Superbowl betting trends are always interesting to consider but really the only ones worth seriously looking at are the recent ones.
What happened 20 years ago is really irrelevant to what will occur in this year’s Superbowl betting. Let’s take a look at some recent trends that might help us as we bet on Super Bowl action.
Superbowl betting trends can go all the way back to the first Super Bowl in 1967 but those mean very little. Let’s keep it more recent and look at the past five Super Bowls. With regular season NFL betting many gamblers will only look at the past few games and we will take a similar path with Superbowl betting trends. The favorite is 2-3 against the Superbowl betting pointspread in the past five years. Straight up, the favorite has won four of the last five Super Bowls with last year’s upset being the only time the underdog won straight up for gamblers that bet on Super Bowl odds. The Patriots have been involved in three of the last five Super Bowls but they are 0-3 against the Superbowl betting pointspread although they won two of the three games outright.
Four of the last five Super Bowls have gone under the Superbowl betting total including the last four in a row. Sometimes in gambling things go in streaks and right now the under has been on a nice roll in Superbowl betting.
The AFC has won four of the last five Super Bowls with the Giants win last year being the only NFC victory. Last year’s 12 point spread was the highest in the last five years while the Steelers 4 point number against the Seahawks was the lowest Superbowl betting number in the last five years. The highest total was last year’s number of 55 that went way under while the lowest total was the 37.5 when the Patriots faced the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII and that game went way over for gamblers that bet on Super Bowl totals.
Last year was the 13th time a team had been favored by double-digits in Superbowl betting lines and the underdog has won outright five times. If the favorite won the game, they covered the Superbowl betting pointspread in six of their eight wins.
If you like the money line as you bet on Super Bowl odds you should know that the underdog has won only 11 times in 42 years although in games with double-digit pointspreads, the underdog has won five times.
Super Bowl betting trends: Manning has faced—and shredded—Gregg Williams before
There are plenty of key Super Bowl trends to analyze before this weekend’s game, but one in particular will stand out: Peyton Manning has a very impressive resume when it comes to shredding defenses run by Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Let’s take a look at all the trends, including the Manning vs. Williams matchup.
The Saints head into the Super Bowl in a major slump against the spread. Despite a solid 7-3 record straight up in its last 10 games, New Orleans managed to cover NFL odds just once in its last seven games (during the 45-14 romp over Arizona in the divisional round).
The Saints have been an underdog just once this season—a 23-10 loss to Carolina in Week 17—meaning we don’t have much data to digest how New Orleans reacts in such a situation. Regardless, it has to be better than being the favorite; the Saints are a pitiful 3-7 against the spread in such a role this season (though much better straight up at 8-2).
The story is much different in Indianapolis, where the Colts have excelled when sportsbooks give them an edge. Indy is 7-3 against the point spread in its last 10 outings; two of those losses came in meaningless end-of-season games in which the Colts rested their starters. The other was a one-point victory over the Patriots (Indy was favored by 1.5).
New Orleans has won three of five against the Colts, but let’s toss out the first three meetings (1995, 1998, 2001) since they stretch so far back. In the most recent matchups (2003 and 2007) Indianapolis emerged victorious in convincing fashion. Peyton Manning didn’t just hurt the Saints—he absolutely destroyed them with nine touchdowns, zero picks and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The net result was 41-10 and 55-21 victories.
Saints bettors will point out this is a very different team, especially with Gregg Williams at the helm, but proceed with caution. Yes, the defensive coordinator has put together a very impressive, ballhawking unit, but he’s had a lot of trouble stopping Manning in the past. Since Williams became head coach of the Bills in 2001 (with subsequent stops in Washington and Jacksonville) he’s faced Peyton Manning six times. Manning is 5-1 with 14 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 145.1 passer rating. That’s not a good sign for New Orleans fans.
At 56.5 at Bodog, Super Bowl betting fans are facing a rather large spread, but that’s no unexpected given Manning and Drew Brees will be prominently involved. Indy has gone over the total in five of its last six games (though, in fairness, twice it was because Buffalo and New York ran up the score in those aforementioned giveaway games). The Saints, despite their high-octane offense, have gone over just twice during the same span. However, it’s important to note the four “unders” came during the Saints’ late-season swoon; they’ve bounced back to go over in both playoff games with an average score of 38-21.
Favorites of 7 or more points are 11-9-2 ATS.
All Super Bowl Favorites are 28-12 straight up and 21-17-3 ATS, but Favorites are just 4-6-2 ATS in the 12 Super Bowls.
The straight up winner of the Super Bowl is 36-5 ATS.
The NFC holds a 20-18-3 ATS edge.
The AFC is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 Super Bowls
FYI only
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