1. #1
    TodaysLocks
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    TodaysLocks **Official NFL PR System Thread**

    Many of you know me, many despise me, many don't care either way...

    In the past I used my excel system to predict winners when matched with certain trends.

    Recently my system hit a cold streak so I gutted it. I took out the trends aspect and stop weighing it so heavily.

    I also rely less on my simulations.

    I began noticing that the Power Rankings in my system were the key to picking winners.

    I then stumbled upon these amazing threads:

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...ng-system.html

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...ce-system.html

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...eet-picks.html

    These guys do an amazing job and using my system, and theirs, I have been back to winning ways the last few weeks.

    That said, cold streaks do happen.

    Anyways, here's how it works.

    When my Power Rankings have an Underdog ranked higher than a favorite, I play the UNDER.

    When the Underdog is favored by more than one point in my power rankings, I make a play on the Dog.

    When the power rankings have the DOG as a negative (if they are +3, I subtract the value of the teams power rankings), we play the under.

    For example:

    Atlanta v. New York +4

    Lets say ATL ranking is 92 and NY ranking is 89. I add 3 points to NY for homecourt.

    So its 92-92 = 0.

    Then I subtract the spread which is 4 and NY suddenly is a -4 point favorite. I would make a play on them AND play the UNDER.

    Its confusing but will eventually make sense.

    I'll update plays whenever I can.

    Tonights NFL plays are:

    SF/Ari UNDER 41.5
    -----------------------------

    I also will have ncaa football and nba threads. check em out and good luck.

  2. #2
    SoCalFisher
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    GL, glad to see you back at it.
    I will surely follow this thread.

  3. #3
    Bulls55
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    I will follow your thread, and good luck....

  4. #4
    BeBrave
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    Band Meeting Check

  5. #5
    TodaysLocks
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    System PR plays 11-29: 1-0

    We'll start fresh:

    YTD: 1-0

  6. #6
    Bulls55
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    Cashed in on your pick, thanks...............

  7. #7
    gv12
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    GL on the new system TL, off to a nice start

  8. #8
    GGPLAYER
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    Quote Originally Posted by TodaysLocks View Post
    System PR plays 11-29: 1-0

    We'll start fresh:

    YTD: 1-0

    Damn I missed the play but I have been reading your posts and I look forward to your plays.

  9. #9
    F42294
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    Sounds interesting, I'll follow lets see where it goes.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  10. #10
    latinrus
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    glad to see u back TL! I'll b checking ur thread!

  11. #11
    TodaysLocks
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    12/2/10 PR PLAYS:

    We have Philly as a 5 point favorite in our PRs.

    Add 3 for homefield and it's 8.

    We subtract the -8.5 spread and suddenly we have Houston -0.5.

    Not strong enough to play the DOG, but strong enough for:

    Hou/Philly UNDER 52

  12. #12
    Bulls55
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    Followed you last week, and cashed. So lets go for the under.................


    BOL to you................

  13. #13
    TodaysLocks
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    12/2

    0-1

    ytd: 1-1

  14. #14
    Aussiecapper101
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    GL

  15. #15
    doctacarta
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    TL, have you looked at the AI NFL overs? you on or off them?

  16. #16
    TodaysLocks
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    12/5

    My PR PLAYS:

    Denver +9

    GB/sf over 41

    FADE plays from Sportrends teams listed twice. (remember no disrespect just something I noticed):

    Denver +9

    Dallas +5

    SD -13

    Chi -4.5

    Lastly, over plays taken directly from my good friends in the Sportrends thread:

    Chi/DET over

    SD/oak over

    Buff/minn over

    Take over on whatever the line is but look for best value.

    Good luck.

  17. #17
    ebbearsfb1
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    so around 7 plays... cause probable not gonna on denver since one says fade one says play

  18. #18
    TodaysLocks
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    NOOOOOOOOoooooOoo!!! Don't fade the fade teams.

    Those are the teams you play on. You are fading KC, DET, Indy, oak

  19. #19
    ebbearsfb1
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    oooooooooooooo lol.... good thing i checked back

  20. #20
    Aussiecapper101
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    quite a nice start

  21. #21
    TodaysLocks
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    New filter is only play teams listed twice in the three systems like KC and Indy.

    Otherwise I'll be fading the over dogs every week. Doesn't make sense.

  22. #22
    TodaysLocks
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    Only FADE, not only PLAY.

    Sorry

  23. #23
    solecrazy
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    Tailed you today TL. glad to see youre back! no play on tonights game?

  24. #24
    TodaysLocks
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    Tease it sole. Pitt +9 under 44

  25. #25
    TodaysLocks
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    6-3 day.

    YTD: 7-4

    TodaysLocks PR plays were 3-0 today.

  26. #26
    solecrazy
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    I missed your earlier post cause i went out but i played pitts + pitts ML! Glad to see we both cashed

  27. #27
    doctacarta
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    Anything tonight? I'm liking the Jets.

  28. #28
    TodaysLocks
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    No PR play right now.

  29. #29
    PLAYA-PLAYA
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    LOCKS-----Nice Call On PITT-----Dead on with the "NO PLAY" on the TOTAL too------BEST OF LUCK BRO

  30. #30
    doctacarta
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    Anything?

  31. #31
    TodaysLocks
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    Yes now that the line is 4, a teaser is applicable.

    The jets 2 point dogs in my PRs, but 5 points when you add homefield. 5-4 = 1.

    Now with a 6 pt teaser we subtract 1-6 and get -5 value on the jets which is good enough for me.

    When I take the dog, I take the under.

    Jets +10 and UNDER 51

  32. #32
    TodaysLocks
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    Ytd: 7-5

  33. #33
    doctacarta
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    Play tonight? Shiva picked Ten and Over. my book is showing movement on the over.

    -Have a good one

  34. #34
    TodaysLocks
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    Unfortunately due to my PR I'm on rme under. I hate going against wiz and shiva but I stick with my PRs.

  35. #35
    GGPLAYER
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    Quote Originally Posted by TodaysLocks View Post
    Unfortunately due to my PR I'm on rme under. I hate going against wiz and shiva but I stick with my PRs.

    Never doubt the AI Overs!

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