I'm sure some of you aren't too surprised to see me on the Saints in this one as I've been a believer in them all season. However, I can assure you that any bias I may have towards them has been removed and I've done what I feel to be a thorough analysis on this one. I'm jumping on this line now because with it looking less and less likely that Freeney will play (or be anywhere near his normal self if he does), this line has started to drop. Regardless of how healthy he is though, the Saints would be a play for me in this spot.
When I look at stats to try and analyze a game, I do my best to remove games where one team or the other was at a disadvantage due to injuries or resting players. Obviously, the Saints' defense spent most of their games after playing the Patriots banged up on defense (and offense a bit with Shockey/Bush missing time), and the Colts had to have a couple games removed due to resting players and one game against a banged up team. So, I'm sure a lot of you are combing stats too looking for an edge, know that this is why my numbers might be different than some that you are seeing.
Let's start by looking at each team's passing matchups. These are two of the elite passing units in the NFL, with the Saints passing for 8.23 yards/attempt, and the Colts throwing for 7.57 yards/attempt (1st and 3rd in the NFL). Both teams played very similar quality of passing defenses, and each team's pass defense is among the elite in the NFL, the Saints allowing 5.71 yds/attempt and the Colts allowing 5.79 yds/attempt (6th and 8th in the NFL). Assuming Freeney can't go, this is obviously a knock to the Colts' defense, and should give the Saints an advantage of being able to send an extra receiver out if they don't have to double him. Also with Freeney out, it seems to me like the Saints will be able to generate more pressure on Manning then the Colts will be able to generate on Brees. Of course, as we've seen in previous weeks pressure can lead to bad decisions and turnovers. Although both of the QBs are among the best at taking care of the ball, the edge goes to the Saints here as well. Manning has averaged just over 1 interception per game, while Brees has averaged .7 interceptions per game. When you look at the defenses and their ability to generate turnovers as well, the Colts average 1.2 interceptions/game while the Saints average 1.92. Although past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future results, it can indicate which results are more probable to occur.
The rushing games of each team don't have any huge edge for one side or the other, but I have to think that the Saints have a slight advantage in this category too. The Saints have run for 4.66 yards/rush attempt this season, while the Colts have struggled mightily running for just 3.65 yards/rush attempt (6th and 30th in the NFL). The Colts' rushing attack offers the most intriguing matchup here, as the Saints have struggled against the run all year. The Saints' defense has allowed 4.64 yards/rush attempt, 29th worst in the NFL. Given the mediocrity of the two units facing each other here, I'm thinking that there really isn't much of an edge for either side. The Colts' run defense has been above average this year, allowing 4.06 yards/rush attempt, 11th best in the NFL. I think that we've got a better chance of the Saints being able to assert themselves on the ground than the Colts, which should give them the advantage of having to be less one dimensional.
Although there is some concern about the lack of Superbowl experience on the Saints' squad, this is a team with strong veteran leadership that I believe can overcome it. Besides, in a game where Manning will likely have to rely on young receivers such as Garcon and Collie, I don't see how you couldn't argue that they'll be impacted as well. I think this will be a great Superbowl, as neither team could be considered dead if they fall a couple scores back. I expect an exciting finish, and in my mind the worst case scenario for the Saints is a 4 point loss. Given that in my worst case scenario they still cover, I'm confident that this is the right play as is my system. Good luck to everyone with this final wager of the season, I look forward to starting all over again next year!
Kroy's Super Bowl Play (54-30-1 ATS YTD)
Nice write by the way
