Week 7 picks and thoughts
Bad feeling about this week; struggling to find lines I like and I guess I'm forcing a few games just to have some action - not the best idea. So, small stakes - four units on the sides, three units on the totals.
Dallas -4 over Atlanta
I posted a thread with my thoughts on why Atlanta are probably over-rated at present (turnover-influenced home wins, unsustainably few points conceded for the yardage they allow). I'm therefore opposing them, but I have to admit I was hoping for a smaller line than 4 here. In all honesty I don't entirely like this match-up, with Dallas not defending the pass well this season, but with my rating of Atlanta and home advantage for the Cowboys I'll put my money down.
Houston -3 over San Francisco
Running team versus passing team. Atlanta's pummelling of the 49ers reminded me that if the passing team gets ahead, it isn't easy for a team like San Fran - their passing game struggling thus far - to blaze their way back into the game. With the Texans boasting a pretty good home record even through seasons of mediocrity, I'll back them in this game, an 11am start on the visitors' clocks.
San Diego -4.5 @ Kansas City
The Chargers continue to underwhelm. Still, their opponents this term boast a combined 17-12 record, which is none too shabby. Against genuinely weak opposition in the form of the Chiefs (still finding themselves under a new coaching staff and with not a single area of real strength) I expect San Diego to put up plenty enough points for a 'W'.
Cincinnatti -2 over Chicago
Despite last week's reverse to the Texans, the Bengals have some quality wins on their resume already this season. They have enough in their locker to be worthy favourites for a home win here over the Bears and the compustible Cutler. (And I'm peeved that my bookie goes -2 when this game appears to be a pick'em in many places).
The two 'under' bets are based on a statistical method for picking out totals opportunities, which went 1-1 last week. This week's two selections make me nervous but they are:
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh UNDER 46
New Orleans @ Miami UNDER 46.5
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