Ok I would like to contribute my analysis so far of this game. First to the guy who was showing a bunch of scores saying it has to go over. Last time I checked Denver was a lot better than Detroit. The score in the Baltimore game was very Deceptive as Baltimore had less than 300 total yards in that game. Ray rice was held to 84 yards rushing and his lone touchdown came in the final two minutes against a mop up duty defense. Baltimore also returned a kick for a score in which there was clearly a block in the back that was uncalled and converted a
FieldGoal of the games lone turnover ( a moreno fumble in their own redzone that Baltimore failed to put in the endzone) you take away those points and you have a more realistic view of the outcome which would have been a 13-7 victory for baltomore and I guaranteed would have played out much differently because Denver would not have had to abandon the run. That being Said yes denver did lose but they lost on the road too a desparate Baltimore Team coming off a bye in Baltimore.
With that being said, Pittsburgh is 0-3 on the Rd ATS this year, 0-2 as a road favorite of 3 or less. Even in the previous 2 years when they were playing better football. Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or less and 8-11 overall on the road in that span. Pittsburgh is 1-2 Straight up and Lost outright to both Cincy and Chicago as 3 pt road favorites this year. The Chicago game being a heartbreaker on MNF. Pitt is avg 20.7 pts a game on the Rd this year while giving up 20. Keep in mind their three rd games were Chicago Detroit and Cincy. Not outstanding offenses to put it lightly. Cincy has shown that they are very improved, but nonetheless middle of the pack in terms of offensive productivity. Pittsburgh is 0-4 against the spread this year playing in games where the total is between 36 and 42 as well. Pittsburghs only quality win off the year came in the game against Minnasota in a game when Pittsburgh was outplayed and scored 1 offensive TD. They lose the game if it is not for two Fluke turnovers in the 14th quarter. Brett Farve outplayed Ben and the total yrds and TOP were not even close. The bad thing about Brett Favre is he is prone to mistakes trying to be a hero. They will not get this Luxury in playing Kyle Orton.
Denver on the flip side of this is 5-0 ATS in games where the line is +or-3 or less, 4-1 as an underdog, 3-0 at home and 2-0 as home dog of 3 or less. Denver is also 3-0 at home straight up this year avg. 21.3 pts a game at home while only allowing 11 pts a game. Unlike Pittsburgh who can't even cover against Detroit on the road, Denver has two very quality home wins, both of which they were home dogs of 3 points. a 20-17 win against Brady and the patriots and a 17-10 victory in Primetime against Dallas.
Getting away from trend analysis for a minute and putting a statistical outlook into the game. Pittsburgh's Losses came in games that they could not create turnovers. Denver does not turn over the ball. They have just 6 all year which is less than 1 a game. denver is ranked 6 in the league in TO ratio at +6. Pittsburgh however ranks 24th in the league with a -3 TO Ratio. This definatly bodes well for Denver. Adding to this that Cleveland who ranks dead last in TO Ration caused 4 against Pittsburgh shows they are suceptible to turning the ball over.
Another big area of a defensive struggle game is field position. In my opinion the biggest killer to this is QB Sacks The Denver Broncos behind all pro Elvis Dumerville Rank 3rd in the NFL with 23 sacks on the year. Couple this with Pittsburgh being in the top 10 in sacks allowed and Big Bens issue with holding onto the ball too long, Denver D will have a field day taking big Ben to the ground. I predict he will be sacked 5 times in this game. On the other side of the ball, Denver ranks 7th in sacks allowed and has only let Orton be sacked 11 times all year. I think Denver has the clear edge in a field position game because of this seeing that they have almost identical punting statistics.
I think that this will be a hard fought game, Another thin to note is Pittsburgh will be without Ryan Clark at corner because of complications with Sickle Cell in the High Altitude and Starting LB Lawrence Timmons is expected to miss the game as well so Orton will have a much easier time managing a game against a banged up Defense. I just think that Pittsburgh will not be able to overcome the field position game in this one. I like a defensive struggle with both QB's managing the clock and the game. Their will be a lot of fg's in this one but my Final pick after studying both teams is
Denver +3 ( Denver ML for those of you going through online Sportsbooks or have bookies that take them)
Under 41
Final Scor 20-16 Denver
Thoughts on MNF Steelers/Broncos matchup?
