[BetWeather]

Just looked at www.ThePredictionTracker.com a free web site that
tracks more than 50 different handicapper systems.

Some of these systems do better than 77% predicting winners and
beat the spread more than 55% of the time.

They have history showing systems who are in the high 75% every year
for 10 years in a row.

Check it out...
Is it possible to make money betting 77% winners on the moneyline?

[THE PROFIT]

Interesting. The NFL is very predictable using systems. Some teams just have problems in certain situations. The key is finding those perfect situations

[filter15]

reallly????

[BetWeather]

Originally Posted by filter15

reallly????

Clever post...
BTW: there are only 2 L's in really...
However, both Parallel and Quintillion do have three L's.

[AlphaOmega]

interesting hummmmmm

[msec512]

I'll check it out too. Good idea

[GunShard]

I'll check it out, but I wouldn't depend on it yet.

[TheJer]

I will check it out to, but you never know.

[WendysRox]

I had to register simply to reply to this post. (OK, I wanted to register anyway).... Anyway, I wrote a database that uses the website you mentioned to derive quality picks. There is value to be found there, but not from ML betting or from trying to pick a capper to follow. Believe me, I've studied this website for 2-3 years and there is simply too much variance to just take the picks from the cappers tracked there. Now, on the other hand, I have been successful using his data and compiling my own picks.

[BetWeather]

Originally Posted by WendysRox

I had to register simply to reply to this post. (OK, I wanted to register anyway).... Anyway, I wrote a database that uses the website you mentioned to derive quality picks. There is value to be found there, but not from ML betting or from trying to pick a capper to follow. Believe me, I've studied this website for 2-3 years and there is simply too much variance to just take the picks from the cappers tracked there. Now, on the other hand, I have been successful using his data and compiling my own picks.

Welcome WR....
Lot of interesting stuff going on here!
So what your saying is your using the data there for a base and adding
your own spin ?

[Rig]

That site didn't work

[vboyt]

the key is to win thats all

[BetWeather]

Originally Posted by Rig

That site didn't work

Yes.. it does.
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/

Try cut and paste...

[stefan084]

interesting stuff, i'll take a look and get back soon

[WendysRox]

Originally Posted by BetWeather

Welcome WR....
Lot of interesting stuff going on here!
So what your saying is your using the data there for a base and adding
your own spin ?

yes. in short, i take his data, derive a difference between predicted spread of all cappers and the actual spread, plus a percentage of cappers that agree that a spread is incorrect, then compile picks from that. i have been constructing a database that does all this for me over the last few years. last year, for example, it hit at just over 56%. As with most cappers, I hope to have tweaked it enough to improve on that percentage this year, but time will tell.

[SHADYLANKY]

Always good to have another db to pull from. How reliable is the data?

[dvb02]

Interesting site.

[SHADYLANKY]

Oh all it does is track a bunch predictors like Saragin from the USA Today. Well GL to you with it.

[Skidcom]

I appreciate the lead

[Betting Guru]

I am a huge fan of handicappers systems. I have purchased quite a number of systems, only to have a handful of them to work. But thats what it takes to find a handicapper and system that you like. You have to weed-out the bogus guys and get it down to one/two handicappers that you can rely on.

[Duby]

Thanks for the info...NFL is the hardest sport to bet if you ask me so any help is always good!

[WendysRox]

Originally Posted by SHADYLANKY

Always good to have another db to pull from. How reliable is the data?

I'll spill the beans a little here.... For NCAAF, his data is fairly useless. For some reason, I can't come up with any reliable method to use his data to produce anything greater than a 54% win rate. In NFL, however, I can tweak the compilation of his data to produce a range of about 55-56% minimum up to anywhere from 63-67% win rate, depending on the situation (current spread, percentage of cappers on a side, difference between actual and predicted line, etc.). Of course, the higher the win percentage, the fewer the games released.

For instance, for NFL seasons 2007-2009, for road teams with a difference of 3-9.99 between actual spread and predicted spread, and greater than 94% of cappers on a team, it hit at 68%. However, that situation only comes up about once every other week. On the other hand, on any team, with a difference of 2-9.99 and a percentage of 60+, it hit at 56%... and these situations come up about 6 times per week. So, as I said, the higher the win rate, the fewer the games. Last year I just placed a unit on every play that met a certain criteria. This year, I will be using Kelly to adjust my bet size depending on how favorable I deduce my position to be. Hopefully, that will result in more growth, but time will tell.

So, I guess my point is this: there is some useful information there. But, it has taken me 3 years to contort that data into something profitable. Your time may be better served looking elsewhere.

[BetWeather]

WendysRox....

Could you explain a little more about what you meant when you said...

"teams with a difference of 2-9.99 and a percentage of 60+, it hit at 56%"

Is that the average of all the cappers... then the diff between actual spread and
predicted spread ? (2-9.99)

What do you mean by a percentage of 60+ ?