[jhack704]

im doing some research on nfl nccaf nba and mlb. i did last 2 yrs of nfl and ncaaf so far. i did 2007 nfl season and im half way through the 2008 season but found a very interesting trend and i want to see if it continues throughout and in the 2009 season as well. i dont want to give away how i came up with these numbers but i have a system im working on but here are the stats....

out of 86 games so far that quailified in my system

48 times the favorite covered

so of the 38 that didnt cover 28 of them (underdogs) won outright

5 of the 10 favs that didnt cover but won the spread was 10 or higher

3 of the remaining 5 favs that didnt cover but won the spread was 7 or higher

so pretty much 76/86 (88%) games so far had the fav covering or underdog wins

so that means the favs will cover or the underdog wins outright!!

i got to finish the 08 season and do the 09 season but good trend so far.

[BigdaddyQH]

Your point? Just exactly what do you mean by "qualify" in your system?

[jhack704]

well 88% of the time a fav covers the spread or underdog wins outright. i dont want to give away what im working on and i still have a yr and a half to go to see if it even works out but i just posted that to say im working on something and it seems to be good so far

[BigdaddyQH]

I will save you the time. That is a well known fact in Las Vegas. The number is actually closer to 86% in both NCAA and NFL Football in the past 5 years, but your numbers are certainly in the ball park.

[jhack704]

not every game is qualiified though unless you know what im looking for

[BigdaddyQH]

I just used the numbers in Vegas for EVERY College and NFL game for the past 5 seasons. You are talking 88% for a season or two. They are talking 86% over 5 seasons. There is not a big enough difference to make an issue over. All you are saying is that the team that wins outright wins 88% of the time ATS. Again, this is no suprise to anyone who has been at this game for a while.

[jhack704]

no i know what you mean, but thats not what im doing. im using line movements and how they move to come up with that number..

[jhack704]

where did you find your info on last 5 yrs

[jhack704]

theres got to be a way to bet both ways right?? then as long as the fav covers or underdog wins you will be up money, but if fav doesnt cover and wins then your screwed but that only happens 14% of the time

[Shafted69]

Keep it simple and fade the public. In the long run you will always come out ahead .........................





















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[jhack704]

Keep it simple and fade the public. In the long run you will always come out ahead .........................
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i have noticed that as well

[chisox19]

good find...hopefully it holds up

[jhack704]

yeah it has im on 2009 and it has. i just got to dig in farther and try and see if i can find something that will show me to take either the fav ats or the underdog straightup. at least so far i know 90% of the games each week that'l be a cover or underdog win. i also know never bet on a spread over 10 for sure and anything over 7 is a little risky as well. i really want to make some money next season so im trying to do some work for me and hopefully help others out as well

[jhack704]

but as big daddy said every game is pretty much the fav covers or loses the game outright, im just trying to dig in and see if i can find a trend and which way to go on those games but a 88% clip is a good starting point

[filter15]

so you play moneyline and fav against spread and lose 12 %
is that profitable???

[jhack704]

no im saying 88% of the time either the fav covers or the underdog wins that game outright, only 12% of the games i did have the favorite winning and not covering the game

[BigdaddyQH]

Your problem is that there is no general trend. You have to look at each specific team, in each specific situation. Example. Last season, Fresno State won 6 games as favorites, but went 3-3 ATS in those games. Floirda was favored in every lined regular seasn game last season and won them all,yet had a 6-5 record ATS. Texas did worse, having a 5-7-1 ATS record in their 13 wins. Washington State was a dog in every game, and only won 1 of them. You are looking for a system that does not exist, and never will. You are confusing the issue. If you add up the favorites who win games, and cover ATS, and then toss in the 100% of the dogs who are going to win straight up, you get a false figure, and that is what you have. What you have to do is the same thing that every other gambler has to do. Figure out who will win and who will lose.

[Vangel330]

this really doesnt' mean anything....plus you only pulled 3 years of trend....that's probably not enough statistics.

[jhack704]

i know thats what i said i have to do now is figure out when the underdogs will win

[jhack704]

I FINSIHED THE LAST 3 SEASONS OF NFL. I CAME UP WITH 142 GAMES THAT THE LINE MET MY SYSTEM AND HERE ARE THE NUMBERS...

out of 142 games that quailified in my system

74 times the favorite covered

so of the 68 that didnt cover 50 of them (underdogs) won outright

8 of the 18 favs that didnt cover but won the spread was 10 or higher

5 of the remaining 10 favs that didnt cover but won the spread was 7 or higher

so pretty much 124/142 (87%) games had the fav covering or underdog wins

NOW I AT LEAST KNOW WHAT GAMES EACH WEEK THIS SHOULD FALL UNDER AND NOW I JUST HAVE TO FIGURE OUT A TREND TO SEE IF I CAN FIGURE OUT WHICH WAY IT GOES.