Is this the first indicator to make a switch so far this year or are you just pointing it out? You know I have been following all year so just trying to see whats up!

I give each game an expected Win % based on previous seasons results. The percent fluctuates and when it hits certain numbers its start to switch up a bit.

I've done it a few times this year and it has been solid. The Eagles stands out because The Chart is really big on home teams when the spread is PICK or 1. Home (PICK) is 4-0 on the year and the basic strategy of The Chart says to take the Ravens. but past results say that since the Home teams have been winning those frequently then its about to swing to the Away team. I'm very interested to see what happens here.

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by BettorFan

Best of Luck...I really like the Patriots play in this one.

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Good stuff.

Thanks guys, appreciate it

[nep1293]

Just got the new lines and Bills/Chiefs is another test.

I've been on Away (-3) all year and they have been great (11-4 YTD). The percent reached a point where it says to either stay away from the game or switch to the Chiefs. Sunday can't get here fast enough!

[nep1293]

A couple cool stats for the year so far.

Big road underdogs have been amazing. Road teams getting 9 or more are 21-5-1 on the year. Road teams getting 11 or more are 12-0-1. Incredible. I've been on most of these dogs too.

And road favorites have been solid. 26-17-2 overall on the year. So much for not betting on road favorites.

[themajormt]

Ya its pretty funny how everyone says "home dogs" or stay away from road teams... That isnt the case this year at all.

Looking at this weeks numbers compared to previous weeks, do you see anything that makes you worried or are you just excited to see if the "switch" was a good one?

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by themajormt

Ya its pretty funny how everyone says "home dogs" or stay away from road teams... That isnt the case this year at all.

Looking at this weeks numbers compared to previous weeks, do you see anything that makes you worried or are you just excited to see if the "switch" was a good one?

I'm excited to see the switch. It's been happening a lot this year where I would alternate between Home (-6) and Away (+6) and when it hits I kinda just shake my head and think it's pretty cool. The way The Chart works, the more data I get the more it starts to fill itself in and you can really see patterns develop.

If the Ravens win, the next PICKem will still go to the road team. If the Eagles win there should be enough of change to go back to the home team.

Strangely enough, I actually had a bad feeling about last weeks games and look how that turned out. I couldn't ask for a better NFL season so far.

[themajormt]

I agree... I am definitely happy I started following awhile back but I am just trying to get a better understanding of the trends and everything. When you make the switch you don't make this determination right? The %'s start to add up which indicates the change?

[DaChosen1FoSho]

A little late, but subscribing.

[Silverbullet]

6-1 last week
week 12 2 team tease Bal +5 Ten -1/2
Parlay Dal -9 Den -9

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by themajormt

I agree... I am definitely happy I started following awhile back but I am just trying to get a better understanding of the trends and everything. When you make the switch you don't make this determination right? The %'s start to add up which indicates the change?

The percent I assign captures how certain spreads have been hitting. For example, I have the Ravens at 68.51% this week. That is very high which says the home pickems have been hitting of late. When I go through my data I see that when the percent is 65% or greater for the home team, they are 0-8. So knowing that I switch over to the Eagles. It's pretty wild and maybe I'm just getting lucky this year but I really feel there is a certain rhythm to the season and you just gotta know when the crazy stuff starts to happen. I could be insane though, not sure yet.

[keystonekid]

You are way over trying to figure these games out. The number 1 stat you only need to know is 50:50. Looking at the stats are worthless. Just pick a game and pick a team. You have a 50 50 chance of winning every game. You either win or you lose. And, that is a fact. And that is how simple it is.

[MrMonkey]

Originally Posted by nep1293

I'm excited to see the switch. It's been happening a lot this year where I would alternate between Home (-6) and Away (+6) and when it hits I kinda just shake my head and think it's pretty cool. The way The Chart works, the more data I get the more it starts to fill itself in and you can really see patterns develop.

If the Ravens win, the next PICKem will still go to the road team. If the Eagles win there should be enough of change to go back to the home team.

Strangely enough, I actually had a bad feeling about last weeks games and look how that turned out. I couldn't ask for a better NFL season so far.

I know you have been real successful with it, but I surmise your system calculates when a trend both continues and ends? I always hate going with a trend because am I getting on the train too late? So your your saying the trend ends with a Ravens' loss and with a Chargers' win?

Talent and 2008 stat. wise who do you believe covers? Ravens have some Otackle injuries but really believe they will cover line up to -3. Balt. still positive after Giants game and have been playing real well. Eagles i think are more in trouble than people think. Mental state is at all time low. McNabb could win game with talent but not with leadership. Reid is under alot of pressure and you see how his game management has been.

Chargers 5 Off. weapons just as good as if not better than Indy's. Turner and coaching scares me but think they will have big game. Playing at home and NTV hopefully should win.
(Jets & Pats) Thanks.

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by MrMonkey

I know you have been real successful with it, but I surmise your system calculates when a trend both continues and ends? I always hate going with a trend because am I getting on the train too late? So your your saying the trend ends with a Ravens' loss and with a Chargers' win?

Talent and 2008 stat. wise who do you believe covers? Ravens have some Otackle injuries but really believe they will cover line up to -3. Balt. still positive after Giants game and have been playing real well. Eagles i think are more in trouble than people think. Mental state is at all time low. McNabb could win game with talent but not with leadership. Reid is under alot of pressure and you see how his game management has been.

Chargers 5 Off. weapons just as good as if not better than Indy's. Turner and coaching scares me but think they will have big game. Playing at home and NTV hopefully should win.
(Jets & Pats) Thanks.

When I started working on this system it did not adapt to changes, it was strictly take HOME (PICK) or HOME (-6) every time. Same goes for the rest of the spreads. Now that there is some fluidity to it I think I'm able to avoid getting in on the trends too late. I'm anticipating when the changes will occur and trying to pounce on them. Overall these "switches" don't occur that much, I don't know how many I've had this year but I doubt it's more than 10.

Honestly, from a handicapping POV, I like the Ravens this week. All your points are valid. And John Harbaugh was around the Eagles for many years so he's gotta have a few ideas on how to play his former team. The fact that it is (was) a PICK leads me over to the Eagles though, Baltimore should be a 3 pt favorite and they're not.

1 of the main philosophies of The Chart is to throw away all the stats and not focus on what happened last week. I take each game purely by the spread, the teams don't even matter. As far as The Chart is concerned it's Team A vs Team B. I'm trying to take away as much personal opinion on the games as possible. The Chart doesn't care that the Eagles looked awful last week.

I'll post a few stats I have from The Chart to try to make everything a little more easy to comprehend

[nep1293]

Hopefully this will help some of you guys out, It's the best definition I can give for everything I've done with The Chart.

***My data goes back through 2002 which is when the NFL expanded to 32 teams.

I use the previous 2 seasons of results in addition to the current year to give each game a winning percentage. The numbers are weighted to give more emphasis to the current year. A win/loss from 2006 counts as 1.33 pts, A win/loss from 2007 counts as 1.67 pts, and a win/loss from 2008 counts as 2 pts.

I'm using Home (-6) as the example, that is where the biggest statistical anomalies are.

Every Home (-6) has been within 50% and 57%. That is very strange in itself, every other spread has had percents varying much more than that.

When I broke down the numbers this is what shows up. These are the records of HOME (-6) at the various percentages that I assigned each game.

50% (3-1)
51% (7-3)
52% (11-3)
53% (10-6)
54% (10-6)
55% (5-11)
56% (4-5)
57% (2-8)

So If I just took Home (-6) every time I would have gone 52-43, not terrible. By implementing the jumping sides at certain percentages (55% in this case) the record goes to 65-30. Last week the Giants and the Niners were 52.09% and they both covered easily. With those 2 wins, the next Home (-6) will be 54.37%. Again, who knows if this means anything. I'm just a huge fan of trends and numbers. I hope this all makes sense to everyone.

[MrMonkey]

Originally Posted by nep1293

Hopefully this will help some of you guys out, It's the best definition I can give for everything I've done with The Chart.

***My data goes back through 2002 which is when the NFL expanded to 32 teams.

I use the previous 2 seasons of results in addition to the current year to give each game a winning percentage. The numbers are weighted to give more emphasis to the current year. A win/loss from 2006 counts as 1.33 pts, A win/loss from 2007 counts as 1.67 pts, and a win/loss from 2008 counts as 2 pts.

I'm using Home (-6) as the example, that is where the biggest statistical anomalies are.

Every Home (-6) has been within 50% and 57%. That is very strange in itself, every other spread has had percents varying much more than that.

When I broke down the numbers this is what shows up. These are the records of HOME (-6) at the various percentages that I assigned each game.

50% (3-1)
51% (7-3)
52% (11-3)
53% (10-6)
54% (10-6)
55% (5-11)
56% (4-5)
57% (2-8)

So If I just took Home (-6) every time I would have gone 52-43, not terrible. By implementing the jumping sides at certain percentages (55% in this case) the record goes to 65-30. Last week the Giants and the Niners were 52.09% and they both covered easily. With those 2 wins, the next Home (-6) will be 54.37%. Again, who knows if this means anything. I'm just a huge fan of trends and numbers. I hope this all makes sense to everyone.

Thanks buddy. I am not nearly as prolific as you with the numbers, but if the Chart keeps working I will be there!

[themajormt]

I love how week 12 arrives and everyone starts asking questions when I was listening back in week 4

If everyone hasn't realized the chart does NOT take any weather, injuries, or anything else into consideration. It is merely about what the line is and what that line has done historically.

Keystone you are an idiot, betting games is NOT a coin flip, maybe your bullshit "system" is a coin flip but when someone hits 58-60% that is not 50/50 pal...

Nep, don't let all the questions or comments throw you off this week... keep doing what you're doing, people can choose to play or fade my man

[etothep]

Originally Posted by nep1293

A couple cool stats for the year so far.

Big road underdogs have been amazing. Road teams getting 9 or more are 21-5-1 on the year. Road teams getting 11 or more are 12-0-1. Incredible. I've been on most of these dogs too.

And road favorites have been solid. 26-17-2 overall on the year. So much for not betting on road favorites.

And you still don't take the Bungles.

That says something about those clowns

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by themajormt

I love how week 12 arrives and everyone starts asking questions when I was listening back in week 4

If everyone hasn't realized the chart does NOT take any weather, injuries, or anything else into consideration. It is merely about what the line is and what that line has done historically.

Keystone you are an idiot, betting games is NOT a coin flip, maybe your bullshit "system" is a coin flip but when someone hits 58-60% that is not 50/50 pal...

Nep, don't let all the questions or comments throw you off this week... keep doing what you're doing, people can choose to play or fade my man

I don't mind at all. People need to see results. The more people jumping in late just means I'm still winning, and thats all I'm really concerned with. Just as long as I don't get buried when the bad week happens (yeah i said when, it's unavoidable at some point).

I think people are more comfortable with someone who is just really good at picking winners as opposed to a somewhat complicated mathematics based system. I've spent the last 3 seasons working on this and I still think it's a bit out there. I just wish I could fast forward 5 years so I could see the end result.

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by etothep

And you still don't take the Bungles.

That says something about those clowns

Yeah, it's funny. Sometimes I cringe when I have to throw my money on teams like the Bengals or Raiders.

Overall, the big underdogs start hitting at 13 pts or more for the road team and 7 points or more for the home team. Just so happens that this year the 9-12 point road dogs have hit, while historically they are around 50%.

[MrMonkey]

Originally Posted by themajormt

I love how week 12 arrives and everyone starts asking questions when I was listening back in week 4

If everyone hasn't realized the chart does NOT take any weather, injuries, or anything else into consideration. It is merely about what the line is and what that line has done historically.

Keystone you are an idiot, betting games is NOT a coin flip, maybe your bullshit "system" is a coin flip but when someone hits 58-60% that is not 50/50 pal...

Nep, don't let all the questions or comments throw you off this week... keep doing what you're doing, people can choose to play or fade my man

Just to let you know my friend, I didn't join until 11-9-08 so just trying to get some insight since I like the Ravens and Nep doesn't. I'll try not to ask too many dumb ???.

[themajormt]

Thats funny Monkey I was just saying that he shouldnt have to "defend" what the numbers are saying to do thats all... Have to remember it doesnt take into consideration injuries and everything else that clouds judgement. Its historical data on what the number has done...

[MrMonkey]

Originally Posted by themajormt

Thats funny Monkey I was just saying that he shouldnt have to "defend" what the numbers are saying to do thats all... Have to remember it doesnt take into consideration injuries and everything else that clouds judgement. Its historical data on what the number has done...

Thanks my friend. I love the numbers guys like Nep and Kroy89 (I'm not that good at it or probably not using the right numbers) so once they give us what they like, then I decide on the other factors.

[themajormt]

I am the same way but I do it the other way around... I do my own "system" and come up with what I think I like and then compare to a strictly numbers system like this one and if it jives it is a play. It is sort of an extra check on my capping...

[Sforz]

How do I go about getting a 'The Chart' on all the 2007 games?

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by nep1293

Hopefully this will help some of you guys out, It's the best definition I can give for everything I've done with The Chart.

***My data goes back through 2002 which is when the NFL expanded to 32 teams.

I use the previous 2 seasons of results in addition to the current year to give each game a winning percentage. The numbers are weighted to give more emphasis to the current year. A win/loss from 2006 counts as 1.33 pts, A win/loss from 2007 counts as 1.67 pts, and a win/loss from 2008 counts as 2 pts.

I'm using Home (-6) as the example, that is where the biggest statistical anomalies are.

Every Home (-6) has been within 50% and 57%. That is very strange in itself, every other spread has had percents varying much more than that.

When I broke down the numbers this is what shows up. These are the records of HOME (-6) at the various percentages that I assigned each game.

50% (3-1)
51% (7-3)
52% (11-3)
53% (10-6)
54% (10-6)
55% (5-11)
56% (4-5)
57% (2-8)

So If I just took Home (-6) every time I would have gone 52-43, not terrible. By implementing the jumping sides at certain percentages (55% in this case) the record goes to 65-30. Last week the Giants and the Niners were 52.09% and they both covered easily. With those 2 wins, the next Home (-6) will be 54.37%. Again, who knows if this means anything. I'm just a huge fan of trends and numbers. I hope this all makes sense to everyone.

Very interesting. Could well be another example of non-linearity (chaos theory) in sports betting. How did you come up with the 52.9% for the Niners-Giants game? Is that the accumulated ATS percentage for the past two years plus this season for this spread?

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Very interesting. Could well be another example of non-linearity (chaos theory) in sports betting. How did you come up with the 52.9% for the Niners-Giants game? Is that the accumulated ATS percentage for the past two years plus this season for this spread?

Yeah, it's just the record of the spreads over the last 2+ seasons changed into a percentage. It's pretty simple.

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by Sforz

How do I go about getting a 'The Chart' on all the 2007 games?

I don't really understand, do you want the picks from last year?

[DaChosen1FoSho]

1-0 start for ya.

[Sforz]

Originally Posted by nep1293

I don't really understand, do you want the picks from last year?

yeah thats what I wanted.. I just realized that they are available by use of that handy search tool.... thanks

[nep1293]

Originally Posted by Sforz

yeah thats what I wanted.. I just realized that they are available by use of that handy search tool.... thanks

Yeah, you should be able to find them here.

I tweaked my system in the offseason, so the picks from 2007 aren't really worth much for this year.

Originally Posted by DaChosen1FoSho

1-0 start for ya.

Very nice Win. I couldn't believe the Bengals kicked the late FG. Thought for sure it was going to be a 20-10 final.