Editor's Note: Judd Hall has been on fire in the NFL with a 6-1 run in the last two weeks. He's back with four more winners this weekend. Click to win!
Debates are always going to be part of our lives. “Ginger vs. Mary Ann,” “Great Taste vs. Less Filling” and “Kirk vs. Picard” have permeated through every level of conversation amongst the general public. The current debate now is to find out if it is better to have a week off after the regular season or keep momentum going by playing in the Wild Card round.
We’re going to see which side of that last argument will have more ammo on Sunday as the Cowboys head to the Metrodome to face Minnesota (12-4 straight up, 9-6-1 against the spread) at 1:00 p.m. EST on FOX. Dallas (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) is coming into this weekend’s showdown after dumping the Eagles as a four-point home “chalk” 34-14 on Jan. 9. It was the final “bugger off” the Cowboys could do to Philadelphia as they’ve won all three meetings this season – the 13th time that has happened in NFL history.
When you look at the stats from last week’s game, they’re close in terms of total yardage with Dallas winning that battle 426-340. But the Eagles were held to just 56 rushing yards, which brings them up to 93 yards over the last two weeks.
Tony Romo had another solid outing against Philly, completing 23 of his 35 passes for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s been very good over the last four games with a 66.7 completion percentage, 288.3 passing yards per game, six scores and two interceptions.
Romo was able to ration the aerial assault effectively with five receivers having at least 27 yards last Saturday. Miles Austin showed his worth once more with 82 yards and a touchdown on seven catches. Roy Williams even looked good with five receptions for 59 yards.
Dallas was also able to pick up 198 rushing yards against the Eagles. Felix Jones proved to be a force to be reckoned with, gaining 148 yards and a score on 16 carries last Saturday.
The Cowboys’ defense had no problems pushing around the running game as previously mentioned. That play kept Philadelphia to converting only two of its 11 third downs in the Wild Card round. Dallas should be considered with the fact that they allowed 284 yards through the air.
AdvertisementDallas’ stoppers will need to be on top of its game because the Vikings have one of the more dominant offenses in the NFL.
The Vikes were already a playoff team entering this season with Tavaris Jackson under center. That was before they got America’s favorite flip-flopper Brett Favre into a purple jersey.
Favre has dramatically improved the offense in his first year in Minnesota. Last season, the Vikings were gaining 330.5 YPG with 184.8 YPG come through the air. With John Madden’s muse under center, they’re fifth in the league with 379.5 YPG and 184.8 passing YPG.
That increase helped Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin become Pro Bowlers. Rice is picking up 15.8 yards per reception this season, taking eight of them to the house in his best year to date. Harvin has enjoyed a great rookie campaign with 790 receiving yards and six scores. Also, Visanthe Shiancoe has proven to be one of the NFL’s top tight ends with 56 catches for 566 yards and a team high 11 touchdowns.
Harvin earned his stripes this year as a kick returner by bringing back 42 kickoffs and punts for 1,156 yards, scoring twice. Only two returners had a better average yardage per return than Harvin’s 27.5 YPR.
When you have an offense throwing the ball around with success, the running game would understandably take a tumble. Minnesota is picking up just 119.9 YPG on the ground in 2009 to rank 13th overall. Last year, they were gaining 145.8 rushing YPG to rank fifth.
The funny thing about those numbers is that fans don’t give a damn because Adrian Peterson doesn’t let you focus on them. Peterson picked up 1,383 yards this season, which is down from the league leading 1,760 yards he picked up on the ground in 2008. But he’s found the end zone 18 times in his sophomore campaign; Peterson had just 10 touchdowns in ’08.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Vikings have one of the NFL’s top defenses. This unit is in the Top 10 in points allowed (19.5), rushing defense (87.1) and total yards (305.5). They also lead the league with 48 sacks. Minnesota’s resident redneck Jared Allen has accumulated 14.5 sacks this year to rank second only to Denver’s Elvis Dumervil. Allen has already brought Romo down twice in his career with five solo tackles against the Cowboys.
Given how closely these teams match up, the sportsbooks have made the line just as close with Minnesota listed as a 2 ½-point home favorite with a total of 45 ½. Bettors can back the Cowboys to win outright for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
“This line wasn't hard to make. We knew going in that no matter what, versus the Cowboys... the Vikings were going to be the home favorite and never by more than three-points,” says betED’s sportsbook manager Randy Scott. “And now because Dallas is running red hot right now that automatic -3 for the home team isn't going to surface, instead it's -2 ½. Some books have added extra juice on the -2 ½ (-115).”
“The action we are getting right now is pretty much two-way. There is a lot of buying points on both sides of this line as well as teasing the number both ways,” concludes Scott.
If we’re looking at just amount of money on a particular side, then Dallas is king. According to Sportsbook.com, 86 percent of the cash on the money line is backing the ‘Boys. They’re also hold a 55 percent majority on covering the spread.
Bettors are no doubt paying attention to Dallas being on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against the Vikes. The most recent meeting coming in the preseason with the Cowboys winning as three-point road pups 35-31.
What those gamblers may not be aware of the fact that the Vikings boast a perfect 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS mark (14-1 SU, 8-6-1 ATS in last two seasons) at home in 2009. Of course, gambler may not want to lay $140 to take them to win outright.
When you factor Minnesota as a home “chalk” coming off of a bye, then they are 9-0 SU and 5-3-1 ATS. The ‘over’ is also 7-2 during those matches as well.
Dallas has done fairly well on the road this season by going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. The ‘over’ went 5-3 as well. As road pups over the last five years, however, the Cowboys are just 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS. What backers of the Cowboys have to be hopeful about is the fact that they are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when listed as road underdogs against a team coming off of an open date.