[LT Profits]

Now these stats have nothing to do with my selections, I am merely presenting them as a counterpoint for those that like the fact that the higher seeded teams are all well rested this week:

Courtesy of walterfootball.com

Playoff teams coming off byes are 7-17 ATS since 2003 (4-12 since 2005)

For teams like the Saints and Colts that rested their regulars in Week 17, the following teams rested their starters in Week 17 before a playoff game. This chart, which goes back to 2002, when the divisions re-aligned, shows how each squad performed in its initial postseason contest. The asterisks denote teams that had first-round byes, like the Saints and Colts.

2009: Saints* - ???
2009: Colts* - ???
2008: Titans* - Loss SU (straight up), Loss ATS (against the spread)
2008: Colts - Loss SU, Loss ATS
2007: Colts* - Loss SU, Loss ATS
2007: Jaguars - Win SU, Loss ATS
2007: Steelers - Loss SU, Win ATS
2007: Buccaneers - Loss SU, Loss ATS
2006: Eagles - Win SU, Loss ATS
2006: Saints* - Win SU, Loss ATS
2005: Colts* - Loss SU, Loss ATS
2004: Steelers* - Win SU, Loss ATS
2004: Chargers - Loss SU, Loss ATS
2004: Eagles* - Win SU, Win ATS
2002: 49ers - Win SU, Loss ATS

In short, teams resting their starters in Week 17 are 6-7 straight up and 2-11 against the spread in their first playoff game (as long as they're not playing the same team as in Week 17). You may look at that and say, "Well 7-7 straight up isn't so bad!" Wrong. Every single team on that list, save for one, was a favorite. Going 7-7 when you're expected to win isn't exactly a good thing.

Furthermore:

Since 2005, seven teams have won a road playoff game in Round 1. Those seven teams are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in Round 2.

The significance of that in the context of this post is that all the Round 2 games were obviously vs. teams off of a bye.

[NorCal]

Great info, I was leaning on Ari, Bal and staying away from (min-dal) anyway, this seems to fit my line of thinking even though did not have the stats to back it up like you! I still like SD but that has a lot more to do with Sanchez vs Rivers in a big game. I doubt Sanchez will outplay Brady and Rivers in consecutive weeks and after the Jets travel cross country, I think SD will cover and buck the trend you have identified above

[tonyhomo]

thx for posting this lt ,
i'm already on the cards ml and vikings minus the spread (lock of the decade)

[bighank33]

i agree 100% Not so sure the away teams win, but they cover

[jackpot269]

Thanks for the info LT

[INVEGA MAN]

Thanks for the info