[swisher33]

I have been doing research and have come up with these numbers:


Indis avg. a 6 point margin of victory vs. top 10 pass defenses
Indis average total is 35 vs. top 10 defenses
The Jets are the number 1 pass defense

The Jets stats aren't consistent because they have been run heavy since they entered the playoffs. Cincinnati and San Diego have similarly ranked run defenses as the Colts and those were low totals.


Indianapolis' margin of victory doesn't mean much because the beat baltimore by 17 and they are a top 10 pass defense.

The under is a good play here. I don't see much value in taking the Jets +7.5 when Indi has a great home field advantage. If the line moves to +10 which is probable, I would hit that.

[slacker00]

It's not going to get to 10.

If anything, it'll move down. It's a nice number if you like the Jets. It won't get any nicer.

[swisher33]

What I'm trying to say is +10 would be the valuable pick and the line could hit that.

[BigdaddyQH]

There is absolutely NO WAY that the line hits 10. If anything, the line goes down. Look at the ML. It went up to Jets +300, then went down immediately to +270. No one is going to dump that much money on the Jets. Everyone expects this to be a low scoring game. The Jets offense is not much better than the Ravens. They scored on a 16 yeard drive, and a 54 yard run. They did not have a consistant drive all day against San Diego. The Colts offense looked good at times against Baltimore, basically in the last two minutes of the first half. The rest of the game looked like a scrimmage. The total has shown more movement than the spread, going from 41.5 down to 40.5. Do not expect big odds in what is perceived to be a low scoring game. It will not happen.

[ronaldo922]

this line wont move to 10..no way

[slacker00]

What I'm trying to say is +10 would be the valuable pick and the line could hit that.

What I'm saying is that it won't get to +10 and that +7 1/2 is as good as it gets.

There is absolutely NO WAY that the line hits 10. If anything, the line goes down. Look at the ML. It went up to Jets +300, then went down immediately to +270. No one is going to dump that much money on the Jets. Everyone expects this to be a low scoring game. The Jets offense is not much better than the Ravens. They scored on a 16 yeard drive, and a 54 yard run. They did not have a consistant drive all day against San Diego. The Colts offense looked good at times against Baltimore, basically in the last two minutes of the first half. The rest of the game looked like a scrimmage. The total has shown more movement than the spread, going from 41.5 down to 40.5. Do not expect big odds in what is perceived to be a low scoring game. It will not happen.

I agree that it doesn't get to +10, but your logic is flawed. Money would have to dump on INDY to move the line up, not the JETS. You've got it backwards.

Also, can you break your points into individual paragraphs? Otherwise it's incoherent.