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Go Back   Sports Handicapping, Betting & Picks - SBR Forum > Sports Handicapping, Picks and Game Discussion > NFL Handicapping

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Old 11-27-2006, 05:17 AM   #1 (permalink)
TexansFan
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Default Cowboy's -3.5?

Is it just me or is this line to low. I know that this is a divisional game, that the Cowboy's and Giants, Cowboy's and Redskins, etc., usually play close games. I'm sorry, the Giants are a bad team compared to the Cowboys. The Cowboys have a good defense and offense.

This is really hard for me to say being from Houston. I have grown up HATING the Cowboys my entire life. I just don't see any way that the Giants cover this spread. I will bet my entire account that the line will move up. I say get this game while the spread on Pinny is 3.5
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Old 11-27-2006, 06:39 AM   #2 (permalink)
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The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC.
The Cowboys have the hottest QB in the NFL.
The Cowboys have revenge from earlier this season.
The Cowboys have extra rest, and are traditionally solid after Thanksgiving.
The Giants are a team in total disarray.
The Giants just suffered the worst lost I've seen a team have in a couple years.
The Giants have a quarterback who has lost his confidence and accuracy.
The Giants head coach is trying to ruin his team.

I will be playing the Giants, and I think they're going to win the game.
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Old 11-27-2006, 10:28 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Smells just like the Washington game a few weeks back.
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Old 11-27-2006, 10:33 AM   #4 (permalink)
moses millsap
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I hope ESPN keeps stuffing the "The Giants are finished" angle down our throats the whole week and hope the line rises to +4'
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Old 11-27-2006, 10:45 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Razz
I will be playing the Giants, and I think they're going to win the game.

At Razz's punch line I had two thoughts:

(1) This is how winning handicappers think.

(2) I really want to hear from the Giants themselves this week (especially late this week) in order to get more of a feel. Not what ESPN tells us, but what they actually say. (For that NFL Network and Coughlin later today on WFAN -- available online -- are good places to look.)

You have to love the chance to play decent teams when they are down, especially coming off an ass-kicking. But this was not that, but rather a crushing loss, which is different, and with which I think you need to be a little bit more careful (see Cardinals, Arizona). Although good teams still make decent bounce-back plays even with the "crushing loss" scenario.

On the Dallas side, most scary to me is the 10-days off piece of it. That's long enough so that there shouldn't be much hangover from their Indy-TB whirlwind.
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Old 11-27-2006, 10:57 AM   #6 (permalink)
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You're all fukking crazy.

I'm very anti-public when it comes to the NFL, but this is the wrong game to play the bounce-back angle. Wait until later to play the Giants. I took Cowboys -4 +100 for 5x last night.
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Old 11-27-2006, 11:08 AM   #7 (permalink)
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This line is pure perception. Boys should not be favored in NY.

Does that mean if they played in Dallas, Boys -10 is the line?

Books are throwing you a line and you took the bait.
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Old 11-27-2006, 01:15 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I'm thinking the under 43.5 might be the best way to play this game myself. I see both teams playing a very tight game in this one.
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Old 11-27-2006, 01:35 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by austintx05
This line is pure perception. Boys should not be favored in NY.

Does that mean if they played in Dallas, Boys -10 is the line?

Books are throwing you a line and you took the bait.
4 out of 5 times I agree. This is the one time I don't. I'm as anti-public as the next guy when it comes to betting NFL, but no amount of "this is a trap and I'm on the right side" thinking will make this game any less than a 4-point win for the Cowboys.
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Old 11-27-2006, 02:19 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OWNED
I hope ESPN keeps stuffing the "The Giants are finished" angle down our throats the whole week and hope the line rises to +4'
Same here, I will also be playing the NYG ml this week.
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Old 11-27-2006, 05:06 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I have no interest in playing either side of this game.
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Old 11-27-2006, 08:37 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I think that one thing that makes me laugh is when I hear that the "books" or "Vegas" has this set up as a trap for them to win money. Of course they are trying to win money, that's their business. The funniest site has to be covers.com. I laugh when I read how the NFL is fixed. Funny thing, when people win it's not fixed, when they lose it just has to be something other than what it is, just picking the wrong team.

We have all heard a million times that "that's why they play the games", because on any given day one team can beat another one. I read where people say, for example, Jacksonville can't win this game because they lost both of their games against the Texan's. What the hell does that have to do with anything?

Every week teams are going to lose to teams that they should beat. If it wasn't that way we all be rich because we could just pick the best team on paper. Casinos, sportsbooks, poker rooms, dog tracks, horse tracks, etc. all make money because the favorites don't always win.

I don't see the NYG/Dallas game as any sort of trap. Can the NYG's win? Of course they can. I like the Cowboys in this game though because of one reason, they are the better overall team. I know the NYG's will be playing hard because their season is riding on this divisional matchup. But Dallas also has a lot on the line in this game. If Dallas does not turn the ball over they win this game going away in my opinion.
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Old 11-27-2006, 11:28 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Boys 0-2 on division highway this year...Giants should be returning a few defensive starters but have been really sucking as of late. Beware playing against divisional home dogs, especially >3. I am staying away.
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Old 11-28-2006, 02:20 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Giants were looking ahead to this game and thought Tenny would be a cakewalk. Giants will show up Sunday.
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Old 11-28-2006, 05:41 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I disagree Austintx. I can't believe that any team looks ahead. In the NFL they only play 16 games, every game is crucial. You can't afford to look ahead. The Giants just got beat by playing crappy football the last 10 minutes. I don't believe that any team in the NFL is good enough to say " hey, this next team sucks, let's just show up and we can win".

In NCAAF maybe I cansee that, but not the NFL. Like I said, the NYG's are more thancapable of winning this game. I think that Romo has totally changed the Cowboys though. I just can't see that Giants defense stopping the Cowboys. But hey, that's why they play the games right?

Last edited by TexansFan : 11-28-2006 at 05:43 AM.
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Old 11-28-2006, 05:46 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Man, I can't believe that I am backing the Cowboys. I have always stated that my favorite team is whomever the Cowboys are playing. But you know what? Money talks, hatred walks.
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Old 11-29-2006, 01:56 AM   #17 (permalink)
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You can believe what you want, but its obvious with the 4th quarter meltdown in Tennessee that they thought this game was in the bag and in a sense, " looked ahead." Of course it happens. Where were we 4 weeks ago? Giants were on a streak of 3 or more consecutive wins and Dallas was one giant rollercoaster ride. Giants were even talked about as SB contenders. Now I see on PTI, topics asking Should Eli be Benched?, the FALL of the Giants....ect and at the same time, "The Rise of Romo" has been a local show hyping this kid up. I can't take anything away from Romo, but I can say that as good as he has looked you know he will have a slip up. All young QB's and even vets do as well. To think Romo will pass for 300+ yds 3 or more TD's every single game is in my opinion a tad biased and a little absurd.

My point is very simple.

The Giants were not as good of a football team as perceived during their stretch and the Cowboys are not as good as they have been perceived these past couple of weeks. Both teams were in good situations at the time. Vanderclank and Bledsoe did nothing positive for Dallas and NYG took care of business. Dallas played very well vs Indy, which I am glad cause they won me a little coin, but lets not forget a defensive TD that if reviewed would of come back and the absense of Stokely really hurt Indy cause he would of torched the Dallas safety.

All in all we come full circle to believe that these two teams are the best out of their division and Dallas should not be favored in NY. I personally think NYG - PK - 3 is fair. Anything between those numbers is a fair line. I understand why everyone will be betting Cowboys, but if you play the odds with the Cowboys, they are against you. As down as everyone is on the Giants right now, a win over the Cowboys will get them tied with Dallas at 7-5 and NY would own the tiebreaker.

Last edited by austintx05 : 11-29-2006 at 01:57 AM.
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