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  1. 12-18-09 09:16 PM #1
    swisher33
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    Default ***Jets have gone conservative. Fade them***

    The Jets have gone conservative as of late. Conservative is not a good strategy unless you have a monstrous defense and Jerome Bettis.

    They have gone 3-2 in the past 5 games against horrible teams with their new playing style.

    They blewout the 1-11 Bucs, and beat a 4-6 and 4-7 team. They lost to an average jaguars squad and got blown out by the Patriots (who haven't won since then).

    Their QB will be playing below 100% so the conservative play will continue.

    They are facing a Atlanta team who are average at 6-7. Atlanta has been inconsistent but has weapons.

    Both teams are playing comparably bad football. But the moneyline is at about +200 for Atlanta. At +200, you only need to hit 33.33% of your bets to break even. My system gives the Falcons about a 45% chance of winning. That is 12% over the break even number. That is better than hitting 60% on a sides pick.


    Take Atlanta at +200. Glad to hear all thoughts.
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  2. 12-18-09 10:00 PM #2
    slacker00
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    Great writeup. Atlanta playing tough despite the injuries. The second line players aren't that terrible. As the starters recover, look out.
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  3. 12-18-09 10:11 PM #3
    LLXC
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    I like the Under in this matchup.
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  4. 12-18-09 10:28 PM #4
    Better2Belucky
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    Quote Originally Posted by swisher33 View Post
    The Jets have gone conservative as of late. Conservative is not a good strategy unless you have a monstrous defense and Jerome Bettis.

    They have gone 3-2 in the past 5 games against horrible teams with their new playing style.

    They blewout the 1-11 Bucs, and beat a 4-6 and 4-7 team. They lost to an average jaguars squad and got blown out by the Patriots (who haven't won since then).

    Their QB will be playing below 100% so the conservative play will continue.

    They are facing a Atlanta team who are average at 6-7. Atlanta has been inconsistent but has weapons.

    Both teams are playing comparably bad football. But the moneyline is at about +200 for Atlanta. At +200, you only need to hit 33.33% of your bets to break even. My system gives the Falcons about a 45% chance of winning. That is 12% over the break even number. That is better than hitting 60% on a sides pick.


    Take Atlanta at +200. Glad to hear all thoughts.

    Like you said.... Inconsistent. If the Falcons of the beginning of the season show up the Jets are done. If the Falcons team doesnt feel like playing (like many of their games seemed like to me) then they lose. It is too much of a gamble to gamble on this game. I would take a pass on it.
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  5. 12-18-09 11:21 PM #5
    swisher33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Better2Belucky View Post
    It is too much of a gamble to gamble on this game. I would take a pass on it.
    I completely agree with you. It's a coin flip for who is going to show up. The money line is saying Atlanta wins 33% of the time. That's the big discrepancy.
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  6. 12-20-09 10:14 AM #6
    swisher33
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    The moneyline is at +260!

    28% is the break even point!
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  7. 12-20-09 10:15 AM #7
    wallyjones2009
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    yeah
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  8. 12-20-09 10:18 AM #8
    GiveMeaBJ
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    Don't forget Sanchez is a cali boy and hasn't played in anything as cold as today. Plus the wind is supposed to pick up, Giants Stadium toughest place in the NFL to judge the wind when kicking or throwing. We saw what Eli did early in his career and still sometimes to this game. Falcons +7 is the bet.
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  9. 12-20-09 10:18 AM #9
    GiveMeaBJ
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    Oh and Turners playing for sure, Ryan questionable.
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  10. 12-20-09 10:22 AM #10
    2daBank
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    the way they are playing is a blueprint on how to win late in the year and in the playoffs. great defense limited mistakes good special teams and excellent run gm. tell me how any of these things are reasons to fade them?
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  11. 12-20-09 10:27 AM #11
    swisher33
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    the way they are playing is a blueprint on how to win late in the year and in the playoffs. great defense limited mistakes good special teams and excellent run gm. tell me how any of these things are reasons to fade them?

    We can debate over what style of play is best, but all you need to know is they have played below mediocre while changing to this playing style.
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  12. 12-20-09 10:31 AM #12
    2daBank
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    they have done what it takes to win and atl wishes they played mediocre...not saying they can win in playoffs sanchez has to get better but they are exceptional at d and running ball in a league with lot of mediocre teams it is saying a lot if you have a few aspects of the gm that you excel in
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  13. 12-20-09 10:32 AM #13
    2daBank
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    swisher33...ill take jets ml my 100 points to your 66...what ya say?
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  14. 12-20-09 10:37 AM #14
    2daBank
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    ill even go jets-3 my 100 to your 66 points...clocks ticking im bout to be gone for the day.holla
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  15. 12-20-09 11:14 AM #15
    pattymayo
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    Falcons were officially eliminated from the playoffs with Dallas win last night... You really think Chris Redman isgoing to pick apart this Jets defense? Roddy White is gonna get shut down by Revis, Falcons have yet to play in the cold this year. We got hit with a huge snowstorm almost a foot of snow in the NJ/NY area, Jets love this weather. Sanchez will throw less than 20 times today Jets will run run run.

    Jets win today boys
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  16. 12-20-09 11:16 AM #16
    sLim901
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    they have gone conservative cuz the sanchize is exposed...if the game rests on his arm, they will LOSE
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  17. 12-20-09 11:18 AM #17
    swisher33
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    2daBank and I have made a wager of Jets -3 his 112 to my 66.
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  18. 12-20-09 11:18 AM #18
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by sLim901 View Post
    they have gone conservative cuz the sanchize is exposed...if the game rests on his arm, they will LOSE
    tru but there is no reason they dont run for 150 have a few special team plays and big plays on defense
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  19. 12-20-09 11:20 AM #19
    pattymayo
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    the game won't rest on Sanchez arm he will have no chance to blow the game for the Jets. He will hardly pass downfield, Jets defense will force turnovers and give him a nice cushion to work with. Falcons are toast boys
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  20. 12-20-09 11:25 AM #20
    pattymayo
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    Just saw that Ryan and Turner are both starting today... still don't think it makes much of a difference. Both will be rusty
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  21. 12-20-09 03:06 PM #21
    swisher33
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    Atlanta won by 3.
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  22. 12-20-09 03:09 PM #22
    2daBank
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    fuk that game went exactly how i capped it w/o all the jets fukin missed/botched fgs what a joke. they dominated that game oh well at least the under was easy money. congrats lucky atl backers
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