[alphaecho]

Here are my picks on who will cover for the week: I'm not saying I'm betting each game, but in an effort to get better I'm going to try and pick each game each week, to see where my strengths and weaknesses are. I think part of being a successful NFL better is having as much information as possible, and seeing as many angles as you can. So if you guys see something I'm not, please share it.

Houston +8.5 @ Philly: This game features two potent offenses. The Texans have recently covered this 8.5 spread against two of the best Ds in the league in SD and NY. In their last 3, the Eagles have given up nearly 300 passing yards to P Manning, Mcnabb, and 250 and 4 TDs to Cutler. Schuab has enough talent with Johnson and the NFLs leading rusher Foster. Asante Samual is questionable, and if he plays will not be 100% I think the Houston offense keeps them in this game. Philly wins, but by around 7 or less.

Buffalo +5.5 @ the Vikes: The Bills are a competitive team and since Fitzpatrick took over the offense has excelled. In their last 6 games they've covered this 5.5 spread @ Baltimore, @ KC, @ Cin, and at home against Chicago, Detroit, and Pittsburg. AP is a game time decision, and if he does play he won't be 100% I wouldn't be shocked if Buffalo won straight out.

Cleveland +4.5 @ Miami: Colt Mccoy will probably be out, which means Jake Delhomme gets the start. Hillis will get his yards, but I think Miami stacks the line and forces Delhomme to throw. Henne has been playing decent ball lately. I think the Dolphins win by at least 6 at home.

Denver +9 @ KC: Two division rivals, and two teams familiar with each other. The Broncos excel at passing and have the 4th best passing offense in the league. KC has the 24th worst passing D in the league. The Broncos just finished a 49-29 beat down of KC 3 weeks ago, so the Broncos are capable of scoring on this KC defense. I like KC to grind out a win, however, I think Orton and Brandon Lloyd will keep this a close game.

Skins +7 @ Giants: The Giants have injuries to Nicks, and Smith. However, I think this game will come down to defense. The Skins having the 29th ranked pass D, and the 26th ranked rushing D. The Giants are 1st in passing D, and 9th in rushing D. With the division on the line, I think Eli and Bradshaw exploit the skins shaky D. The Skins cannot run the ball and have both of their starting RBs out. They have the 26th ranked rushing game in the league. The Skins do have the 10th ranked passing offense, however, they're facing the Giants #1 passing D. I favor the Giants to win by two scores.

49ers +9 @ GB: The 49ers just lost their best player for the season in Gore. GB needs a victory at home to keep pace with the Bears. With the 49er run game dimished, I think the Packs' 10th ranked passing D pressures Troy Smith all day. Then the Packers 7th ranked passing offense over powers the 49ers medicore pass D for a +12 point victory.

NO -7 @ Cin - Cin is horrible, losing 8 straight games. The Saints are peaking right now, scoring 30+ in their last 3 games, and have won their last 4. Plus, the Saints get back Pierre Thomas, Shockey, and Darren Sharper to help contain Ocho and TO. The Bengals can't run the ball which mean they'll rely more on their passing game. However, the Saints have the 3rd best pass D in the league. I think the Saints win by 10.

Atl - 4.5 @ Tampa - Atl is hot coming off recent victories against Baltimore, and GB. The Bucs are a surprising over achiever this year, however they have problems passing the ball with the 24th worst passing offense. The Bucs have the 27th worst rushing defense. Michael Turner has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 of his last 5. With a healthy dose of Turner, followed by the 1-2 of Ryan and Roddy White I don't think the Bucs have enough to keep up. I like the Falcons to win by 5 or more.

Oak -12.5 @ SD - I think this game comes down to momentum. San Diego is on fire right now, with the NFLs top rated offense and defense. Meanwhile, the Raiders have stuggle mightily recently. The Raiders bread and butter comes from running the ball, and they're been unable to in their last 2 games. Given the fact the Chargers don't lose in December, and are at home looking to avenge an earlier loss I think the Chargers will light up the Raiders.

Carolina +7 @ Seattle- Two horrible teams in the same division. Usually that makes for close games. This game won't be pretty. I hear the suicide hotline is hiring extra staff for this game.

Dallas +5.5 @ Indy - This is an extremely hard game to call. The Cowboys have looked must better recently. I think this game is a coin toss as to who will cover. It's hard to pick against Payton Manning, however, if I'm forced to pick I'll take Dallas to cover. Kinta has had 300+ passing days in 2 of his last 3, and seems to be getting in better sync with his receivers. I think Indy will win, but it'll be close. I'm not putting any money on this game. Both Dallas and Indy are too unpredictable to bet against in my opinion.

Rams -3.5 @ Cards - The Cards are terrible, losing 6 in a row and rank in the bottom 25 in passing D, and in the bottom 30 in passing/rushing offense, and rushing defense. St Louis is a not a very good football team, however, they are better then the Cards. The Cards just gave up serious yards to the 49ers backup running backs, making Brian Westbrook look like the 2007 version of himself. Behind Steven Jackson facing the worst run D in the league, I think the Rams grind out a +4 point victory. Sam Bradford has looked good in his last three games, and appears to be getting better each week.

Steelers +3 @ Ravens - This is another game thats too close to call. Both teams are equally matched. Since I have to pick, I'll pick the Ravens because 1. They're at home and 2. Big Ben had his league in a boot all week. I'm not wagering any money on this game.

Jets +3.5 @ Pats - This is a tough game to call, but I'm going with the Pats. The biggest factor here for me is home field. With Brady starting the Pats have won 25 straight at home. The NE offense has looked good recently, putting up 30+ against the Steelers, Colts, and Lions. Meanwhile, the Jets have recently struggled to get Ws against Detroit (OT), Cleveland(OT), and Houston (Texans should have won this game, but collapsed late)
I think Brady and Hoodie pull out this victory covering the 3.5.

[Pap45murF]

Well, you're more informed about each team than the majority of betters, and assuming you use proper money management, you're already primed to hit at least 55%. As far as the picks, I generally agree with you, though the horrendous spreads are making this a BYE week for me. Now all you have to do is drop all those "too close" or "tough one to call" games from your ticket and you'll have about 7-8 well informed. obvious pick bets. Just continue what you're doing and when you lose, take note of why your team lost (weather, overrated D, dumb luck) and adjust for next week.

I'm doing decent this year at about 60%, but like you I'm still looking for all the feedback I can get.