Cowboys, Saints in Saturday Night Special
Cowboys, Saints in Saturday Night Special
The first Saturday game on the NFL schedule is huge with the Dallas Cowboys heading to New Orleans to face the unbeaten Saints. Tony Romo and the 'Boys have dropped two straight and are a pedestrian 3-3 on away from Jerry Jones' new playground. Meanwhile the Saints lead the league in NFL in scoring, over 75 points ahead of the next club. Don't expect Sean Payton to throttle back one bit in this one.
The undefeated New Orleans Saints are the toast of the NFL – you’re toast if you bet on them.
That’s the way it’s been for almost two months now. The Saints are 2-5 ATS since Week 8, giving handfuls of money back to the books after New Orleans started the 2009 campaign by covering six in a row.
The expectations of the betting public are inflated with every step toward that perfect 16-0 season, just as they were with the 2007 New England Patriots, who went 8-0 ATS before finishing 2-6 ATS and then dropping the cash in all three of their playoff games.
The Saints have a tough matchup on their hands on Saturday night (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network) at the Superdome, as the 8-5 Dallas Cowboys (6-7 ATS) pay a neighborly visit. The Cowboys are trying to shake off their recent legacy of poor late-season play; after back-to-back upsets by the Giants (+1) and Chargers (+3½), Dallas is 5-12 SU and 3-13-1 ATS in December since Tony Romo took over as starting quarterback.
The betting odds suggest it’ll be another tough December day for the Cowboys. They opened as 7-point underdogs (+260 on the moneyline) with a sky-high total of 53 points. That total is likely to go up as the public continues to pound the OVER with New Orleans, despite cashing in just once in the last four games.
Saints QB Drew Brees did his job during those four weeks with 13 TD throws and just one pick, but this year’s improvements on defense kept the team sliding below those generous totals.
Over on the Dallas sideline, tougher competition can be blamed for the UNDER going on a 5-1 run. The ‘Boys failed to score anything more than 24 points in a game during that span, and they’ve loosened their grip on a playoff spot by going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five outings.
The losses to the Giants and Chargers we’ve already mentioned; the third was in Week 10 against the Packers (+3), owners of the most efficient defense in the NFL.
Just don’t blame Romo. He’s put together three straight high-quality performances with seven TD passes and zero interceptions, exceeding the 110.0 passer mark in each game. Instead, credit New York (2.4 yards per carry) and San Diego (3.4 yards) for stuffing Marion Barber, the top Dallas tailback. It’s been six games since Barber scored a touchdown – again, that’s six games with the UNDER at 5-1.
The Dallas defense (already a disappointing No. 19 on the efficiency charts) got a scare Sunday when linebacker DeMarcus Ware was carted off the field with a strained neck and taken to hospital. Early indications from “sources” were that Ware would miss two weeks, but the latest reports at press time said Ware could still face the Saints, depending on whether or not he practiced Tuesday.
This is obviously worth keeping an eye on; Ware has nine sacks this season, and his absence would certainly harm a team already missing safeties Ken Hamlin (ankle) and Pat Watkins (knee). You can’t stop New Orleans without a pass rush and some help downfield.
The Saints also have some injury concerns on defense, specifically in the secondary, where top cornerback Jabari Greer (groin) has been out since Week 9 and fellow starting CB Tracy Porter (knee) has missed four games. Romo could take advantage if either or both men cannot play Saturday.
The Saints’ defensive line is average at best, aside from Will Smith (10 sacks) coming in off the right end, and the Cowboys’ offensive line has allowed a respectable six sacks over the past four games. Maybe all these injuries on defense will be enough for the 'over' to cash in after all.
One other important fact to consider for Saturday’s matchup: The Saints will finish first in the NFC South, but they still need a victory to clinch home-field advantage all the way to Super Bowl XLIV in Miami. They won’t be resting their starters just yet.
Dallas holds down the second NFC Wild Card, one game ahead of the Giants. There’s no better insurance for handicappers than a little motivation in a late-season game.
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Originally Posted by KKoz9
That came from Tony Dungy! I respect his opinion!
