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  1. #1

    Default Week 10: 2 Key Picks for Teasers

    Thoughts on Teasers: If you can pick up 2 solid "core" picks, you work off those and then set up 2-3 other combos utilizing those picks. Obviously if the core picks lose, then your teasers are killed, so you need to have a high level of confidence that they'll pull through. Your edge obviously is twofold: (1) You tease to get the point spread wider, thus increasing your chances of success (and the points are generally better spent going on actual spreads, not the Over/unders); and (2) the odds you get are increased.
    If utilized properly, I think 4-5 team teasers are very doable, and have value in the right spots.
    Thus my 2 picks:

    1. Denver -3 Teased 6 points to +3. Dont tease past the 0 right? I find exception here, #1 because this line is off, and should be closer to -5.5 (so your getting more bang for your buck), and #2 because this will likely be a low scoring game. Low scoring games tend to favor the underdog. Denver, becoming an "underdog" and having +3 buffer gives them the edge. But lets be honest, Denver's not losing this game anyway.
    2. Patriots +3 Teased 6 points to 9. Again, I think the line should be -3 to start, but its a nice line because it will induce bets on both sides. Thus your again getting additional value past the +6 points. I took Patriots to win outright in Indy this week, and if they lose it will be a close one. +9 is a gift.

    Your additional selections after this is up to you, I've played with Ravens -5, Saints -8 and have actually considered the Cards/Seattle game as well. This is a key game for both teams, and Seattle is treating it as a divisional "must win," so be mindful if you choose this game. Best of Luck on your additional selections.

    -Parli

  2. #2

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    Teasing through the 0 is for suckers.

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by urge2kill View Post
    Teasing through the 0 is for suckers.
    What is the reasoning behind this? Just curious. I sometimes like to tease a team that i am very confident will win the game even if they are a small favorite thus teasing through the 0.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by urge2kill View Post
    Teasing through the 0 is for suckers.
    I agree as a general rule you shouldn't tease through the 0 but I don't believe its one you must follow every time. Like I said upfront there's mitigating factors: (1) the value is more than just 3 points for Denver (it may as well be closer to 6); and (2) this will likely be a low-scoring game, which favors an underdog. Here, Denver becomes an underdog once we get +3 on our side. So we're teasing 6 points but it feels more like 9.

    Don't make picks in a vacuum.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by S.K.M. View Post
    What is the reasoning behind this? Just curious. I sometimes like to tease a team that i am very confident will win the game even if they are a small favorite thus teasing through the 0.
    You're paying for a point, the 0, that is pretty much worthless.

  6. #6

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    This denver-washington game is very fishy to me. your right, the line should be more like den -6 to 7.5 & if you remember earlier in the week the line opened @ -4.5 so its gone down a full pt in favor of Denver, eventhough 83% of the money is on Denver. Makes no sense to me.
    i'm stayin away from this one, theres better gms to bet on

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