By Judd Hall
VegasInsider.com

Editor's Note: Judd Hall has been on fire in the NFL with a 6-1 run in the last two weeks. He's back with four more winners this weekend. Click to win!
Before the playoffs even started, Jets head coach Rex Ryan stated that he believed his team should be favored to win the Super Bowl this season. His squad will get a chance to gain a few more believers this Sunday at 4:30 p.m. EST on CBS when New York (10-7 straight up, against the spread) heads to Southern California to face the Chargers.
The Jets are certainly backing up their coach’s big words after picking up their second straight win over Cincinnati as 2 ½-point road pups last Saturday, 24-14. The win improved Gang Green to 4-2 SU and ATS when posted as road underdogs this season.
New York moved onto the second round of the postseason on the legs of rookie running back Shonn Greene. The first-year rusher from Iowa racked up 135 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Greene has seen his number called a lot more often in the later stages of the season as he’s gained 292 yards on 50 carries over the last three weeks.
Greene, along with Thomas Jones, have helped the Jets field the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL. They averaged 172.2 rushing yards per game during the regular season. The closest playoff qualifier to them is the Ravens, who are fifth overall at 137.5 YPG.
Mark Sanchez came away with a relatively mistake-free performance, completing 12 of his 15 passes for 182 yards and a score. Perhaps most important is the fact that he didn’t get sacked once by the Bengals last Saturday. There is no doubt that offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is reigning in the rookie signal caller to keep him from screwing up.
Even if Sanchez does wind up dropping a deuce on the field, Ryan has football’s best defense at his disposal. The Jets are eighth against the run (98.6 YPG) and No. 1 defending the pass (153.7 YPG). They also have amassed 31 takeaways (17 interceptions, 14 fumbles) during the regular season. The Jets even picked up a fumble and pick against Cincy last week, translating into seven points.
New York’s top defender is cornerback Darrelle Revis. The third-year defender out of Pittsburgh has picked off six passes for 121 yards and a touchdown. Revis also leads the NFL with 37 passes defended.
As good as Revis has been this season, he is still just one man. How does the rest of the team fare this weekend? “Darrelle Revis certainly deserves the credit he is receiving but the rest of the defense for the Jets will be seriously tested this week with San Diego’s (13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS) depth in pass catchers,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Joe Nelson.
AdvertisementJackson is the biggest deep threat and Revis will likely limit some of his big play potential but 6'5" Malcolm Floyd really emerged in the second half of the season and allowed the team to part ways with veteran Chris Chambers.” Nelson concludes, “Legedu Naanee also has made some big catches and the running backs are also threats out of the backfield in the passing game. The biggest concern has to be Antonio Gates, however, as he enters the playoffs healthy, seemingly for the first time.”
Nelson is spot on about Gates. The Kent State product is 16th in the NFL with 79 receptions, picking up 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns. Gates was also the top tight end to move the chains with 77.2 percent of his receptions resulting in a first down.
Jackson has proven to be San Diego’s best deep threat for the year with nine scores and rests in the Top 10 with 17 catches for at least 20 yards. He’ll no doubt be the man that Revis will be marking on Sunday.
Regardless of who is making the catches, odds are pretty damn good that Philip Rivers will find the open target. Rivers has completed 65 percent of his passes for 4,254 yards with 28 touchdowns to nine interceptions. He is also third-most efficient quarterback in the NFL with a QB rating of 104.4.
San Diego also has a potent running game with LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield. Tomlinson has rushed for 730 yards and 12 touchdowns. While the scores are comparable to last season (11 TD in 2008), his yardage is way down from the 1,110 yards gained on the ground in 2008. That’s mainly because the Bolts are passing team that uses running backs as safety valves. Darren Sproles is a perfect example of this with 343 rushing yards and three scores to go along with 497 receiving yards and another four touchdowns.
We have a pretty good idea that the Chargers are good on the attack, but they’re no slouches on stopping the opposition. San Diego is 20th against the run (117.8) and 11th in defending the skies (209.2).
The teams might seem like they could be pretty even, but the sportsbooks beg to differ. Most outlets are pushing the Bolts as seven-point home favorites with a total of 42. Gamblers can back the Jets for the outright upset at plus-250 (risk $100 to win $250).
According to Sportsbook.com, bettors are falling over themselves to play on New York. The public has put 87 percent of its money on the Jets to win outright. Meanwhile, Gang Green is fielding 59 percent of the cash there to cover the spread. It almost goes without saying that this game is picked up the betting public’s attention.
Bodog’s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner sums it up best, “This game is already seeing the most handle early even though it will be the fourth game played.”
Gardner’s unit has listed San Diego as an eight-point home “chalk” with a total of 42 at the time of publication.
“The Jets-Chargers game is an interesting one for the books as San Diego was the hottest team at the end of the season and were continually being bet heavily regardless of the line and opponent. The Jets on the other hand were bet heavy in Week 17 but the book actually needed them to cover the number in last week’s playoff game, although the Jets have far and away seen the most action on future bets after Coach Ryan's bold statements.” Gardner adds, “So obviously we take both factors in but we look more at the power ratings and how the teams will match up when setting the line. The Chargers well balanced offense has the ability to take an early lead and force the game in to the hands of Mark Sanchez which as a book we still treat as a wild card factor.”
One factor gamblers should keep in mind is the fact that San Diego has gone 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS this season at Qualcomm Stadium. The ‘over’ posted a promising 6-2 mark as well.
After last week’s win, the Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS away from the Meadowlands in 2009. If you look at their mark as road pups over the past two years and you’ll see that they are also 6-3 SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2-1 in that stretch.
What could prove problematic is the fact that New York is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS when posted as a road underdog against a team coming off of a bye.
If there is one thing that we can say about the Bolts is that they haven’t been the strongest team coming off of an open date. San Diego has gone 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS as a home fave after a bye since 1995. If you’re just looking since Marty Schottenheimer’s last year in 2006, then the Chargers are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in that run. The recent head-to-head meetings are trending heavy towards the Jets as they’re 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven matches. The ‘over’ has posted a small advantage at 4-3 in that time.