Jets at Colts
Judd Hall
VegasInsider.com
It’s not too often that a Week 16 game could come back and bite you in the ass, but that’s exactly what could happen in the AFC Championship Game on CBS at 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday.
Indianapolis (15-2 straight up, 10-4-1 against the spread) was en route to a 16-0 regular season and possibly even a history making Super Bowl championship to shut up the 1972 Miami Dolphins when they met the Jets at home in Week 16.
The Colts held onto a 15-10 lead with just over five minutes left in the third quarter when they decided to pull their starters. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter fumbled the ball when he was sacked by Calvin Pace, while Marques Douglas ran the ball back for the go-head touchdown. New York (11-7 SU, ATS) never looked back as they won as a 4 ½-point road pup 29-15.
Outside of that run at perfection, there wasn’t anything else Indy was playing for in that game since they had home field advantage wrapped up. The Jets, on the other hand, desperately needed to win that game to stay in the playoff hunt. Rex Ryan’s club took advantage of that win and a triumph in the regular season finale over Cincinnati (who didn’t have a damn thing to play for) to punch its ticket for the postseason.
Ryan actually took umbrage to the fact that his Jets were longshots to win it all at the start of the playoffs, but should he so miffed?
“As someone that was on the Jets in the regular season finale against the Bengals as well as their tainted win over the Colts, I would objectively make the case that they are overrated,” states VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Paul Bovi.
“This is a team that lost to the Jags, Falcons, Dolphins, and Bills at home this year and had the good fortune of facing two teams in Cincy and Indy that had next to no incentive to win their regular season games.” Bovi continues, “While they deserve credit for their playoff victories, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Chargers imploded on Sunday with costly penalties aside from their over all lack of execution.”
There is no doubt that the Jets have gotten lucky during the playoffs. This is a team that has seen its first two playoff opponents go 0-for-5 on field goals, when their kickers (Nate Kaeding and Shayne Graham) had missed five total field goal attempts during the regular season altogether. San Diego committed 10 penalties against the Jets last Sunday; they saw just under five yellow flags thrown against them during the regular season.
AdvertisementAs lucky as Gang Green has been in the postseason, we should give credit where credit is due. New York had the best rushing offense in the NFL during the regular season at 172.3 yards per game. They’ve kept that pace up in the playoffs, averaging 170.0 YPG on the ground through their first two tests. Shonn Greene has been particularly impressive with 263 rushing yards and two trips to the end zone.
New York has needed its rushing game to perform because offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be damned if he takes to the air with Mark Sanchez under center. Sanchez doesn’t have terrible stats for the playoffs (63.2 completion percentage, 282 yards, 2 touchdowns), but those numbers are misleading. The rookie signal caller only had 23 pass attempts against the Bolts, completing 12 of them for 100 yards for a score and a pick. In fact, he’s only had five games this year where he threw the ball more than 30 times.
Unfortunately for Sanchez and the rest of the Jets’ offense, Indy’s defense looked pretty darn good last week. The Colts gave up just 87 yards on the ground and 183 through the air to Baltimore in a 20-3 lambasting as 6 ½-point home favorites. They also got Joe Flacco to throw two interceptions, but that’s a bit misleading since they came in the final two minutes of the game.
Those numbers against the pass for the Colts last week makes sense as they were 14th in the league, giving up just 212.7 YPG. Plus, Sanchez only threw for 106 yards against them in Week 16. Against the run, however, Indianapolis will be tested by the best when you consider they have the NFL’s 24th-ranked rush defense, allowing 126.5 rushing YPG.
And if the defense doesn’t hold steady, it’s not that big a deal. At least it isn’t a big deal when you have the best quarterback the league has ever seen in Peyton Manning. All he’s done is rank in the Top 10 in efficiency (99.9 rating), completion percentage (68.8 percent), passing yards (281.3 YPG) and touchdowns (33).
Manning has even been able to do this with a rebuilt receiving corp. Now he’s still getting the major contribution out of Reggie Wayne (100 receptions, 1,264 yards, 10 TD) and Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TD). What we didn’t expect was Anthony Gonzalez being out for the season with a right knee injury. What we really didn’t expect was getting great performances second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (47 rec., 765 yards, 4 TD) and rookie target Austin Collie (60 rec., 676 yards, 7 TD).
Indy needs the passing game to click because its rushing offense is lacking. The Colts are the worst running attack in the NFL, gaining 80.9 YPG on the ground. Joseph Addai has done a decent job with 828 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Donald Brown has shown flashes of his days at Connecticut, but has only gained 281 yards on the ground with three scores.
Success for the Colts on the attack is definitely not guaranteed against the best defense in the NFL. The Jets are giving up 312.5 YPG in the playoffs right now, but are second to only the Ravens with three interceptions. Darrelle Revis has two of those picks to his credit, one coming against San Diego last weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that New York was the best pass defense in the league with an average of 153.7 YPG during the regular season.
Even though the Jets are leading a charmed life and have (for bettor or worse) won in Indianapolis, the Colts are still listed as 7 ½-point home favorites with a total of 39. Bettors can play on New York to keep jamming its foot into that glass slipper for a outright win at a plus-280 return (risk $100 to win $280).
The Colts were actually just 4 ½-point home favorites for that much talked about game in Week 16 against New York, but Bodog’s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner explains the difference. “In week 16, when the Jets played the Colts, the line was actually as high as -6, but with the signing of the third strong QB of the practice roster books realized that the Colts were not as interested in playing for the perfect season and the line dropped to -4 ½. This week obviously the Colts do have something to play for and there are no questions that the book has to answer about playing time for the stars. This game is a must win for both teams, not just one, so that allows for the 3 ½-point move from the last games closing line.”
Recent history for the AFC Title Game bodes well for the Colts as the favorites have gone 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven bouts. The ‘over’ was a profitable 5-2 in that stretch as well.
Adding fuel to that fire is the fact that Indy has gone 23-3 SU in the last five years when they’re posted as a 7 ½-point home “chalk.” Bettors have watched them cover the spread in 11 of those contests though. New York has shown an affinity for helping its backers cash in at the window when listed as a road ‘dog, as evidenced by a 7-2 SU and ATS mark. That includes a 4-2 SU and ATS record for the Jets on the road in Ryan’s first season.
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