[moodyt2]

Post your thoughts on this Monday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos. Thanks.

[Sekrah]

Ben Roethlisberger vs Kyle Orton.

What do you think?

Ravens just wrote the book on how to beat this Denver D. Steelers have been reading it all week.

[lakerboy]

why is the line only -1.

[Sekrah]

why is the line only -1.

Is this a trick question? Denver are 7-1 and at home.

[lakerboy]

Is this a trick question? Denver are 7-1 and at home.

yes and they are playing the nfl champs who won a afc title game there in the past and arent scared. also pit is coming off a bye. i thought they were 6-1 .

[Serbone]

Pitt got beat bad yardage wise by Minnesota last game, but got two late 4 qtr fluke turnover TD's to cover. They mostly have beaten some bad teams, have not been impressive. They have some DL injuries and starting safety is out, but should otherwise be well rested and strong coming off a bye.

Broncos have played a tougher schedule, finally let up on the road and when they were 6-0, you cannot fault them too much traveling to the east time zone and losing against a desperate Baltimore team. Broncos have exhibited strong "D", "O" has decent OL, running game, and some good WR's. Best is to bet on this year's team, not last years. Not sure who I am going with but there is a good case for Bronco side, at home, Monday nite vs Super Bowl champs, coming off a loss.

[filter15]

Ive been hot today
gotta take the broncos in denver

[2daBank]

the only way i see this gm playing out is dfence dictates on both sides. orten will not be doing much against pit d but is smart enough not to make the bad mistakes be happy to punt and let den d do there thing and keep them in the gm. this is gonna be a defensive battle(bout time on mon nite) lots of big hits and long tough drives ending in fgs. honestly picking the winner seems like to much work in this 1 when i see a 17-13(21-17 at worst) ill take UND40 sit back and enjoy the show. think 1 big play in this gm could be the difference

[moodyt2]

The OVER has won every Monday Night Football game this year. Is this the week to break that streak? Or does Pitt/Den score OVER 40 points?

I personally am leaning toward the OVER at 40 points. I'm thinking of a 24-21 type Final or maybe a 27-14 type game.

[2daBank]

ill take ur 32 points on that moody..u either givin den offence 2 much credit or pit d not enough..4tds most you will see in that gm

[2daBank]

17-13

[moodyt2]

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
TennesseeW 13-10
@ ChicagoL 14-17
@ CincinnatiL 20-23
San DiegoW 38-28
@ DetroitW 28-20
ClevelandW 27-14
MinnesotaW 27-17

Steeler have had 5 games go OVER 40, and 2 games UNDER 40.

[2daBank]

and you think that means what exactly? that its bound to continue? possibly levels itself out? polumalu being hurt may have somthin 2 do with it? if you want to discuss the gm and your thought on it with me thats great but throwin meaningless scores against mostly bad teams to justify why this gm wont b a defensive battle is not worth my time talking about bet your over later you can say dam cant believe neither team got over 20. and by the way that whole mon nite over shit u think u bet every mon over rest of year you will come out ahead?

[moodyt2]

Denvers first 5 games have gone UNDER 40. and only 1 of 7 games have gone OVER 40.

[lakerboy]

the dallas and panthers game didnt go over on mnf and i believe there is 1 other as well

[2daBank]

these are 2 teams that win with dfence sure pit is capable of putting up points when they have 2 and either is capable of a big play but in this gm the d's are much stronger than the o's tds are going 2 b hard 2 come by. long as both qbs limit mistakes especailly in there own end of field this gm stay und easy

[2daBank]

the dallas and panthers game didnt go over on mnf and i believe there is 1 other as well

sd/oak 1st gm..it depended on what number u got in that 1 though fortunatly i got it b4 it dropped and hit the under

[moodyt2]

and you think that means what exactly? that its bound to continue? possibly levels itself out? polumalu being hurt may have somthin 2 do with it? if you want to discuss the gm and your thought on it with me thats great but throwin meaningless scores against mostly bad teams to justify why this gm wont b a defensive battle is not worth my time talking about bet your over later you can say dam cant believe neither team got over 20. and by the way that whole mon nite over shit u think u bet every mon over rest of year you will come out ahead?

I'm just throwing some pointers out there. Denver's D @ home will be stout. I don't see Pitt scoring more than 20. But I do see Denver scoring over 20. Who know's it's FOOTBALL! They could score twice on special teams, defense, or turn the ball over.?!?!? Who know's?

[moodyt2]

Yea it depends on what number you got on the past O/U's on MNF.

[tuscani]

Another dog wins! Go Denver!!!!

[xxxvince]

go denver

[capper123]

wont even be close. i live in pittsburgh and the steelers are just like they were the last 2 super bowl titles we own denver in denver. get in the train cause were going home steelers were going home!

[tblues2005]

Denver has the advantage of being home in high altitude against teams from the east coast. I am going with Denver. I seen it at Bet Jamaica it is Pittsburgh -3. I say take the points.

[itchypickle]

I'm going with the under (40 1/2) and think Denver wins it 20-14.

[Spoon]

wont even be close. i live in pittsburgh and the steelers are just like they were the last 2 super bowl titles we own denver in denver. get in the train cause were going home steelers were going home!

I'm not trying to knock you, but your post is deceiving and does not contribute anything meaningful to those who are trying to figure out the game on their own. You residing in Pittsburgh doesn't really give your credibility, just sayn'. Moving on... For example, Pittsburgh does NOT own Denver in Denver. Actually, the last time Pittsburgh played in Denver they lost 31-28 (2007). I'm not sure where you are getting your information, but Pittsburgh is actually 0-4 against Denver in their regular season games played in Denver since the early 90's. Denver won the last three meetings against Pittsburgh too - both Denver and at Pitt. Overall, Denver leads the series 13-6-1, but under Tomlin Pittsburgh is 4-0 on MNF so that is something to consider. I'm not leaning either way as of now, but I thought it was important to correct your post. Keep in mind, 65%+ of the public's money is on Pittsburgh and the line has shrunk from -3 to -1.

GL

[BillAccpetor]

Hmmm Under today...

[Fizz]

Hope the Steelers win but I would take the Broncos +3 and the under.

[Alvisar]

Under

[Limey]

Ben Roethlisberger vs Kyle Orton.

What do you think?

Ravens just wrote the book on how to beat this Denver D. Steelers have been reading it all week.

The Ravens put up fewer than 300 yards on Denver. The score was a little deceptive.

[RPP]

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
TennesseeW 13-10
@ ChicagoL 14-17
@ CincinnatiL 20-23
San DiegoW 38-28
@ DetroitW 28-20
ClevelandW 27-14
MinnesotaW 27-17

Steeler have had 5 games go OVER 40, and 2 games UNDER 40.

1-2 on the road with a 8 point win over DET tells me all I need to know. This isn't the same team that won the Super Bowl.

[ASH0479]

watch the line, public is all over Pitt and its coming down...

[patsfan2727]

Ben Roethlisberger vs Kyle Orton.

What do you think?

Ravens just wrote the book on how to beat this Denver D. Steelers have been reading it all week.

Tom Brady vs Kyle Orton.......what do you think?
Tony Romo vs Kyle Orton......what do you think?
Carson Palmer vs Kyle Orton....what do you think?
Phillip Rivers vs Kyle Orton.....what do you think?

Care to re-assess your handicapping methods Sekrah?

[ryanransel]

Ok I would like to contribute my analysis so far of this game. First to the guy who was showing a bunch of scores saying it has to go over. Last time I checked Denver was a lot better than Detroit. The score in the Baltimore game was very Deceptive as Baltimore had less than 300 total yards in that game. Ray rice was held to 84 yards rushing and his lone touchdown came in the final two minutes against a mop up duty defense. Baltimore also returned a kick for a score in which there was clearly a block in the back that was uncalled and converted a FieldGoal of the games lone turnover ( a moreno fumble in their own redzone that Baltimore failed to put in the endzone) you take away those points and you have a more realistic view of the outcome which would have been a 13-7 victory for baltomore and I guaranteed would have played out much differently because Denver would not have had to abandon the run. That being Said yes denver did lose but they lost on the road too a desparate Baltimore Team coming off a bye in Baltimore.

With that being said, Pittsburgh is 0-3 on the Rd ATS this year, 0-2 as a road favorite of 3 or less. Even in the previous 2 years when they were playing better football. Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or less and 8-11 overall on the road in that span. Pittsburgh is 1-2 Straight up and Lost outright to both Cincy and Chicago as 3 pt road favorites this year. The Chicago game being a heartbreaker on MNF. Pitt is avg 20.7 pts a game on the Rd this year while giving up 20. Keep in mind their three rd games were Chicago Detroit and Cincy. Not outstanding offenses to put it lightly. Cincy has shown that they are very improved, but nonetheless middle of the pack in terms of offensive productivity. Pittsburgh is 0-4 against the spread this year playing in games where the total is between 36 and 42 as well. Pittsburghs only quality win off the year came in the game against Minnasota in a game when Pittsburgh was outplayed and scored 1 offensive TD. They lose the game if it is not for two Fluke turnovers in the 14th quarter. Brett Farve outplayed Ben and the total yrds and TOP were not even close. The bad thing about Brett Favre is he is prone to mistakes trying to be a hero. They will not get this Luxury in playing Kyle Orton.

Denver on the flip side of this is 5-0 ATS in games where the line is +or-3 or less, 4-1 as an underdog, 3-0 at home and 2-0 as home dog of 3 or less. Denver is also 3-0 at home straight up this year avg. 21.3 pts a game at home while only allowing 11 pts a game. Unlike Pittsburgh who can't even cover against Detroit on the road, Denver has two very quality home wins, both of which they were home dogs of 3 points. a 20-17 win against Brady and the patriots and a 17-10 victory in Primetime against Dallas.

Getting away from trend analysis for a minute and putting a statistical outlook into the game. Pittsburgh's Losses came in games that they could not create turnovers. Denver does not turn over the ball. They have just 6 all year which is less than 1 a game. denver is ranked 6 in the league in TO ratio at +6. Pittsburgh however ranks 24th in the league with a -3 TO Ratio. This definatly bodes well for Denver. Adding to this that Cleveland who ranks dead last in TO Ration caused 4 against Pittsburgh shows they are suceptible to turning the ball over.

Another big area of a defensive struggle game is field position. In my opinion the biggest killer to this is QB Sacks The Denver Broncos behind all pro Elvis Dumerville Rank 3rd in the NFL with 23 sacks on the year. Couple this with Pittsburgh being in the top 10 in sacks allowed and Big Bens issue with holding onto the ball too long, Denver D will have a field day taking big Ben to the ground. I predict he will be sacked 5 times in this game. On the other side of the ball, Denver ranks 7th in sacks allowed and has only let Orton be sacked 11 times all year. I think Denver has the clear edge in a field position game because of this seeing that they have almost identical punting statistics.

I think that this will be a hard fought game, Another thin to note is Pittsburgh will be without Ryan Clark at corner because of complications with Sickle Cell in the High Altitude and Starting LB Lawrence Timmons is expected to miss the game as well so Orton will have a much easier time managing a game against a banged up Defense. I just think that Pittsburgh will not be able to overcome the field position game in this one. I like a defensive struggle with both QB's managing the clock and the game. Their will be a lot of fg's in this one but my Final pick after studying both teams is

Denver +3 ( Denver ML for those of you going through online Sportsbooks or have bookies that take them)
Under 41

Final Scor 20-16 Denver

[patsfan2727]

1-2 on the road with a 8 point win over DET tells me all I need to know. This isn't the same team that won the Super Bowl.

don't forget 0-3 ATS on the road!
2 of those ats losses are at chicago (ouch) and detroit (ouuuuuuch)