[Totolover1409]

Take Skins +3.5 against Denver.

[daneblazer]

I wouldn't take it any lower than 3.5. Though I'm not sure how Washington is going to score...

[Abrcrom12]

Yup, I will.
Betting on the Skins is monetary suicide.

[2daBank]

this line is crazy! there no dam way i could take the skins i understand y you would but i dont got the sack for that 1(and thats saying alot) GL THOUGH

[Serbone]

Yes, disagree! BIG!

Denver, off the loss, is the play. They will be fired up.

Denver is solid though not spectacular, no big weaknesses. Solid "D", good OL, decent running game, good WR's, adequate QB.

Skins have good "D" but worn down. HUGE problem is that their OL is in shambles, was their weakness to begin with, and now have several injuries. QB Campbell is a stiff, cannot rescue them, will be a free agent after this year, ADIOS! Team is in turmoil: Coach Zorn is lame duck.

Denver has also played a MUCH superior schedule, not even close, take Broncos - 4!

[cgars1]

Under

[daneblazer]

Denver has gotten stomped two weeks in a row. Now they have to travel back across country on a short week. Wouldn't surprise me at all if this is a close game and Denver won by 3.

[Abrcrom12]

You guys are over thinking this way too much.
Broncs roll here.

I'm from the Washington area and even the home team fans boo the Skins. They are horrible. Plain and simple.
The Skins will not put up many, if any, points this game.

Stop over thinking this. The books are playing with your head.

[PRC]

Anyone have reasoning on why the line is so low?

[Indecent]

I have this in my reading notes, although I can't find the source.. if you're out there, I'm trying to give you credit.

(paraphrase)
A line of 3.5 is an endorsement for the favorite as the books tried to put out a line for people to bet the underdog and it's not happening or it would move down to the key number of 3. A line of 3.5 that stays means the "real" number is higher, more like 4-6.

[Afrot69]

interesting play

[extra243]

Denver lost to 2 good teams...Their offences play calling is WAY too limited...I believe they will open it up this game.

Picking Denver....-3.5 vs skins is a joke!

[PAPSMEAR]

skins are possibly the worst team in the nfl...my advice keep your money in your pocket...betting bad teams = bad losses...denver will take this...-3.5 is a gift ...line should be closer to double figures here

[Pride>UFC]

redskins have the worst offense ever...20-10 denver

[antkim003]

the line is probably low because denver has lost ATS the last two weeks.

[renojoe]

MATCHUP:

qb: campbell vs orton orton
rb: betts vs i forget his name denver rb
wr: ... denver definitely no doubt
st: randle el? vs eddie royal royal
k: suisham vs their k denver again
homefield? skins
coach not zorn
defense even

*** so it appears pretty obvious who the play is....

3 units take the +3.5 and the Redskins

[Smogs]

There must be better bets this weekend? the books will have this pretty sharp

[Lockitup1x]

Denver has scored 1 offensive TD in two weeks and the Bronco O line and run game look weak. Washington has a good pass D and are playing at home. Look for the Broncos to be well prepared offensively (they will take everything underneath all day long) which is all it will take to beat a Redskins team that can't find a way to score. Broncos 24 Redskins 13.

[Sharkl11]

Don't post if you have no further insight about the game besides just take redskins +3.5 . No rationale, don't fkin post.

[Fizz]

Denver lost two blowout games to the teams in last years AFC Championship game. Washington is nowhere near that caliber.

[watertight]

Originally Posted by PRC

Anyone have reasoning on why the line is so low?

vegas paid off the refs?

[Brewdogmike]

Originally Posted by renojoe

MATCHUP:

st: randle el? vs eddie royal royal

Just a note -- the Skins only bring in Randle El to fair catch. That's pretty much all he does.

[Brewdogmike]

Here's how I see it: Even if you just ignore all of the Redskins' off-field distractions (and you shouldn't but let's say you do), this is a team with a good defense (6th overall) and a horrible, banged-up offense that can't score. Portis is out, Betts is a stop-gap, Rock Cartwright isn't strong or fast enough to run between the tackles even though they keep telling him to try. Campbell is shell-shocked (sacked 5 times in the first half last week, an Atlanta franchise record) and it will only get worse because they've lost another offensive lineman, had to sign a free agent and move one to a different position. Cooley, who is like Campbell's security blanket because he checks off Moss, panics and throws to Cooley before getting sacked -- is out. That means Yoder at TE will get 8-10 catches for four yards each. Yes, the Redskins defense is good, on paper, but they will give up points because the offense will go three and out, over and over again. And on top of that, key players are starting to give up. LaRon Landry isn't even trying to tackle anyone anymore. Albert Haynesworth is a force, but not reliable for the whole game. Bottom line -- Denver's a decent but not great team that has the division lead and a shot at the playoffs; Washington is an awful team, maybe the worst in the NFL, with no motivation, no running game, no passing game. I think the line is this low just to sucker people into betting on Washington.

[Dave ATS]

This line is low because of the short week, they just played a very physical team, they are travelling through the time zones, and it is a 1:00 pm start. They start in a hole. The real line should be about 6 to 7.

[hxn_519]

i think the line is low because the last time they met was in 2005. Just like when the NO Saints played Miami few weeks ago, the line was fairly low because the last meeting was also in 2005.

[drfunkmaster]

denver

[DeluxeLiner]

Reverse Line Movement...over 18k bets on the game, line moved 4.5 to 3.5, 83/17... I wonder which side the heavy money is betting?...

[EastsidaProduct]

I took the Skins at (+3.5). Also, have Cincy (+7) Buffalo (+6.5) Panthers (+1.5) Chiefs (+2) Seattle (+8.5) Philly (+2.5) Green Bay (+3). Carolina, KC, Philly, GB win outright and Seattle loses the game on a last minute touchdown by Kurt.

[slacker00]

Take the Denver ML if you don't want to sweat the FG. Denver is much better, but the short week and travel might be a factor.

[Abrcrom12]

Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner

Reverse Line Movement...over 18k bets on the game, line moved 4.5 to 3.5, 83/17... I wonder which side the heavy money is betting?...

Incorrect statement my friend. That line moved on Tues. morning. There was nowhere near that amount of bets yet, and for the bets that were currently there, over 60% were on the Skins. Sorry, but there was no RLM there.
Not trying to be an ass, just clarifying for others so that they're not mislead.

[Totolover1409]

Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner

Reverse Line Movement...over 18k bets on the game, line moved 4.5 to 3.5, 83/17... I wonder which side the heavy money is betting?...

Exactly. RLM, thats why I think Washington +3.5.

I've been 6-1 with RLM. The only loss was taking the Raiders.

[pimike]

Originally Posted by Brewdogmike

Just a note -- the Skins only bring in Randle El to fair catch. That's pretty much all he does.

[Abrcrom12]

Originally Posted by Totolover1409

Exactly. RLM, thats why I think Washington +3.5. I've been 6-1 with RLM. The only loss was taking the Raiders.

Toto, don't buy into that. The books want you to see RLM even though it isn't there. Please see my post right above yours.

Either way, GL to all.


****Edit: I just checked Bookmaker and they have Den -3 -130. While this is technically RLM, it's very very small RLM. Buying from -3.5 to -3 takes you from -110 to -135, therefore showing RLM of a nickle. Once again, I think the books are playing mind games with everyone.

[urge2kill]

I think Denver should roll, but I'm staying away. Something doesn't seem right.

[Rig]

I'd bet you all my points Denver covers 3
And my soul, I'll throw that in too what the hell