1. 12-01-10 07:35 PM #1
    Juret
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    QB sacks prop - Texans at Eagles

    From my calculations I get a predicted average of 4.98 sacks in tomorrow's game, so I backed Over 4.5 at 5Dimes, -115

    anyone else who is in to this and agrees / disagrees ?
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  2. 12-02-10 09:14 AM #2
    John Dough
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    Wrong forum?
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  3. 12-02-10 09:40 AM #3
    Justin7
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    How did you get your number?
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  4. 12-02-10 10:41 AM #4
    Juret
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    yeah sorry for wrong forum..

    (Texans sacks caused * Eagles sacks allowed / LA) + (Eagles sacks caused * Texans sacks allowed / LA) / 11 = 4.98

    Then I used Poisson for deciding my fair odds.
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  5. 12-02-10 10:47 AM #5
    Juret
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    I also use the same method (normalizing) and discovered that Vick's pass completion fair average is 23.105 when I calculate. Pinny offers over 21.5 though.
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  6. 12-02-10 12:37 PM #6
    LostBankroll
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    Vick will be hard to bring down.
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  7. 12-02-10 12:52 PM #7
    Wulfman14
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    do these calculations work for you in the long term ? just curious
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  8. 12-02-10 01:05 PM #8
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by LostBankroll View Post
    Vick will be hard to bring down.
    He's been sacked 22 times in less than 8 games.
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  9. 12-02-10 01:07 PM #9
    gamecock0118
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    He's been sacked 22 times in less than 8 games.

    Agreed, you don't have to bring him down to get a sack. Any fumble or even if you run him out of bounds behind the LOS works just as well.
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  10. 12-02-10 01:10 PM #10
    Juret
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wulfman14 View Post
    do these calculations work for you in the long term ? just curious
    I'm yet to find out, I am a beginner on props. that's why I want opinions and advices! but I believe it should
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  11. 12-02-10 02:16 PM #11
    Justin7
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    I think your method is good in general. Vick is a little bit of an anomaly though. Does he get sacked more often than Kolb?

    You may end up with nowhere near enough data, and just have to make your best fudged guess.
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  12. 12-02-10 02:26 PM #12
    durito
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    He's been sacked more often than kolb.
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  13. 12-02-10 02:38 PM #13
    Juret
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I think your method is good in general. Vick is a little bit of an anomaly though. Does he get sacked more often than Kolb?

    You may end up with nowhere near enough data, and just have to make your best fudged guess.
    How much data would I need for a prop like this? Teams change, so I guess only the current season's data is good for how many sacks a team causes and allows? But for the league average, then I want to look at several seasons' data, right? And last question, if a team has played more than one QB during the current season, do I want to exclude the data from those matches with a different QB than the starting QB of the prop I am pricing?

    Thanks a lot, this forum rocks!
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  14. 12-02-10 04:13 PM #14
    alka07
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    some of scrambles vick take is counted as sack so its good play in my thought
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  15. 12-02-10 06:33 PM #15
    horsiehung
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    This is a toughie...a little like the problem of using regression data in football being flawed due to the turnover factor...
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  16. 12-02-10 11:29 PM #16
    horsiehung
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    how many final sacks?
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  17. 12-02-10 11:48 PM #17
    rfr3sh
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    3 total sacks
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  18. 12-03-10 05:22 AM #18
    brettley
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    It seems like the sack line of 4 always goes under unless its the Bears, esp at the beginning of the season.

    Qbs are smarter these days in terms of getting out of the pocket and throwing the ball away. Also, intentional grounding doesn't count as a sack.
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  19. 12-03-10 11:08 AM #19
    gamecock0118
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    I'm starting to think team sack averages don't mean much. Close games between 2 good offenses yield few sacks. They really start to add up when you get a lopsided game or an unbalanced offense where the defense can really tee off on the QB.

    I guess the sack average of the team you think will be ahead will mean more than the sack average of the other team.
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  20. 12-03-10 01:42 PM #20
    Juret
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    interesting, I think I'll have to look what factors cause a higher number of sacks and not simply sack averages.

    anyway, got busted on the sacks yesterday but won a wager on Vick's pass completions. I'll be looking out for Monday Night props and be a little more careful.
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  21. 12-03-10 05:22 PM #21
    the shadow
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    If your numbers are correct, you will win 52.5% of the time. -115 was to high. Lets see the good old ratio and proportion.
    4.98/9.48=52.5%
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  22. 12-03-10 11:16 PM #22
    sharpcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by the shadow View Post
    If your numbers are correct, you will win 52.5% of the time. -115 was to high. Lets see the good old ratio and proportion.
    4.98/9.48=52.5%
    Thats definately not the formula for the poisson distribution
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