[kroyrunner89]

Hey everyone, we're now under four months away from the kickoff of the 2010 NFL season! As many of you are aware, odds for division winners and win totals for teams have begun popping up on some online sports books, as well as in Vegas. This year, I've decided to take a stab at some of these futures bets, as you saw last week when I did my Super Bowl write up. A quick note on that, consider the Packers as a team that I like now as well, I feel like there's some value there. I could go into a whole write up but I'll spare you until I touch on them again breaking down the NFC North. To help kill some of this time until the start of the season, I'm going to do a write up for each of the next eight weeks breaking down one NFL division at a time (With a little luck, we'll know whether or not Favre is coming back by the time I get to the NFC North). I'll be covering each team's win totals, while also looking at each team's odds to win their respective division. I'll start off this week with the AFC West, as this is probably one of the easiest divisions to break down. Win totals lines are taken from the Venetian, the division odds are from sportsbook.com.

A couple final notes, since it's the first year I'm trying futures bets, don't take my word as gospel. There's no guarantee I'll be as successful at these as I am at picking games each week, but I do feel my opinion could be beneficial to you guys, so do what you will with it. Also, just because I predict a team to have a win more or less than their win line doesn't mean it'll be a play for me. So, I'll have some instances where I say no play because I'm not confident enough that things will play out as I see them. So without further ado, here's what I'm thinking for the AFC West:

• Denver Broncos
• Win line: 7
• Odds to win division: +500 (5-1)

I expect the Broncos to take a step back in a big way in 2010. This is a team that started the 2009 season 6-0, yet had a disastrous 2-8 finish and missed the playoffs. Through those first six games their defense was rock solid, #3 against the run and #4 against the pass. In their last 10 games their pass defense stayed solid at #6, however their rush defense returned to it's poor 2008 form and was ranked dead last in the NFL over that span. Combine that with their passing and rushing attack disappearing, and it's easy to see why they struggled so much to finish out the season.

In 2010, the Broncos find themselves in pretty bad shape. For starters, Brandon Marshall, a huge piece of their offense, is no longer with their team. Marshall was responsible for about 1/4 of the team's yards through the air, and about half of their touchdowns through the air as well. Although other receivers will step up, the loss will still be felt. Throw in a tough schedule, and I don't see much hope for the Broncos in 2010. 5-1 odds aren't good enough to risk betting this team to win the West, so save your money.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Win line: 6
• Odds to win divison: +600 (6-1)

The big offseason acquisition for the Chiefs was probably RB Thomas Jones. Although they got much needed help at safety with#5 draft pick Eric Berry, he certainly won't be enough to turn that defense around. The Chiefs found themselves near the bottom of the NFL against both the pass and run, ranking 27th and 29th. The brightest area for the Chiefs was running the ball in 2009, as they were 8th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt. I expect this to remain about the same in 2010, as Charles and Jones should be quite the duo at RB. However, their passing game was abysmal, ranking 29th in the NFL. With no major new pieces in place this season (No disrespect to TE Leonard Pope), one has to wonder how big of a rebound this unit can really have.

Playing the AFC South in 2010, you have to think the Jaguars really look like the only winnable game of the bunch. In division, the Chiefs should be able to take two or three games from the Raiders and Broncos, but I can't see them beating the Chargers. They could pick up a couple wins against their NFC West foes, and Cleveland and Buffalo are both teams that I can see the Chiefs beating in 2010 as well. Obviously you don't want to bet this team to win the division, even at +600, another to stay away from.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Oakland Raiders
• Win Line: 5.5
• Odds to win division: +650 (6.5-1)

I'm just going to spare you all the suspense and tell you now not to bet the Raiders to win the division. Shocker. However, things are looking up in Oakland as the JaMarcus Russell era is finally over. The Raiders were able to acquire Jason Campbell from the Redskins during the offseason, and in my opinion he should offer this team a bit of a boost on offense. The Raiders' big problem on offense is still the lack of wide receivers, as Heyward-Bey still is reported incapable of catching passes consistently. Chaz Schilens spent most of last year injured, but began to show flashes of potential towards the end of the year. It remains to be seen if he can be an impact player this coming season.

Oakland struggled on defense last year, as they were 7th worst against the pass and 8th worst against the run. 9th overall pick Rolando McClain should help patch up some of the run troubles, and with Asomugha still at Corner Back the Raiders' woes against the pass can't be too bad. This will probably still be a below average defense, but it should take a step up from where it was a year ago. The Raiders get a bit tougher of a draw than the Chiefs, as their additional two games are against the Dolphins and Steelers, which is why I can't predict them to pass up the Chiefs this season. However, I can see this team improving slightly from where it was a year ago.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY

• San Diego Chargers
• Win Line: 10.5
• Odds to win division: -250

Like I said earlier, the Chargers are why this division is easiest to pick. Due to weak opposition and a strong offense, the Chargers are as close as you'll ever see me come to using the word "Lock" in one of my write ups. In 2009, the Chargers cruised to a 13-3 record, taking the AFC West with ease. However, this wasn't a team without flaws. For starters, their defense was 7th worst in the NFL against the run. Furthermore, their rushing offense was dead last in yards per rush attempt. Given these flaws, their 13-3 record looks all that more impressive in retrospect, and makes it a bit clearer why they lost to the Jets in the playoffs.

With the Tomlinson era having ended in San Diego, the door is opened for RB Ryan Mathews, who you have to believe will be able to do more for the Chargers than LT was able to last year. Sproles remains the #2 RB for the team, and will likely serve a similar function as last year. Mathews should help give this offense a bit more balance, and with Jackson and Gates still around, Rivers should lead an explosive passing offense again. The Chargers should do no worse than 5-1 in their division, and could easily sweep it. Six games on their schedule present potential challenges: @Colts, @Bengals, Patriots, @Texans, 49ers, Titans. Assuming they split these games and blow two games they should win, they're still an 11 win team. Looks to me like another easy AFC West title, making the -250 odds well worth a bet.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 10.5

2010 Predicted AFC West Standings:
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 6-10
Chiefs: 6-10
Raiders: 6-10

AFC West Plays:
Broncos UNDER 7
Chargers OVER 10.5
Chargers to win division -250

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays, see you all next week!

[kroyrunner89]

So you're confident enough in your one-win margins to bet them? That's a weird approach.

I think the Broncos are going to be even worse than you think, and the Raiders will be better.

Only on the Broncos and Chargers. For the Chargers, I see a lot more potential for them finish with more than 11 wins then for them to finish with less than 11. Take the same line of thinking and apply it to the Broncos, if my projection is wrong I think it will be wrong toward the low side. The reason I didn't have any action on the Raiders or Chiefs is because I could honestly see them going in either direction by a win or two.

[iwantcougars]

i think the broncos will be better than more people expect 8-8 is my call

[BigdaddyQH]

I think that you have to look at the schedule and look for winnable and losable games. I only see a couple of games that will really be tough for San Diego. I do not think they will come close to losing 6 games. Denver, in the other hand, has 6 potential non-division losers. That means that they will be very close to the 7 win line. I would pass on that.

[HoulihansTX]

• Denver Broncos
• Win line: 7

I might lay a nickel on the UNDER. Will be very eazy seeing how Broncs offense should be somewhere between an abortion, and a carwreck.

[giants06]

I think Broncos will again get some wins they shouldn't. So, i say 8-8 or 9-7.

[daneblazer]

i think the Chiefs are going to be a decent team for some reason.

[filter15]

the chargers didn't have an easy cruise to division winners, they were 2nd for about 8 week or so... half the saeson to the broncos.

[filter15]

i think the Chiefs are going to be a decent team for some reason.

agree

I think chargers stay about were they are, maybe decline a bit
Chiefs Should be n improved team, not sure their w-l will recognize that
Broncos I say 10% chance they become bottom dweelers, 30% they stay rigth like they were..30% a bit more competetive and 30% they become contendors
Raiders I say they proably stay low 5- range pulling a few upsets

[CaptainPrice]

Why does everyone think the broncos will suck?
other teams traded away their premier WRs this season. Cuse thats the only reason i get

these guys who just brush over the league pick up on the big things, but dont actually 'know' the team, the philosophy and understand how they work

[magic8ball]

I'm with Daneblazer. I think with all the pieces K.C has aquired over the last couple years they may surprise some people. I think the same for Detroit. Everyyear a team or two come outa nowhere. Bengals sweep their div. basically without Carson, as well as he played. Jets, Denver, Hell week 8 everyone still didn't believe Denver. I think at 6to1 for the division may be too long a shot but total wins...500 ball would NOT surprise me. Same with Detroit.

[madden]

It's unreal to predict that Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos will all get 6-10 results

But nice post, brother. I will do something similar, but with all divisions, in my thread, as soon as I get the time to do so.

So far I have only picked division winners.

[kroyrunner89]

Why does everyone think the broncos will suck? other teams traded away their premier WRs this season. Cuse thats the only reason i get these guys who just brush over the league pick up on the big things, but dont actually 'know' the team, the philosophy and understand how they work

It's unreal to predict that Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos will all get 6-10 results

First of all, I don't just brush over the league. What I also left out of the write up is the fact that their offensive lineman Clady, one of the best in the league, just had surgery on his knee due to a basketball injury and is going to miss significant time. Even if he makes it back in time for the regular season, who knows how it holds up. If you watched this team at all last year you saw how they struggled on offense, and yeah maybe people brush over the league and say without Marshall they'll be worse but that's an easy conclusion to make. He did a lot of the work on some of those touchdowns, you can't take an elite piece from this offense and not expect them to suffer. Other teams did lose elite receivers, prime example would be the Cards. But they still have Fitz, next best option for the Broncos is Eddie Royal now. The philosophy of this team last year was run first, and once defenses started focusing on shutting down the run and forcing Orton to beat them he was incapable of doing so. Now that he's lost a weapon it gets that much tougher.

And yeah, I know 6-10 for all three teams is pretty weird, not thrilled with how that projection played out. But these teams are all in rebuilding years, and I know it probably won't play out like this but it seemed like the safest projection for each one of them. Unfortunately they all happen to be in the same division haha. Doesn't matter if the Chiefs or Raiders have 4 wins, 8 wins, or 9 wins though, bottom line is Chargers are winning this division and the Broncos are going to struggle scoring points

[Rig]

Nice piece nothing too radical in there

keepin the work in the high statistical percentage of chane of correctness. Haha

though I do think the chargers will start slow again and one of these times they get caught maybe Denver again or kc will snatch it away

[kroyrunner89]

keepin the work in the high statistical percentage of chane of correctness. Haha

Isn't the whole idea to be right? Haha like I said this division is pretty straight forward, I'm sure I'll have some stuff that's a bit riskier when I get around to other divisions.

[beanbag]

[madden]

I got your point, and it's a good one if you're picking a division winner (actually it's not that hard, in this particular division), but you get deviated from your optimal expectancy when you bet on a 'win line' based on a 'safe', but not sound, winning projection.

[kroyrunner89]

I got your point, and it's a good one if you're picking a division winner (actually it's not that hard, in this particular division), but you get deviated from your optimal expectancy when you bet on a 'win line' based on a 'safe', but not sound, winning projection.

I get your point as well, however I'm not looking to bet the win line on every team. I ran a little simulation of expected wins for each of these teams based on how probable I thought it was they win each game they play, and these are the total wins I came out to. Obviously I'm not basing my projected records on this alone, but it's a decent part of the process. I predict my projected records with the idea of being safe and sound, although it's unrealistic to think I'll be right on every single one. So I look and try to see which ones I feel I have the lowest potential for being wrong on, and those are the win lines I decide to play. Don't take this as me arguing with you or anything, just trying to clear up the angle I'm approaching this from.

[AlphaOmega]

The Chargers will win the west.. again

[Rig]

Anyone bet against the chargers here?
Just curious

[jbrent95]

Nice write-up.

[BigdaddyQH]

Even though the odds are terrible, the Chargers seem to be free money here. You can find major faults with the Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders, but not with the Chargers, or at least not until we get to the playoff season.

[lakerboy]

chiefs will win the west-

[CaptainPrice]

chiefs will win the west-

take that lock off there

[miley]

Chargers will win the West. It's a lock.

[kroyrunner89]

Well there's always the possibility of an injury to someone like Rivers, so I wouldn't use the word lock. But it's definitely the best option

[balman]

Hi Kroyrunner89 do you have any historical data? like % of teams that repeat as div champs? or do u look in depth at each team(free agents, draft, strenght of schedule etc).... how did you come up with your final standings.... i know each year we all make pics that always look good at the start of the season based on last year's stats but then u get your Jets, Bengals of 2009 who u didnt see winning... like the effort and reading your write up...

[mr.inpak]

lay -260 chargers win west gift

[kroyrunner89]

Hi Kroyrunner89 do you have any historical data? like % of teams that repeat as div champs? or do u look in depth at each team(free agents, draft, strenght of schedule etc).... how did you come up with your final standings.... i know each year we all make pics that always look good at the start of the season based on last year's stats but then u get your Jets, Bengals of 2009 who u didnt see winning... like the effort and reading your write up...

I look in depth at each team and try and figure out where they've improved or gotten worse, and try and figure out what their strengths and weaknesses are. Then I go game by game and lay a rough estimate on what their odds of winning that game are, then I go through it again and try to settle on a reasonable record in that vicinity. You're right though, you always have those surprise teams every year and while everyone does their best to try and predict them it's usually very difficult to do so. I'd be shocked if I got each division winner right, someone will surprise as usual this year. But if I hit five or more that should be good for at least a small profit.