08-09-10, 07:28 PM
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#1
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Kroyrunner's Season Long NFL Thread (55-30-1 ATS in 2009)
I'm going to go ahead and throw everything in one thread this season, it'll be a little sloppier I suppose but overall it'll be a lot easier to find all of my stuff if it's in one place. I've been waiting for this season to start ever since the end of last season's Super Bowl, lots of areas I feel like I can still improve. Let's recap the 2009 season really quick:
Highlights
- Winning SBR's Beat the Prick Contest
- 50-25-1 ATS Regular season
- 15-3 ATS Weeks 1-4
- 7 Straight winning weeks
- 19 of 21 weeks .500 or better
- Correctly picking Saints +4.5 to win Superbowl
Lowlights
- 5-7 ATS Weeks 5-7
- 5-5 ATS in playoffs
As you can see, a lot more good than bad last year, but I'd love to eliminate the bad altogether this season. Of course, the best way to do this is learn from past mistakes. For my 5-7 ATS run, there's really nothing I feel I could have done differently. Although I had a couple brutal picks in there that deserved to lose, three of those losses were absolutely terrible beats. Runs like that happen, and we had our fair share of games break our way too so that all evens out in the end. The 5-5 ATS run in the playoffs is a lot more troubling to me, because I recognize how easily I could have avoided it. Simply put, I wasn't nearly selective enough. In the playoffs, assuming you pick one side and total per game that's a grand total of 22 picks you can have. That means I picked almost half of those potential plays, way too high of a ratio. Being honest with myself post playoffs, the 3 plays I was least confident in all lost and I really should have never released them. 5-2 ATS would have been much better than 5-5, but live and learn. That's an area I hope to improve this season.
So here's what to expect for 2010. Like last season, my goal is to finish the year having picked 67% winners or better. I will try and be a bit more selective than last year, but I also feel I can identify opportunity a bit better than last year too, so we'll probably finish the year around 90 plays one again. Also, like last season, all of my plays will be flat bet, I don't assign units to my plays. I do not pick preseason games, rather I watch and learn. However, up until the start of the regular season we can use this thread for game discussion or just general NFL news talk. I wish everyone the best this season, let's all give the books a good beating!  |
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08-09-10, 07:40 PM
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#2
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BOL to you. I use the pre-season to build my bankroll for the regular season. A ton of cash can be made in the pre-season if you know what to look for and know how to cap pre-season games. GL to you this season bud!
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08-09-10, 07:40 PM
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#3
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BOL  |
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08-09-10, 07:44 PM
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#4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsPicks3434
BOL to you. I use the pre-season to build my bankroll for the regular season. A ton of cash can be made in the pre-season if you know what to look for and know how to cap pre-season games. GL to you this season bud! |
Thanks bud, BOL to you with your thread as well. Will look your way during preseason and see if I can learn anything, for now it's just something I choose to avoid though. Hope to see you in BTP this year, and looking forward to your season long contest!
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08-09-10, 08:34 PM
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#5
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good luck man, i sure hope you hit 67% again and you will be getting some donations on your site! hope you can go 6-0 in week 1 again as wel! i cant wait
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08-09-10, 09:13 PM
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#6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kroyrunner89
Thanks bud, BOL to you with your thread as well. Will look your way during preseason and see if I can learn anything, for now it's just something I choose to avoid though. Hope to see you in BTP this year, and looking forward to your season long contest!
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08-09-10, 10:00 PM
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#7
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kroy how are you with college ball?
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145pts
SBR POKER TOURNEY5th Place 2/6/2012
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08-09-10, 11:49 PM
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#8
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Good luck to you and I will be checking in to see how it goes..
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08-10-10, 12:58 AM
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#9
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Best of luck Kroy! Lets beat the books this year!
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08-10-10, 05:11 AM
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#10
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Will keep an eye on this thread, along with SportsPicks.
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08-10-10, 06:10 AM
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#11
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BOL to you ! i will probly follow you all year |
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08-10-10, 12:00 PM
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#12
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KR89... looking forward to following your posts... best of luck!!
Cheers
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08-10-10, 12:56 PM
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#13
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BOL kroy, I hope you have another great season
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08-10-10, 02:15 PM
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#14
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[color=rgb(0, 255, 255)][Too Long][/color]
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Hey kroy, looking forward to this year's topic. I know you don't list units, but just for my info, what would you say has been your longest consecutive losing streak (so I can adjust and not bust my roll following you)?
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08-10-10, 06:19 PM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freeVICK
kroy how are you with college ball?
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I actually don't bet college, I don't following closely enough to predict games SU let alone ATS. Someday when I have more time though I'd like to get to know the sport better though and see if I could get good at it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyhy
Hey kroy, looking forward to this year's topic. I know you don't list units, but just for my info, what would you say has been your longest consecutive losing streak (so I can adjust and not bust my roll following you)?
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Consecutive as in games or weeks? If you're talking weeks, twice last season I hit .500 or worse 3 weeks in a row, but never took more than a 2.7 unit loss over either of those spans (assume 1 unit per game). In terms of games, I'd say never had more than a 3 game losing streak.
Too many wishes of luck to quote, but thanks to everyone who has, I'm looking forward to what'll hopefully be a great season!
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08-11-10, 07:12 PM
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#16
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And just let me throw a reminder out there just once, anyone who would rather get these plays by email rather than dig through this thread can PM me their email address and I'll add you to my mailing list!  |
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08-11-10, 08:32 PM
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#17
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i cant wait any longer for nfl and your picks, i hope you can make me some serious cash
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08-11-10, 09:01 PM
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#18
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Floggings continue until morale improves
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marking this thread so I can always find it.  |
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08-11-10, 09:23 PM
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#19
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wow, this is a decent win%. Is it from modeling, searching data or do you just watch games, or?
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08-12-10, 12:17 AM
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#20
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#1 rule to gambling: Bankroll Management
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Probably going to do 10 point teasers with some of your picks.
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08-12-10, 02:27 AM
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#21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jhack704
i cant wait any longer for nfl and your picks, i hope you can make me some serious cash
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Man believe me nobody is as eager for the year to start as me!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying Dutchman
marking this thread so I can always find it. |
Sounds good man! Best of luck this season!
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08-12-10, 02:33 AM
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#22
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BOl Kroy. Looking foward to a big year with my plays and I know you also will have a big year!
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08-12-10, 02:42 AM
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#23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsPicks3434
BOl Kroy. Looking foward to a big year with my plays and I know you also will have a big year! |
Very interested to see your NFL preseason and college stuff, you seem like a very intelligent capper and we could potentially each learn quite a bit from each other. Hit me up if you ever need anything!
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08-12-10, 03:02 AM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kroyrunner89
Very interested to see your NFL preseason and college stuff, you seem like a very intelligent capper and we could potentially each learn quite a bit from each other. Hit me up if you ever need anything! |
Thanks same to you bud! My door is always open to good people.
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08-12-10, 04:24 AM
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#25
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BOL this year
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08-12-10, 07:43 PM
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#26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterpan19
BOL this year
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Thanks you too!
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08-12-10, 07:52 PM
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#27
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Good luck. First year to follow american football. Will be checking in for your thoughts.
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08-12-10, 08:13 PM
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#28
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Rule #1: always be glad for what you get
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Kroy, followed your season with interest and some cabbage last year, with good results. I wish you success.
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08-12-10, 08:54 PM
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#29
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i found your blog late last season, cant wait to get on board this year!
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08-13-10, 06:54 PM
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#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manaconda
i found your blog late last season, cant wait to get on board this year!
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Thanks for following, hope I can make it a great season!
Quote:
Originally Posted by bombCanada
Kroy, followed your season with interest and some cabbage last year, with good results. I wish you success.
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Points Awarded:
 Darrad gave kroyrunner89 18 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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08-15-10, 02:15 PM
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#31
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Kroy, I am unable to PM you to send my email.  |
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08-16-10, 03:22 AM
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#32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darrad
Kroy, I am unable to PM you to send my email. |
Yeah mods apparently frown upon the PMing of emails, so they took away my pming privileges. If ya snoop around my SBR page you may find a way around this problem, don't wanna give away any details though just in case that angers the mods here too. Last thing I need is to get myself banned haha. BOL this season!
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08-16-10, 03:25 AM
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#33
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Yea the Mods are a bunch of pansies.
I just wanted to thank you for sending me those emails last season.
I would just rollover my Saturday college football winnings on to your plays. $$$$$
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08-16-10, 07:19 AM
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#34
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Kroyrunner, in another forum you said you were thinking about getting into one of the Las Vegas contests.
Which one do you think you will enter?
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CHARITY DONOR
12/02/2011
$25 donation
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08-16-10, 08:25 AM
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#35
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Kroy, I was on your email list last year and I assume that means I am still on your list. Have you sent out an email recently? Anyway, good luck again this year.
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