[seaborneq]

Looks pretty tempting. Colts are great at not fumbling and Peyton does not throw INT's, and Saints will probably drop more passes and run very little in the game. Feedback. Any other good props out there?

[MC PICKS]

A good longshot which isnt all that unlikey with these two high powered offenses is game goes to OT +1200.

[alukk]

no way this happens,

[Boner_18]

Did you see how many fumbles were in the NO/MIN game?

[JuicedUp]

there won't be 3 unanswered scores in the game....+155....ehhhh?????

[BigdaddyQH]

Like all prop wagers, this one is terrible. You have two indoor teams playing in an outdoor stadium. What about the weather? What happens if it is rainy, or windy? What happens if one team falls behind late and gets desperate? Prop wagers are what pay for those fancy neon lights in Vegas and those pretty ladies who serve all of that free booze.

[durito]

Like all prop wagers, this one is terrible. You have two indoor teams playing in an outdoor stadium. What about the weather? What happens if it is rainy, or windy? What happens if one team falls behind late and gets desperate? Prop wagers are what pay for those fancy neon lights in Vegas and those pretty ladies who serve all of that free booze.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[durito]

Like all prop wagers, this one is terrible. You have two indoor teams playing in an outdoor stadium. What about the weather? What happens if it is rainy, or windy? What happens if one team falls behind late and gets desperate? Prop wagers are what pay for those fancy neon lights in Vegas and those pretty ladies who serve all of that free booze.

So why aren't prop limits higher and game limits lower?

[TheLock]

How can someone say "all prop wagers are terrible" and be taken seriously on SBR?

unreal.

[durito]

In this case, I'll take YEs there is a TO up to at least -2000

[GRUMPERZ]

it amazes me that people with so many posts can still be so fkn stupid when it comes to sports betting

[chaseman]

I'm with ya Lock. I'll be taking this prop for a small amount. Why not? Half a unit isn't much. You (seaborne) make a good point--These two teams, especially playing each other, are going to base the win off of fewer turnovers, as statistically, the team who turns it over the least wins. Seeing as both of these teams aren't very turnover-prone, with two great quarterbacks and some big receivers, I think it's a decent play. If anyone puts the ball on the ground, it will be Reggie Bush. A tipped Manning pass would probably be the only interception on the Colts side. Not sure about Brees in a big situation like this--hell it's the Saints in the superbowl! No trends yet for them..

[chaseman]

This reminds me of all the people ridiculing those who posted the Nets ML as a play last night...

[durito]

1) How many turnovers do you project in this game?

2) What does that then make the fair value on O/U .5?

[BigdaddyQH]

So why aren't prop limits higher and game limits lower?

Oh really? Are you telling me that you can wager 50K on a prop, because that is done all the time in Vegas on games. Now maybe no one in here can wager that much, but the sharps can, and do all the time. Even The Greek has a 25K limit on a superbowl spread wager. Please show me where you can put 25K on a prop wager. The fact of the matter is that if you know ANYONE who works for a book in VEgas, they will tell you that prop wagers are their biggest money makers, percentage wise.

[sooner13]

Looks pretty tempting. Colts are great at not fumbling and Peyton does not throw INT's, and Saints will probably drop more passes and run very little in the game. Feedback. Any other good props out there?

Peyton threw 2 INT's in the Baltimore game. The Ravens just screwed themselves on both. You can most definitely count on a fumble and if you say the Saints will rely on passing not running then one could assume that the chances increase that an INT will happen. Less chance of turnovers when it's a balanced attack. GL tho.

[durito]

Oh really? Are you telling me that you can wager 50K on a prop, because that is done all the time in Vegas on games. Now maybe no one in here can wager that much, but the sharps can, and do all the time. Even The Greek has a 25K limit on a superbowl spread wager. Please show me where you can put 25K on a prop wager. The fact of the matter is that if you know ANYONE who works for a book in VEgas, they will tell you that prop wagers are their biggest money makers, percentage wise.

Can you read?

I said:

So why aren't prop limits higher and game limits lower?

Try again.

[turnip]

Oh really? Are you telling me that you can wager 50K on a prop, because that is done all the time in Vegas on games. Now maybe no one in here can wager that much, but the sharps can, and do all the time. Even The Greek has a 25K limit on a superbowl spread wager. Please show me where you can put 25K on a prop wager. The fact of the matter is that if you know ANYONE who works for a book in VEgas, they will tell you that prop wagers are their biggest money makers, percentage wise.

Just to be clear, you're contending the following:

1. Props are a more efficient market than spreads and totals.
2. Sportsbooks want "sharps" wagering a lot more money than "squares."


Really?

[durito]

What book has this wager?

[Powderguy]

Opening kickoff fumbled +3600!

[durito]

id assume carib or sportbook

Nope. But, sbook did just put up all their props.

[durito]

I'll conservatively put the total expected turnovers at 3.1 (i actually made it higher at first).

That would make over/under .5 -2120/2120.

The # of expected TO's would have to be less than 2.225 for this wager to have value. Average # of TO's in an NFL is about 3.5.

[seaborneq]

What book has this wager?

TheGreek.

[durito]

TheGreek.

thanks I somehow missed it during the 45 times i've checked their prop page today

[Rich Boy]

5dimes is only charging -101 for coin flip props, not bad.

[donjuan]

Looks like the prop is a 3 way choice for first turnover of the game, not a yes/no or o/u .5 prop.

[durito]

i still don't see said prop

[durito]

Looks like the prop is a 3 way choice for first turnover of the game, not a yes/no or o/u .5 prop.

ah ok, too bad

[seaborneq]

thanks I somehow missed it during the 45 times i've checked their prop page today

My mistake D, it is 5Dimes.