Week 12 picks and thoughts
Short post this week. I've been away most of the week, limiting my opportunity to look into the games, and now today I'm feeling ill and have been sleeping on and off all day. Yuk. My brain doesn't feel like it's firing on all cylinders so I hope I can avoid disaster with this small selection:
Indianapolis @ Houston
Neither team runs the ball well. The Texans haven't had a particularly good season in getting after the quarterback, but they did sack Peyton twice in the recent meeting at Indy. My ultra-secret stats say the Colts are over-rated on defense, but I was still holding off backing Houston until I had a look over the box score from that week 9 game. The Texans missed a last-second field goal to tie it up, and outgained Indy. With home advantage in a must-must-must win spot, I'll take Schaub and co for a smallish bet. Mystic Limey forsees: IND 24 - 27 HOU
Houston +3.5 for 4 units
Chicago @ Minnesota
Bad though the Bears have mostly been, I was a little surprised to see such a big spread. I like the Vikings a lot but they generally haven't been beating half-decent teams by large margins. I have a couple of red flags on Minnesota giving up so many points here; my arcane statistical measures tell me they are over-rated in offensive scoring, and teams have been able to throw on them if they can keep their quarterbacks upright - and Cutler has actually taken fewer sacks than Favre while dropping back far more often. I give the Bears a real shot of keeping this very tight. Mystic Limey forsees: CHI 23 - 24 MIN
Chicago +11 for 4 units
Jackonville @ San Francisco
I've been opposing the 49ers fairly regularly, considering them an over-rated team on the whole. While I can't shake that feeling off, I think this is a match-up that suits them. It's a game that looks likely to be really tough in the trenches, so who can break it open in the air? The Niners have defended the pass really well this season despite facing a murders' row of quarterbacks including Warner, Favre, Ryan, Schaub, Manning and Rodgers. I give them the edge here against a Jacksonville team making one of the longest trips in the NFL.
Mystic Limey forsees: JAX 16 - 23 SF
San Francisco -3 for 4 units
New England @ New Orleans
These teams appear very well-matched and all set for a mouth-watering 'clash of the titans'. I'm not usually big on betting such games, but have been surprised to see the opening line of Saints -3 move the opposite way to my expectations. I think this is a good spot for New Orleans. For the Patriots, this is a non-conference road trip sandwiched between two divisional games. Dome advantage figures to be big for the Saints, with rampant noise and most likely a crucial 'home' call or two from the officials. In a game where one or two drive-extending or drive-killing plays should make the difference, that's enough for me.
Mystic Limey forsees: NE 27 - 34 NO
New Orleans -2 for 7 units
I have a couple more games ony my radar but this might be it for this weekend, I'm too tired to think any more.
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Originally Posted by Saluki09
