Quote:
Originally Posted by dwaechte
Edmonton +1.5 is actually my best bet this week. I'm not sure beating Toronto and Hamilton constitutes surging. All year, and still, it's been widely believed that there was a major gap between the top 5 teams(The West and Montreal) and the bottom 3(Win, Tor, Ham) Edmonton's had a couple straight poor outings, and are slightly injury plagued, but they've been remarkably better than Winnipeg over the course of the year in almost all predictive categories.
All that being said, my numbers and opinion are so far off this line that I have to be missing something.
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you bring up some good points, and there is no such thing as a SURE THING, which is why I never will risk more than 4% (4 units) of bankroll on any one play.
2 weeks ago, Winnipeg beat Toronto 39-9 in Toronto, now we all know that toronto is a team in shambles, so the victory in and of itself is not that impressive, but the margin of victory is quite big here (39-9), I was actually on Toronto this game as it was the first game with their new coach Don Mathews. Toronto went on to lose 4-34 in Calgary one of the premier teams in the league, so it can be argued that Winnpegs 39-9 victory in Toronto was more impressive than Calgary's 34-4 victory over Torono in their own barn. What I am trying to say is that Winnipeg beat Toronto by the same or greater margin than most teams have been beating Toronto this year.
Last week winnipeg beat Hamilton 25-23 and Hamiltion now sits at 2-12 (I think). So yes, they barely beat a terrible team, but to me it is still 2 victories in a row, back to back on the road, and Hamilton to me is not as bad as their record indicates, I have seen all of their games this year, and one thing I can tell you is that there is no quit in that team, so despite the fact that they lost to Winnipeg, they certainly didnt "lay down". And winnipeg had to find a way to win. Remeber, Edmonton also BARELY BEAT hamilton 38-33 on September 13th, and that game was IN EDMONTON, not Hamilon. All I am trying to say here is that suggesting a win against hamilton doesnt mean anything is wrong, a win is a win.
In sports I try to look at 'What have you done for me lately" as well as "Confidence". Winnipeg should be coming into this game high in the confidence department, wheras I would imagine, with injuries, the beating they took in montreal, and the VERY VERY short (5 day week) that Edmonton is not coming into this game with the most confidence. Of course, it only takes one or two big plays to change momentum and to regain confidence, but coming into the game, I would suggest that Winnipeg has much more of it than Edmonton at this time.
Of course, it is often difficult to come home after back to back road games, and I hope WInnipeg doesnt let down here, but due to their poor start at the beginning of the year, I have to beleive this will not happen
Big 4 unit play Friday....
That sucks!!!!
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