[statnerds]

smart money is a myth. it isn't smart and loses as much as it wins

so here is the chance for all the ultra-intelligent cappers and bettors on SBR to prove me wrong.

in God we trust, all others bring DATA.

if you have nothing more than a photo, a one-liner or a story, then fukk off

bring numbers to support your claim or remain silent.

[lyon804]

You got a point statnerds... I'll tell you who the smart money is statnerds.. The books.. They are gambling same as us, but with better odds. The only way for anybody to win consistently at sportsbetting is patience,patience,patience. The reason I say that is because most will not even get over the threshold of breakeven going of a win%. The game is not about win% for me or any profitable bettor. I go off of units. I want to be right when I have a big play way more than I am wrong and the other bets in between is just to keep me sharp,focused and interested. The books are so good many times with most games it really is a coin flip. Now, I am not talking NFL. I really don't bet NFL, but am successful in NBA. Take for instance todays game with Arizona and NO.. Now, I know their are many passionate about that game and have the winner, but you really could argue that game either way.

EX. as you well know this statnerds, but most novices don't

Say you take New Orleans -7 -110
Books in return have Arizona +7 +110

Or Vise Versa, either way the books are +110 on the other side of your bet. A 20% swing in value....
It's a wonder that so many are unsuccessful over the long haul?????

Who, would you rather have??

Again, my point. You have to have extreme money management and understand value and pounce when the opportunity arises to get the paycheck.

Now, I know you know all this statnerds.. I just thought I would share it for many of the others that don't know. Might encourage them to get another hobby. One that is less expensive. Truth is rather you are smart or not you have to work your ass off to have any edge. I spend many hours a day at this. I am profitable, but it is at a major expense. I sometimes don't think it's worth it in term of the value of my time, but I do it because I love it and enjoy the major challenge. Anybody, that can win money sports betting can damn near do anything.

Good Thread Topic!!

[statnerds]

over the course of a month i beat my new local for $800. last week i lost $300. he swung by my house to pick it up driving a Lexus SVU. i said nice ride, i think i'd like to have one.

he said "well than be the guy answering the phone instead of calling"

that was a great fukking line, and so true.

[lyon804]

over the course of a month i beat my new local for $800. last week i lost $300. he swung by my house to pick it up driving a Lexus SVU. i said nice ride, i think i'd like to have one.

he said "well than be the guy answering the phone instead of calling"

that was a great fukking line, and so true.

Your right. I just can't live their lifestyle though. I am married with a child. I'll say this about bookies... They earn their money. Sure answering a phone is easy, but dealing with scumbags and stiffs day in and day out.. Let's face it. Most people that bet, gamble or whatever you call it are the lower rung of society as evidenced by players talk right here at SBR.

Being a bookie is a liscense to steal. Most of their customers will be awful bettors, making awful selections and betting into bad numbers anyways. I have been their and done that in my youth. Hell, over the first few years of gambling I didn't keep records, but I was clueless and hit well below 50% like most people here.

On that rare occasion you get a player that is a winner... No problem. Just offset his action elsewhere and tail him. Either that or tell him he is finished.

I had two local guys I booked with, plus offshore. This past summer in MLB betting one of my locals settled up with me and told me to not call anymore because he wasn't interested in my action. He was a small timer, but my big timer doesn't care how much he pays me. He has learned to tail my NBA,MLB picks.

I said all that to say.. Booking is a liscense to print money. You just need time and a cleint base and everything else is on your side. Unfortunately, we are the guys calling instead of answering the calls.

[BigdaddyQH]

I have no idea what you guys are trying to prove here, but books and bookies do NOT gamble. They are in the business of making money, not gambling. Lyon, your math is a bit off, but you understand the gist of the message. You lay 10 cents onthe dollar when you wager at many books. If you win, you get your vig back. If you lose, you lose it. So the books are going to make 5 cents on the dollar, if the wagers are even between the two teams. It is that simple.

As far as the verbage used in here and in other posts, you can call it what you want. "Smart", "Sharps" or whatever. The fact of the matter is this. People do win at this game, and win on a very consistant basis. Being part of that group (15% of the players), I can tell you why we win on a consistant basis. We win because we use every available tool that we have. We play middles as often as possible, because by playing middles, you are risking the least for the highest possible return. We also have a complete and total understanding of sports odds, and how they are set. We understand and fully realize that we are playing against other players, not the books. The books just act as a broker and charge a fee for their services. That is all. We also understand that by wagering large amounts of money, we are privy to certain priveledges, such as wagering when the lines first come out, instead of having to wait for the lines to open up to Joe Pub. We also understand that like any other job, you must have the best equipment and statistics available to make a profitable decision. And most importantly, we realize that the fewer the games you wager, the greater the success ratio is.

There is a huge difference between the average player and the professional. Yo guys go to work, come home, and decide to play on a game. With the professional gambler, this IS work. If you want to be a success at it, you must give it 5/40+, not just a glimpse of the line and a few blurbs on a web site. As in anything in life, in order to beat a system, you must know everything about the system first, and that means EVERYTHING. The professional gambler probably forgets more about a game than Joe Pub knows. It takes that kind of dedication to win in this game. We are talking about a business here. Our business is to take as much money from the average guy as possible.

[lyon804]

Your funny bigdaddyqh!! You are talking to me as if this is my first day on the job. Let me tell you something... It's not. And as far as working at it goes.. I have bags under my eyes from the lack of sleep I get. I am putting in well over 5/40. I spend anywhere from 10-14 hrs a day working at this looking for any edge possible. Not sure who you have me mistaken for, but your compass is a little off.

I pretty much agree with everything you said as you were trying to "educate" or teach me.. Joe Pub. As far as bookies and books gambling you are squarely wrong. You haven't got the foggiest idea what their posistion consists of on a nightly basis. Their methods and numbers are sound enough with the "vig" over the long term they are not gambling, but in the short run the books are gambling every nite and day. however, they are doing with the cushion of the vig.. You act as if though they never have imbalances on one side and everything is always 50/50.. If you knew as much as you think you know you would know this couldn't be furthur from reality. The books rarely get 50/50 and alot of games it's not close, but fortunately for them more times than not the games that are heavily one sided don't go the way the money has bet it.

I appreciate the tutorial though. Anytime you have something that isn't on a beginners level stop by and find me!!

[PAULYPOKER]

If my accusations go the way I predict this should shut everyone up once and for all
this is the top 10 bets of the day MLs has a bearing factor today
HOLY SHIT BATMAN!!!
#1 Arizona Cardinals -Money Line
RUH! ROH! RAGGY!
#2 Arizona Cardinals - Point Spread
#3 New Orleans Saints - Point Spread
#4 Indianapolis Colts - Point Spread
#5 Baltimore Ravens - Point Spread
#6 Arizona Cardinals - Over
#7 Sacramento Kings - Point Spread
#8 Baltimore Ravens - Money Line
#9 Pittsburgh - Point Spread
#10 New Orleans Saints - Under
Going by what the books want it looks like SAINTS ML&UNDER for sure

I am sad to announce because of the FIXED! FACTOR!
If you are on these below wagers your chances on winning in order from best to worst are
1.saints ML
2.under
3.AZ line
3.saints line

[Pensinger1]

[ ] OP makes a valid point.
[x]
[x] OP should stop making a fool of himself.

[statnerds]

color me surprised that yet again all the loud-mouths presented no evidence whatsoever to prove the existence of "smart" money.

it is almost as if the majority of posters are merely talking out of their asses