[Dark Horse]

The AFC race after Week 16:

CLINCHED: ... W-L ... Next week...

Indianapolis ... 14-1 ... at Buffalo

San Diego ... 12-3 ... Washington

New England ... 10-5 ... at Houston

Cincinnati ... 10-5 ... at N.Y. Jets

WILD CARDS:

N.Y. Jets ... 8-7 ... Cincinnati

Baltimore ... 8-7 ... at Oakland

CHASING:

Denver ... 8-7 ... Kansas City

Pittsburgh ... 8-7 ... at Miami

Houston ... 8-7 ... New England

LONGSHOTS:

Miami ... 7-8 ... Pittsburgh

Jacksonville ... 7-8 ... at Cleveland




Win and they're in: N.Y. Jets and Baltimore

[Dark Horse]

Kickoff time can factor in. But here only does in a positive way. None of these teams are eliminated before their games kick off...

early games:
PIT @ MIA - both must win
NE @ HOU - HOU must win, NE may rest starters

afternoon games:
KC @ DEN - DEN must win; Matt Cassel against his former OC.
BAL @ OAK - BAL must win;

night game:
CIN @ NYJ - NYJ must win; CIN may rest starters

JAX still has an outside shot, I think, but that hasn't been factored into the line. They're 3 pt RD's at CLE. The other lines clearly reflect the above scenarios.

[PAULYPOKER]

correct except this is the correct order for the chasers

CHASING:

Houston ... 8-7 ... New England

Pittsburgh ... 8-7 ... at Miami

Denver ... 8-7 ... Kansas City

[PAULYPOKER]

Mark My Words: Denver will beat KC and finish 9-7; Jets will lose to Bengals and drop out of playoff race (8-8); and Ravens will smash Raiders 26-0 and lock up the #5 seed. Denver will get the # 6 seed. Other Games: New England beats Texans next week and Miami always plays Steelers tough....

Denver is chasing if Pitt wins they finish ahead of Broncos no matter what they do

[Dark Horse]

I read that Denver is in if they win, and either BAL or NYJ loses.

[PAULYPOKER]

1.pittsburgh beat denver this year so that eliminates denver if they stay tied

2.houston&pitt did not play but houston has better conference record so if they stay tied houston wins that battle

3. now if pitt loses I don't know what happens between HOU&DEN cause I did not look into them 2 teams

[Dark Horse]

Yes, I misread.

The Broncos will earn a wild-card playoff spot if they beat Kansas City next week in Denver and two of three teams lose: the N.Y. Jets, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Read more: http://www.denverpost.com/breakingne...#ixzz0ayLQgNOw

Some more detail:

* Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-8): The Steelers are fighting for a wildcard spot in the AFC, but the Dolphins are practically eliminated from contention. With a win, the Steelers need help to make the playoffs. Their best way of getting in would be if the following three things happen: (1) Pittsburgh wins, (2) Houston loses to New England, and (3) either Baltimore or the Jets lose their games.

A lot is riding on what the Texans do next week, go Matt Schaub! There is an alternate scenario where Pittsburgh and Houston can both make it, but Denver, Baltimore, and the Jets would all have to lose. Miami, according to NBC, can get in if everyone else loses basically, and even then I don't see how they get in (but I guess they would). That's a bonus in the sense that Miami has something to fight for against Pittsburgh.
* New England Patriots (10-5) vs. Houston Texans (8-7): Both of these teams have something to play for, but more so the Texans. Houston doesn't control their own destiny, but with some help there are a few scenarios that are beneficial to them. The Patriots will be fighting for the No. 3 seed, which creates the potential for them holding an extra home game down the road in the playoffs over a fourth seed.
* Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (10-5): First and foremost, this game will determine the winner of the NFC East, so you'd better bet that both teams will be giving 110%. If the Vikings lose to the Bears on Monday, there is also a slim chance that the Eagles will be in contention for a first-round bye.
* Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) vs. Cleveland Browns (4-11): What? Our game still has meaning? Technically, but not realistically. The only way the Jaguars can make the postseason is if they beat us and all five of the following teams lose: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Denver, Houston, and the NY Jets. Fat chance, but let's end the Jaguars' hopes early anyway.
* Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) vs. New York Jets (8-7): When your game has meaning in Week 17, "You...Get...FLEXED." It was just announced that this game was moved to 8:20 PM on Sunday Night and will be the final game played in the regular season. The Bengals will already know heading into the game whether they can get the third seed or not depending on what the Patriots do. For the Jets, it's simple. If they win, they are IN.

The Jets "control their own destiny" toward becoming the fifth seed. I'd take the Jets in the playoffs over the Steelers and Ravens, but I also wouldn't enjoy seeing Braylon Edwards in the postseason. Plus, I don't see the Jets being competitive enough for the playoffs.
* New Orleans Saints (13-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (7-8): If the Vikings win their final two games and the Saints go on to lose their third straight game to close out the regular season, New Orleans would have a first-round bye but only the No. 2 seed, thus losing homefield advantage.
* New York Giants (8-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (11-3): The Giants are eliminated and have no one to blame but themselves. The Vikings, depending on what the Saints do, could have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
* Baltimore Ravens (8-7) vs. Oakland Raiders (5-10): Like the Jets, if the Ravens win, they are IN, and therefore "control their own destiny." The Raiders didn't play well against us, but after they've done well against teams like the Eagles and Broncos during the season, you never know. It's just hard to believe the Ravens defense will fall to Charlie Frye, JaMarcus Russell, or J.P. Losman. Maybe if Bruce Gradkowski comes back, they'll have a chance.
* Kansas City Chiefs (3-11) vs. Denver Broncos (8-7): The Broncos have blown it, plain and simple. Between all the teams competing for a wildcard spot though, they might be the best of the bunch when they are clicking on all cylinders. Their chances of making the playoffs are probably equal to the chances of the Steelers, but the fact remains that they still need help to get back in.
* Green Bay Packers (10-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-5): The Cardinals could move up to the No. 3 seed with a win and a Eagles loss (they currently hold the No. 4 seed). The Packers, meanwhile are trying to secure the No. 5 seed. Right now, they hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys since they beat them earlier this season. But, if the Eagles slip to a wildcard spot, I don't know if the Packers would be forced into the fifth or sixth seeds.

[PAULYPOKER]

actually if pitt gets knocked out I'm rooting for houston cause I have $10 future to win $3,500&$10 on Pitt. to win $700 superbowl for both that is

[slacker00]

I like NE even if Hoyer plays most of the game. I can't see Moats having the same ground success vs. NE, and Houston has proven time and again they can't produce wins in vital games.......NE + 7.

I was thinking about this game too.

I think Belichik is too much of a nit to treat this as a bye week. We saw how the Colts run things, but the Pats do it the opposite way. I do think Brady sits for at least half the game, but we saw last year how a backup can step in and win games for the Pats. Also, Pats are a team that's more about scheme than talent. Whereas the Colts depend exclusively on Manning. The Pats can put up a fight even with the B-team playing.

Thing is, I think the Texans are looking very sharp right now. They will certainly be playing for their shot at a playoff spot, not to mention the first winning season in franchise history. Lots of emerging players playing for pride, if nothing else. Kubiak certainly doesn't want his 3rd straight 8-8 season which may put his job in jeopardy.

So, I'm still not locked in on this one, but I might take still take the points, maybe try for a middle or something. I've still gotta set up some playoff parlays and see where this game falls in the scheme of things.

[Dark Horse]

Let's try to keep updates here with news of teams planning to sit their starters, etc. In the late game the NYJ could be handed their second W in a row if the Bengals sit theirs. How lucky can they be?

[PAULYPOKER]

Let's try to keep updates here with news of teams planning to sit their starters, etc. In the late game the NYJ could be handed their second W in a row if the Bengals sit theirs. How lucky can they be?

Done I'll update on Steelers&Dolphins game since I have three of my own threads that are all Steelers

[PAULYPOKER]

Here's my thoughts on Pats game if they are resting starters.
we are talking Belichik here not Caldwell the puppet. Belichik hates to lose at anything and has no sympathy for losers meaning who ever plays for him does well I don't care if they just came out of a dumpster and suited up they will give their all for Belichik

[slacker00]

Here's my thoughts on Pats game if they are resting starters.
we are talking Belichik here not Caldwell the puppet. Belichik hates to lose at anything and has no sympathy for losers meaning who ever plays for him does well I don't care if they just came out of a dumpster and suited up they will give their all for Belichik

NOPE!!!

I've been thinking this one over, the Pats are laying down. The players are too beat up to piss around in a meaningless game. Plus, the Texans were supposed to be my suprise team this year, so I'm kinda sticking with them even though I thought they would make more noise this year. Plus, the Texans need to treat this as a playoff game because if the Ravens or Jets lose, they can get in.

So, bet the Pats 1H, but take the Texans for the full game.

[PAULYPOKER]

WE SHALL SEE slacker00

[Dark Horse]

Interesting link.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

[Dark Horse]

Heritage kindly includes the playoff picture:

Sun 1/3 300 NFL - WEEK 17
7:00AM (PST) 301 Sunday, January 3rd
Sun 1/3 305 Jacksonville Jaguars
+1½ -107

Over 37½ -107

10:00AM (PST) 306 Cleveland Browns
-1½ -107

Under 37½ -107

* Game Note: (UNOFFICIAL INJURY REPORT) (QB) David Garrard is upgraded to probable Sunday vs Cleveland. Jacksonville - Needs a win and a loss by Houston, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Denver and Baltimore for a Wild Card spot.
Cleveland - Eliminated from playoffs.
Sun 1/3 307 Philadelphia Eagles
+3 -107

Over 47 -107

1:15PM (PST) 308 Dallas Cowboys
-3 -107

Under 47 -107

* Game Note: TIME CHANGE.... Philadelphia - Has earned a playoff spot. Needs a win to win NFC East Division and a first round bye.
Dallas - Has earned a playoff spot. Needs a win to win NFC East Division.
Sun 1/3 309 Chicago Bears
-3 -117

Over 45 -107

10:00AM (PST) 310 Detroit Lions
+3 +103

Under 45 -107

* Game Note: Chicago - Eliminated from playoffs.
Detroit - Eliminated from playoffs
Sun 1/3 311 New England Patriots
+8 -107

Over 46 -107

10:00AM (PST) 312 Houston Texans
-8 -107

Under 46 -107

* Game Note: New England - Has clinched the AFC East Division and a first round home game. May rest or limit playing time for starters.
Houston - Needs a win and a loss by 2 of 3 teams, NY Jets, Baltimore, Denver to earn a wild card.
Sun 1/3 315 New York Giants
+9 -107

Over 47½ -107

10:00AM (PST) 316 Minnesota Vikings
-9 -107

Under 47½ -107

* Game Note: (UNOFFICIAL INJURY REPORT) (RB) Brandon Jacobs is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Minnesota. NY Giants - Eliminated from playoffs.
Minnesota - Has clinched NFC North Division. Can clinch a first round bye with a win and a Philadelphia loss or tie, or with a tie and a Philadelphia loss.
Sun 1/3 317 Cincinnati Bengals
+10 -107

Over 35 -107

5:25PM (PST) 318 New York Jets
-10 -107

Under 35 -107

* Game Note: [NBC]... TIME CHANGE... Cincinnati - Has clinched AFC North Division and a first round home playoff game. May rest or limit playing time for starters.
NY Jets - Needs a win to earn a wild card spot.
Sun 1/3 319 San Francisco 49ers
-7 -107

Over 40½ -107

10:00AM (PST) 320 St Louis Rams
+7 -107

Under 40½ -107

* Game Note: (UNOFFICIAL INJURY REPORT) (RB) Steven Jackson is upgraded to probable Sunday vs San Francisco. San Francisco - Eliminated from playoffs.
St Louis - Eliminated from playoffs.
Sun 1/3 321 Atlanta Falcons
-2½ -107

Over 41½ -107

10:00AM (PST) 322 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+2½ -107

Under 41½ -107

* Game Note: Atlanta - Eliminated from playoffs.
Tampa Bay - Eliminated from playoffs.
Sun 1/3 323 Green Bay Packers
+3 +108

Over 44 -107

1:15PM (PST) 324 Arizona Cardinals
-3 -122

Under 44 -107

* Game Note: Green Bay - Has earned a wild card spot. May rest or limit playing time for starters.
Arizona - Has clinched the NFC West Division and a first round home playoff game. Can clinch the #2 seed and a 1st round bye with a win combined with Minnesota and Philadelphia losses. May rest or limit playing time for starters.
Sun 1/3 325 Kansas City Chiefs
+13 -107

Over 38 -107

1:15PM (PST) 326 Denver Broncos
-13 -107

Under 38 -107

* Game Note: Kansas City - Eliminated from playoffs.
Denver - Needs a win and a loss by 2 of 3 teams NY Jets, Baltimore, Pittsburgh to earn a wild card
Sun 1/3 327 Baltimore Ravens
-10½ -107

Over 38 -107

1:15PM (PST) 328 Oakland Raiders
+10½ -107

Under 38 -107

* Game Note: Baltimore - Needs a win to earn a wild card spot.
Oakland - Eliminated from playoffs.
Sun 1/3 329 Washington Redskins
+4 -107

Over 39 -107

1:15PM (PST) 330 San Diego Chargers
-4 -107

Under 39 -107

* Game Note: Washington - Eliminated from playoffs.
San Diego - Has clinched the AFC West Division and a first round bye. May rest or limited playing time for starters.
Sun 1/3 331 Tennessee Titans
-4 -107

Over 44 -107

1:15PM (PST) 332 Seattle Seahawks
+4 -107

Under 44 -107

* Game Note: Tennessee - Eliminated from playoffs.
Seattle - Eliminated from playoffs.

[Jag8917]

Mark My Words: Denver will beat KC and finish 9-7; Jets will lose to Bengals and drop out of playoff race (8-8); and Ravens will smash Raiders 26-0 and lock up the #5 seed. Denver will get the # 6 seed.

Other Games: New England beats Texans next week and Miami always plays Steelers tough....

Jets are always good for a collapse. But New England is 2-5 this year on the road...

[PAULYPOKER]

Jets are always good for a collapse. But New England is 2-5 this year on the road...

December 30 Boston Herald Defense contains high confidence level

With his finger on the pulse of his players, Patriots defensive coordinator Dean Pees has no trouble gauging the unit's mindset after three stellar performances. "Guys are gaining some confidence back," Pees said yesterday. "I think they lost it a little bit there midway in the season. We had a couple rough goes at it and anytime that happens your confidence gets a little bit down. Once you start having some success, that confidence grows." The defense has allowed 27 points over the past three games, fewer than any other team in that span. The 888 yards allowed is better than all but two teams over the past three weeks. The unit received a boost from captain and linebacker Jerod Mayo, who ..."

December 30 Boston Globe They looked coordinated on offense


"Bill O'Brien wears a headset and carries a play sheet on Patriots game days. He
has the same title, quarterbacks coach, that Josh McDaniels had in his one-year apprenticeship before officially replacing Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator in 2006. He's the one Tom Brady consults with between plays, and the one who sends substitutes in and out of the game. Only he doesn't have the coordinator title."