By Micah Roberts VegasInsider.com
Trying to find a few props I feel most comfortable with was tough searching through the 350 props that the Las Vegas Hilton offered. However, I found a few I do like just based on what I have seen this season, not taking a shot at middles of some of the free money out on scalps.
The player I have been looking at is Joseph Addai and what I believe his role will be in the game. All season long, Addai has been just good enough and reliable enough to show that the Colts can run the ball a few times to try and keep the defenses honest by showing the run.
He didn’t have a 100 yard game all season. In fact, his high for the regular season was 79 yards in Week 13. His season-high including the postseason was 80 yards against the Jets in the AFC Title game.
In 12 of his 17 games played this season, Addai rushed for less than the posted total of 65 ½ at the Hilton. In seven of those instances, Addai rushed for less than 50 yards.
Another note to keep track of is that back-up Donald Brown is healthy and when Addai had his best rushing games of the season in Week 13 and 14, Brown was out.
Brown was an intricate part of the Colts offense before getting hurt in Week 7. Over the same span, Addai didn’t crack higher than 64 yards in any game.
I would expect to see Brown be more of impact for the Colts Sunday and give the Saints a look the Colts haven’t shown for a few months. If Brown does see more action as I expect, the Addai prop numbers on the 'under' will all come in easily.
Should Brown stay in the six carries range like he’s been the last few weeks, I still like the 'under' on most of Addai’s rushing props.
Another prop available is the longest rushing attempt by Addai, set at 12 ½ yards. This is a volatile prop that could go either way, such as the Colts being in a third and long situation with a draw gaining 14 yards, but still having to punt.
Addai’s longest run of the year was 21 yards. Five times Addai had a game with less than a 12-yard rushing attempt. I lean to the 'under' on this prop.
The one prop that I do like Addai to do well in is for him to score a touchdown. When the Colts get inside the 5-yard line, the ball usually goes to Addai and somehow he always comes through. He had 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 regular season games this season with an additional three receiving. TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: JOSEPH ADDAI (IND)
**(If no Rushing Attempt--Under is the winner)
OVER 65 ½ -110 UNDER 65 ½ -110 Prediction: 47 yards LONGEST RUSH BY: JOSEPH ADDAI (IND)
**(If no Rushing Attempt--Under is the winner)
OVER 12 ½ -110 UNDER 12 ½ -110 Prediction: 9 yards TOTAL RUSHING ATTEMPTS BY: JOSEPH ADDAI (IND)
**(If no Rushing Attempt--Under is the winner)
OVER 15 ½ -110 UNDER 15 ½ -110 Prediction: 14 carries WILL JOSEPH ADDAI (IND) SCORE A TOUCHDOWN? YES -130 Prediction: YES, 3 yard TD run
NO +110 Bud Shootout/Super Bowl Prop
The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted a Super Bowl proposition involving the winning car number in the Bud Shootout with the first half total of Super Bowl.
The posted number for the first half is 28 points. The Super Bowl eventual first half total between both teams is favored to have the higher number as a 3 ½-point favorite over the NASCAR winner‘s car number.
This looks like a a good bet on the Super Bowl total even though there is a large variable number involved with the possibilities that car No. 48 driven by Jimmie Johnson or No. 88 driven by Dale Earnhardt, Jr. have a good shot at winning in Saturday’s race.
However, there looks to be way more upside in looking at the candidates to win the shootout who have car numbers ranging from No. 1 to 24, beginning with the likely winners of either No. 14 Tony Stewart or No. 18 Kyle Busch.
As a bonus in this proposition, bettors taking the Super Bowl side with a higher number also get No. 9 Kasey Kahne, who was fastest in the final practice session, as well as No. 11 Denny Hamlin, No. 1 Jamie McMurray, No. 2 Kurt Busch, No. 5 Mark Martin, No. 16 Greg Biffle, No. 17 Matt Kenseth, No. 20 Joey Logano, and No. 24 Jeff Gordon.
There are only 24 drivers racing and all but three of the top restrictor plate racers are driving with cars under No. 24 or less, which makes this highly advantageous based on the offered total of the first half.
It’s quite possible that the Super Bowl could score far less points than expected in the first half, but having trying to beat a likely range of 1 through 18 makes it look pretty juicy by taking the Super Bowl side.
WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Bud Shootout--February 6, 2010) Prop closes at 5:10 pm Pacific Time
WINNING CAR NUMBER AT BUD SHOOTOUT +3 ½ -110 SAINTS/COLTS 1ST HALF POINTS -3 ½ -110
**Bud Shootout Race must be official Big Bet In Las Vegas
The Las Vegas Review-Journal speculated Friday that a combination of renowned bettor Billy Walters and poker player Phil Ivey made a wager on $2 million on the Colts money line laying minus-200. The MGM-Mirage sportsbook confirmed they took a wager of seven figures, but wouldn't comment on who made it, and rightfully so.
Ivey has been known to be a large bettor around town, but hearing the Walters name was surprising because he likes to keep things hush. Most sportsbooks know some of the players that bet his plays, but few know the actual arrangement between the bettor, whose actual money it is, and what percentage the source of the play gets after winning.
If it were actually proven that Walters had been involved in the wager without proper identification given by both the bettor and the agent, there would be Federal and State issues involved in which both the property taking the wager and bettors involved would be subject to fines.
I can tell you this, regardless if it's true or not, there is no way a property would knowingly give Walters $2 million on anything, even the Super Bowl where the possible $1 million loss would be a blip to the bottom line.
The good news is, whoever made the confirmed bet, that we are seeing signs of big money flowing into the books as the game nears.
I'll be back tomorrow with more stuff from Las Vegas.
Super Bowl Props and Notes
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