December 2, 2009 By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
As we head into December, only five weeks remain in the NFL regular season. There are plenty of playoff spots up for grabs in each conference, as the lines are tightening up. Following a 9-1 run the previous two weeks in the NFL Handicapping Challenge, I took a step back last week with a 2-3 ledger. It's time to bounce back, as we have a full Sunday of action following the Thursday night matchup between the Jets and Bills in Toronto. 1) Titans (+6 ½) at Colts - 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee began the season as a complete train-wreck, dropping its first six games. Since Jeff Fisher donned the Peyton Manning jersey following the Titans' bye week, Tennessee can't lose, winning five straight. It also helps that Vince Young stabilized a struggling offense, capping it off with a 387-yard performance in a comeback victory over the Cardinals.
The Colts, meanwhile, continue to stay unbeaten, as Indianapolis rallied past Houston to improve to 11-0. The Titans have competed well against the Colts, as Tennessee has covered five of the last seven meetings. The Young factor is huge, as the Titans are a perfect 4-0 ATS when he has started against the Colts in his career, with the four games decided by a combined 14 points.
Both teams are obviously on fire, but the Colts have had problems slowing down Young in the past, and taking the points is the way to go. Final score: Colts 20, Titans 17 2) Bucs (+6 ½) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay has played inspired football the last month, covering three of four games, despite a 1-10 record. The Bucs beat the Packers four weeks ago, and have lost two games in the final minute at Miami and Atlanta.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are clearly a team in turmoil, as Carolina is suffering through a 4-7 season. Erratic Jake Delhomme is likely out this week after breaking a finger on his throwing hand. It didn't help that the embattled Panthers quarterback tossed four interceptions in Sunday's 17-6 loss to the Jets.
Carolina held off Tampa Bay, 28-21, with a last-minute touchdown in Week 6. The Bucs played without Josh Freeman that week, as Josh Johnson started at QB for Tampa Bay. It's tough to back the Panthers in this spot, as the Bucs have been playing better the last few weeks, in spite of not being able to finish games off. Final score: Bucs 21, Panthers 16 3) Texans (+1 ½) at Jaguars - 1:00 PM EST
This is a pseudo-playoff game for these AFC South rivals, as Houston tries to stop a three-game slide. The Jags come into this contest at 6-5, but limp back home following a 20-3 setback at San Francisco. Each of Jacksonville's last four wins has come by three points or less, all against below .500 competition.
The Texans have thrown away two games the last two weeks against the Titans and Colts at home, while looking to avenge a 31-24 defeat to Jacksonville back in Week 3. Houston is 4-1 ATS on the road, while picking up victories at Tennessee and Cincinnati this season. Since 2005, the Texans are 6-3 ATS against the Jaguars, even though four of those covers came as underdogs of at least 6 ½ points. Regardless, the Texans have proved more and are several plays away from being a legit Wild Card team. Final score: Texans 28, Jaguars 23 4) Bears (-8 ½) vs. Rams - 1:00 PM EST Lovie Smith's days may be numbered in the Windy City, but this is a good spot to back the Bears. Chicago has bullied bad teams, beating up Detroit and Cleveland convincingly at home as substantial favorites. The Rams fit the profile of a very bad team, coming in at 1-10.
St. Louis allowed Seattle to pick up its first road victory of the season this past Sunday, as the Seahawks won by ten. The Rams have played one game away from St. Louis since October 25, grabbing their lone win of 2009 at Detroit. The Rams are averaging 8.8 ppg on the road, already getting shut out twice at Seattle and San Francisco.
The Bears won't make the playoffs, but after a running a rough gauntlet against Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Arizona, this seems like a place where Chicago comes out and pounds St. Louis. Final score: Bears 30, Rams 10 5) Seahawks (PK) vs. 49ers - 4:15 PM EST
Seattle is awful on the road, even though the Seahawks picked up a win at St. Louis on Sunday. At home is a different story for Jim Mora's team, who is 3-2 at Qwest Field, with all three victories by double-digits. The 49ers have lost four of five on the road, even though each defeat has come by less than a touchdown.
San Francisco beat Seattle at Candlestick Park, 23-10, back in Week 2. Matt Hasselbeck didn't finish that contest, as the Seahawks' quarterback suffered a rib injury just before halftime. The Niners own a solid 7-2-2 ATS mark this season, but the Seahawks will welcome the fact they return to the Pacific Northwest for the first time in a month. Final score: Seahawks 28, Niners 17
Not sure if I'm QB'ing the I'd lay more than a TD and take the Bears. They are very unimpressive. Rams are competitive fairly often and I think they can keep it within 7.
5 match ups for week 13
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