I take a simple, gut feeling type of approach. I dont do the hardcore details or studying. I just feel that I know football and go with my gut. It was great for me last week as I hit everything I played and was a perfect 4-0 hitting on the ravens, skins, falcons and chargers. I think I got lucky on the falcons covering because they got a HUGE interception towards the end of the game when the rams were on the 2 yard line or so. If the rams got that TD, Falcons may not have covered. EIther way, I am playing with a bunch of house money this week, so here are my plays.
Pats at Lions: Pats favored -7: No play
No Play. Pats defense scares me and I think Cal Johnson could do some SERIOUS damage here. Lions have done well covering this year. Brady being questionable (which is A DOWNGRADE from the PROBABLE he is usually listed as) hasnt practiced this week and that is just a bad omen to me. The line could move up some by game time tomorrow which makes me not like this game even more. Best of luck to everyone playing in it, tho.
Saints at Cowboys: Saints favored -4: Saints cover by more than 4
I like the Saints a lot here. Gut feeling, but I like em here and I see Garrett getting his first loss here. I think Dallas has a really suspect secondary and Brees should kill em in the passing game. It's as simple as this- Saints are an elite NFC team. Cowboys are one of the worst in the league. I think people are liking the Cowboys here based off of the last two weeks, but I think that plays into them being overrated and affecting this line which I think is pretty generous. Saints defense is looking good, I still think Kitna sucks, and I just like Williams gameplanning against this Cowboys offense.
Shockey looks like he will be out, but it also seems that Sharper and Jenkins are back which is HUGE and will really hurt the Cowboys chance of moving the ball since the Saints are already 2nd ranked in pass defense. I think it comes down to the Saints being an elite NFL team and the Cowboys not being that good. Saints have been getting better each week it seems since a slow start and they should bury the Cowboys here. Key phrase being THEY SHOULD bury them. Who knows what will happen tho, always unpredictable. Bush might be back, but I am not banking on that since they will probably limit his time if he plays.
I do think the home field advantage can help the Boys here, but if the Saints come out and get a few quick scores, the home field advantage means nothing.
Bengals at Jets: Jets favored by -9: Jets win big
Jets should kill the sorry ass Bengals. Bengals cant stop the run, Jets have the 4th best rushing attack in the NFL. This opens up the passing game for Sanchez and Holmes/Edwards will kill a terrible Cinnci Defense. Revis Island keeps T.O in check, and Palmer will turn the ball over and play like crap. BEngals have not run the ball well either, which will not bode will for them against a great run defense. I know Jets games have been close lately, but they end that here against the lowly Bengals. Big win for the Jets. Probably will be my biggest play for Thursday.
Steelers and Bills, Steelers favored ny -6.5: Steelers cover by more than 6.5
This is probably one of my favorite plays for the whole weekend and it doesnt seem to be garnering a ton of interest from people. Again, I will look at this very simplistically and from a gut feeling approach. I think the Bills defense sucks and the Steelers put up points. I think the Steelers have momentum coming off of the win from last week. Bills simply cant stop the run, and that should open the passing game up some for Big Ben. The lack of a Bills rush will give Ben a lot of time in the pocket and should allow Mendenahll some rushing lanes. Again, the Steelers are a potential Super Bowl team. They should take down a sorry team like the Bills very easily. I know the Bills have been playing well lately, but the Steelers are a legit team and should put the Bills down.
Steelers need to keep pace here with Baltimore also, so they will come out firing. Again, I know the Bills offense has been playing well, but the Steelers defense should stop them. Bills wont be able to run the ball on the Steelers, and LeBeau should be able to gameplan against Fitzpatrick. Bills have won two in a row, also... Dont see them winning 3 in a row.
Simply put- Steelers have a better offense, better defense, and better coaching staff. Steelers cover and this is my favorite pick of the week.
Tampa Bay Bucs at Baltimore Ravens, Ravens favored by -7.5: My pick- Ravens to cover
Bucs have momentum and have been playing well. I love what Raheem Morris has done with this team and the energy they have brought. However, Baltimore will be a tough place to play for this young Bucs team. I dont think Baltimore has played anywhere near their full potential, but my gut tells me Ravens cover here. I dont have much to go on here and I really do think you could make an argument for either team to cover here. I like the Ravens D a little more since Reed has come back, but I do think they have been struggling. I also think the Ravens offense has been struggling.
I acutally live in Baltimore and have a good pulse on the team, and listen to the player interviews on local sports talk radio every day. Little bit of tension between Flacco and Mason has been manifesting, but my gut here tells me that the Bucs are a tad overrated despite their record and I believe the Ravens cover here. Again, Bucs have been playing well, they are coming off a big win last week and again, they look solid. But, I am going with the Ravens on a gut feeling. You can make an argument either way but my gut says Baltimore covers.
Eagles at Bears, Eagles favored by -3: My pick- Eagles
Look- I know the Bears have an amazing defense an playing in Chicago at this time of year on that field will be otugh and slow. But the Bears are overrated, and quite frankly I think they suck and I think Cutler is one of the worst QB's in the lague. I dont see the Bears getting any kind of run game going against Philly and I think Cutler turns the ball over. Philly hasnt been getting much love and I believe they are one of the more underrated teams in the NFL.
I have heard a lot of people saying the Bears win outright here, but I think Philly comes in and whoops them. My gut just says the Bears are very overrated and their lack of an offense kills them here. They wont run and Cutler will turn it over. I do expect the Bears to have a good game on defense, but I still see the EAgles winning a 17-7 or 17-10 type of game here and covering.
San DIego Chargers at Indy Colts, Colts favored by -3: My picks- San Diego Chargers win outright
I guess my gut is crazy and taking crazy pills or something for betting against Peyton Manning, BUT, my gut is telling me that the Chargers win outright here. I love what Rivers is doing and I love how the Chargers offense is operating. This is the time of the year that the Chargers just kill it and I think the Colts may be a tad overrated this year. There is no way in hell their defense is going to stop the Chargers, and I just think the Chargers defense is good enough to get a few key stops against the Colts. That will be the difference. The Chargers defense gets a few stops and the Colts dont get the key stops against the Chargers. Should be a close and electrifying game with some great offenses. Manning, Wayne, Rivers- they will all put up monster numbers.
I do think the Chargers run game could be another difference maker here. I know the Broncos have the worst run defense in the league, but the Chargers rushing attack looked good. And lets be honest, the Colts havent stopped any running backs this year, and Rivers great passing attack will drop the Colts back in coverage and open up some of those running lanes. Both teams are fighting for the lead in their division, and this will be a close one. It's going to be tight, electrifying, and HIGH intensity. My gut goes San Diego, to win outright, though, and pull the upset. And lets not forget, the Chargers have taken down the Colts in the past...
Niners at Cardinals, Niners favored by -1: my pick: Cardinals win outright
Niners suck, Troy Smith sucks, the Cardinals suck, this whole game sucks. I think Gore will put up some rushing yards here, but again, both of these teams are terrible. You can make an argument for either of these sh*t teams to win this game, but I won't waste my breath. My gut says Cardinals for some reason, so I am going with it. Cards win outright and pull the upset.