[Dbldown11]

There has been a lot of talk on this site lately about "reverse line movement". and People that get their panties in a bundle thinking that it is such a huge factor when looking at game.....So lets get the facts straight.

People seem to be under the impression that if Team A has a higher percentage of people wagering on them then the line should move accordingly. And that if it doesnt, or it actually moves the opposite way then Team B is the play.

FALSE.

Vegase moves lines based on the percentage of money each side has on it....They do not move lines based on the percentage of people betting a certain side. Vegase wants equal action on each game, they make their money on the juice, not on winning and losing wagering.

So basically just because more PEOPLE are betting a certain side does not mean that the line will or should move that way. The only true way to see if there is reverse line movement would be to see what percentage of money each side has on them (which is impossible).

So the next time I see someone say that 65% of the public is on side A, but the line hasnt moved please remember that it doesnt neccessarily mean shit.

[yisman]

you don't understand what RLM is or why people use it.

That post is so full of shit.

People don't bet the other way because they don't know that Vegas balances the lines based on money. They DO know how Vegas operates, and thus know which way the sharps are probably going.

[esz04]

Maybe I'm mistaken on this (and please correct me if I'm wrong), but you can get a good sense of how much money is on either side simply by watching the line movement. For instance, let's say Team A has 75% of the bets on them and Team B has 25% of the Bets on them. Now, if the line opened at Team A -9.5 and moved to Team A -7.5, it would be quite clear that the 25% of the betting population that is on Team B significantly outbet the 75% on Team A. Assuming the big bettors are the sharps, one can tell that the sharps are on Team B and make that play.

That is Reverse Line Movement and there certainly is a way to tell when that is happening. Cincinatti vs. WVU being a prime example.

[Dbldown11]

I do understand that people see the sharp money in the RLM....And I'm not saying that it's completely a bad way to look at things. But it should be something you use to back up your picks....No one should make a pick based on this false logic......And big betters are not always sharps...Especially if it is a big televised game...

There are a lot of people that bet a lot of money on football that are not sharps.

If you see this RLM on games that most people would not give a crap about then that is when you should look into it more carefully

[Dbldown11]

no, you're right esz04....I'm just pointing out that sharps are not always the ones betting significant money....

And this RLM that people are looking at I'm pretty sure people on this site looked into it, and discovered that it's winning percentage was not significantly over 50%

[Dbldown11]

I would say that nationally televised games are the worst games in terms of looking at RLM. When a game is nationally telelevised and gamblers all over the country are watching, you can be sure that Sharps are not the only ones betting big money

[yisman]

it's not false logic.

If it was, you shouldn't use it at all, even to "back up your picks."

[Dbldown11]

I dont myself....But it is false logic because you are ASSUMING that the big money is coming from sharps....The fact of the matter is that the big money could be coming from rich guys that are throwing money around to make their sunday night more entertaining....

Like I said I would put much more weight on RLM when it is a non nationally televised game where it seems no one would give a shit about it......In that case the odds are more likely that the big money is actually coming from sharps....

But once again when it's a nationally televised game it's a crapshoot as to who the big money is coming from

[Robust]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

no, you're right esz04....I'm just pointing out that sharps are not always the ones betting significant money....

And this RLM that people are looking at I'm pretty sure people on this site looked into it, and discovered that it's winning percentage was not significantly over 50%

i'd agree about the 50% on college ball.. but the BIG upsets i have bet on were due to RLM.. and i won..

In the NFL, since i started monitoring this, i would guess 80-90% RLM on the spread wins outright or covers (right before game time, not 3 days early as it can balance out)..

Do the research and you will see..

Robust

[Dbldown11]

yes you are probably right about big line movement RIGHT BEFORE kickoff....

[yisman]

Robust is correct.

If you track RLM carefully and you bet only the RLM games, you will make money over time. Keep in mind that there aren't many games where the line actually moves the other way.

Also, this is only for spreads, not for totals or moneylines.

[dwaechte]

[Dbldown11]

yisman not to be an ass but you are talking about this like you have been following it for a while....

The truth is a month ago you said:

"If a high % is going one way and the line doesn't move, go against the public. This means Vegas most likely knows something and is thus not moving with the action."

and that is not true in any way shape or form

[Kingctb27]

Because they want an easy way out. Yes, it may work half of the time or possibly 55% on a short-term basis, but doing it blindly is a sucker bet.

[Robust]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

yisman not to be an ass but you are talking about this like you have been following it for a while....

The truth is a month ago you said:

"If a high % is going one way and the line doesn't move, go against the public. This means Vegas most likely knows something and is thus not moving with the action."

and that is not true in any way shape or form

erm..

11/9/2008 NEW YORK GIANTS 43.5 43.5*** 76% off 76%
20:15 EST PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 -3.0*** 24% 24%

this describes that statement perfectly..

hope i didn't offend.. just trying to get the right info out there (or what i perceive to be correct.. lol)

Robust

[Robust]

Originally Posted by Kingctb27

Because they want an easy way out. Yes, it may work half of the time or possibly 55% on a short-term basis, but doing it blindly is a sucker bet.

yup! Agreed 100%

that's why i cap it too.. look at the numbers.. look at the last 3 for each team.. look at the outcomes of the SF game..

so yes.. following it blindly is a sucker bet..

Robust

[Dbldown11]

no robust my point is that the reason vegas isnt moving the line is not because "vegas most likely knows something and is thus not moving with the action" which is what yisman said.

the reason they arent moving the line is because there is more money on the side that has a lower persentage of bettors

[Robust]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

no robust my point is that the reason vegas isnt moving the line is not because "vegas most likely knows something and is thus not moving with the action" which is what yisman said.

the reason they arent moving the line is because there is more money on the side that has a lower persentage of bettors

ahhh.. hehe.. well don't research my posts.. cuz i said it too at some point.. lol

best of luck to you bro!

Robust

[Dbldown11]

yup you too

[xyz]

Assuming the reverse line movement strategy works, it is still a challenge for the everyday bettor to execute on it. If the line has already moved the other way, so that you are getting a worst number than the sharps that got in earlier, this may neglect your advantage altogether.

[yisman]

I have been following this and I'm starting to figure it out more. Some of my earlier statements are not entirely correct.

[yisman]

Originally Posted by xyz

Assuming the reverse line movement strategy works, it is still a challenge for the everyday bettor to execute on it. If the line has already moved the other way, so that you are getting a worst number than the sharps that got in earlier, this may neglect your advantage altogether.

that's why you have to get early line alerts like LT and then find a book which still has the old line.