[ikeyman31]

Im sure most of you guys already laughed reading the title, most of you guys being great handicappers--And wagering anywhere from 50x-100x what I will be wagering on games. Im not here to get rich, make this my day job, and when I put money into my acct I consider it as lost money. Yes, I may have to reload a few times but Im just starting off minimally. Im new here, and want to learn as cheaply as possibly(Kelly, EV betting, money management etc). I also have a system Ill be trying out..


Why 2000? Well the goals of the rest of the season are a brand new 46 inch LCD, and a brand new jacked up Computer. Always have enjoyed betting so it should be fun. I have always been good in football, always hitting 60-70 percent. Coming here and reading boy did it suck to find out the most I can sustain is 55%. Here's my shot at 55%:

Will continue to add plays to my spreadsheet until kickoff. Im using Betjam and recieved 100 freeplay, and 100 to start. First play in an about an hour or two when I finish plugging everything into the systems...Initial week goals are >55%, learning half kelly, and maximizing juice and percentages(Dont play teasers, or parlays in most situations) Thanks Justin7 for the vids.....and feel free to add any advice

[ikeyman31]

Here is my capped games for the week and workspace. I will cap the games, then add work underneath them via edit throughout the week. These numbers only reflect avg home field advantage, do not adjust for london, and do not adjust for injuries like in Buffalo(qb), or cleveland.

GB 26
Cleveland 16
-public on Gb
-Cleveland team sick
-This seems like a great teaser option, and game to use on moneyline parlay.
-play for cleveland in YPPT, not mine.

SF19
houston 23
-Not playing Houston games, or cincy.
-Houston public play
-SF is 24 in the league against number 1 WR's but 9th overal in pass defense.
-Houston is 27th in the league against RBs.
-play for SF in YPPT--Big play actually there.

SD 24
KC 25
-SD yppt advantage, which is not specifically considered in my system although it is in a way.
-KC plays better at home, must look up trends here.
-SD rush defense is 29th in the league.
-System play.

Ind 30
STL 16
-Rams rush defense is 27th in the league. Can they get off the field when they are down? No
-Indi's run defense is 23rd in the league. Can Steven Jackson keep St louis in the game? Yes.
-Public is all over indi.
-Seems like a nice game to tease below 7, and play moneyline.
-Indi yppt play

NE 31
TB 19
-This game becomes a very close to a system play once you consider NE is not away, in fact it might be like a home game as the world loves NE.
-Belicheck vs rookie QB?
-NE public play
-This is another game you would love to tease, or play moneyline with although not crossing any key numbers may not make sense.
-NE Yppt play


Minn 35
Pitt 19
-Multiple system play in YPPT, and my system for Minn.
-Will polamalu play?
-Minny top 20 against the pass.
-Can pitt shut down peterson and make this favre vs Roth?

Buff 17
Car 14
-Multiple system play YPPT and mine.
-Key injury to Buff QB negates that.
-Buffalo 28th ranked rush defense, which I watched last week get gashed consistantly by a poor Jet run offense.
-Gut feeling is Carolina is winning this game by 7 as their RB's will have a huge day, and Buffalo with NO QB to mount any comback when down.

Jets 18
oakland 11
-Cotchery likely will not play or be decoy
-Aso vs Braylon
-This game is Jets poor rush O(overrated), and Oakland offense vs Jets defense without Jenkins. Jets run defense may be pentrated.
-Jets very poor against oakland when going to oakland
-oakland won last year.
-Jets public
-RLM
--This will likely be a big play for me, and Somthing I should have played on sunday night/monday morning.
-During nickel juice night, do you buy this up to 7?


Chic 19
Cin 22
-Will not play cincy
-Public on Chicago
-Yppt, and my system neither a play.


Atl 27
Dall 30
-Yppt play in favor of atlanta, no play in mine.
-Public on Atl
-RLm?
-Atl top 20 rush defense. Can they take away the rushing game?


NO 28
Mia 21
-Public on NO.
-Small play for YPPT for miami, my system no play.
-NO 22nd ranked rush defense. Can they stop the wildcat?
-Greg Williams vs rookie QB.
-Darren Sharper vs rookie QB.
-Miami pass defense is suspect, and Drew Brees vs 25 ranked run defense.

Ari 18
Giants-26
-Arizona west to east not reflected here.
-Public on giants
-YPPT play on arizona, no play on either for my system.
-Arizona can stop the run(1st in NFL), and can pass the ball. Very good matchup for Arizona here.


Phil 22
Wash 13
-Multiple system play including YPPT.
-divisional game.
-Prime time game
-Public on Phil.
-Phil coming off a bad loss.

[ikeyman31]

Does anyone put their system for handicapping up against someone else's as a test? Im looking at my handicapping vs Dr Bob's and Im not that far off on alot of the games.

Also does anyone use to different models, and avg them? Bob does. The formula I use doesn't specifically enphasize YPPL, or YPPT BUT it obviously uses those stats indirectly. Now I obviously factor in YPP, or T as well but Im thinking maybe I should avg them.

Btw what is the better stat? YPPL or YPPT. Im guessing Red Zone offienciency may be random and thats why Dr Bob uses YPPL.

[ikeyman31]

Ok this is from his FREE section. None of his suscriber content is included here(Nor is his writeups)


My cap --His Cap
GB 26 -- 26
Cleveland 16-- 17

SF 19 -- 19
Houston 23 --23

SD 24-- 25
KC 25-- 19

Ind 30 -- best bet
St louis 16

NE 31-- 31
TB 19-- 14

Min 35-- best bet
Pit 19

Buff 17 -- Best Bet.
Carolina 14

Jets 18-- 20
Oak 11-- 12

Chi 19 -- best bet
Cin 22

Atl 27 -- 24
Dall 30-- 31

NO 28-- 28
Mia 21-- 19

Ariz 18-- best bet
NYG 26

Phil 22-- 22
Wash 13-- 15


The Carolina game Im actually likely to bet Carolina, and that line is I made is with the entire season in mind. Now if I had some way to value more recent games more, and adjust for QB I think the line would be totally different.

Anyway the lines are somewhat similar....I know it means little but when your just starting its encouraging.

[ikeyman31]

10/24/2009 03:41 PMNCAAF� +8kansas-110betjam���0.50 to win .45

10/24/2009 10:38 AMNFL�-6.5/-2colts -6.5/packers -2 teaser-130betjam1 to win 0.77

10/24/2009 10:38 AMNFL-3.5/ 1]-4.5colts -3.5/packers 1/patriots-4.5 teaser-130betjam1 to win 0.77

10/24/2009 10:34 AMNFL +7raiders-130betjam1 to win 0.77

10/24/2009 10:34 AMNFL-6.5panthers-120betjam1 to win 0.83

10/24/2009 10:34 AMNFL-6.5eagles-120betjam1 to win 0.83

10/24/2009 10:34 AMNFL-14patriots-115betjam1 to win 0.87



Ok this is what I have so far. My units are 10$. Ill be continually adding stuff to my spreadsheet as I pick and mostly documenting it there.

[ikeyman31]

The 51-7 ATS(big road underdog after after getting blown out by a team on a win streak) situation is 36-1 ATS since 1995 and 13-1 ATS for me since I discovered it in 2004. Texas Tech, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 16-61 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that is based on last week's upset win

Im going to have to start getting into trend seeking to supplement. Where do people get all these trends? I know alot of the simple ones are everywhere, but where to get the more complex ones?

Added Texas AM +21.5

[ikeyman31]

10/25/2009 11:22 AM Spread (fp) $10.00 $8.00 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -13½ -125 buying 1 for Game
10/25/2009 11:19 AM Teaser (fp) $10.00 $8.33 Football - 419 Green Bay Packers -2½ for Game
Football - 422 Pittsburgh Steelers +½ for Game
10/25/2009 11:04 AM Parlay (fp) $10.00 $8.05 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -1000 for Game
Football - 419 Green Bay Packers -400 for Game
Football - 430 Carolina Panthers -320 for Game
10/23/2009 11:59 PM Teaser (fp) $10.00 $7.69 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -6½ for Game
Football - 419 Green Bay Packers -2 for Game
10/23/2009 11:57 PM Spread $10.00 $8.33 Football - 437 Philadelphia Eagles -6½ -120 buying ½ for Game
10/23/2009 11:56 PM Spread (fp) $10.00 $8.33 Football - 430 Carolina Panthers -6½ -120 buying ½ for Game
10/23/2009 11:55 PM Spread (fp) $10.00 $7.69 Football - 428 Oakland Raiders +7 -130 buying 1 for Game
10/23/2009 11:53 PM Spread (fp) $10.00 $8.70 Football - 423 New England Patriots -14 -115 buying ½ for Game
10/23/2009 11:52 PM Teaser $10.00 $7.69 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -3½ for Game
Football - 419 Green Bay Packers +1 for Game
Football - 423 New England Patriots -4½ for Game


OK, looks to be close to the final card. I may be looking to play a prop or two, and possibly adding another unit to oakland. I actually will not be using the spreadsheet anymore as its much easier to copy and paste.

[RobbReport]

good luck dude! subscribing.

[RobbReport]

post your results in dollars

[ikeyman31]

those statictics dont show injiries man , got to get off those , youll lose your ass, Atlanta has got some key guys hurt that have something to do with that already not great rushing defense

Oh yea, none of those lines or capping initially includes injuries. I obv check them out as well, but not sure how to adjust team numbers per player out. I have not really looked at betting sides yet, or researched it so I rarely play them. How do you usually go about them?

Btw I have a post where Im comparing my capped numbers next to Dr. Bob. Where you see "Best Bet" is simply on games he has his best bets on. No idea which side he chose on those sides. "Best Bet" simply means I don't have his capped numbers for those games.

[ikeyman31]

good luck dude! subscribing.

Thanks, I will.

[ikeyman31]

10/25/2009 11:22 AM Spread (fp) $10.00 $8.00 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -13½ -125 buying 1 for Game
10/25/2009 11:19 AM Teaser (fp) $10.00 $8.33 Football - 419 Green Bay Packers -2½ for Game
Football - 422 Pittsburgh Steelers +½ for Game
10/25/2009 11:04 AM Parlay (fp) $10.00 $8.05 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -1000 for Game
Football - 419 Green Bay Packers -400 for Game
Football - 430 Carolina Panthers -320 for Game
10/23/2009 11:59 PM Teaser (fp) $10.00 $7.69 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -6½ for Game
Football - 419 Green Bay Packers -2 for Game
10/23/2009 11:56 PM Spread (fp) $10.00 $8.33 Football - 430 Carolina Panthers -6½ -120 buying ½ for Game
10/23/2009 11:55 PM Spread (fp) $10.00 $7.69 Football - 428 Oakland Raiders +7 -130 buying 1 for Game
10/23/2009 11:53 PM Spread (fp) $10.00 $8.70 Football - 423 New England Patriots -14 -115 buying ½ for Game
10/23/2009 11:52 PM Teaser $10.00 $7.69 Football - 415 Indianapolis Colts -3½ for Game
Football - 419 Green Bay Packers +1 for Game
Football - 423 New England Patriots -4½ for Game


OK, looks to be close to the final card. I may be looking to play a prop or two, and possibly adding another unit to oakland. I actually will not be using the spreadsheet anymore as its much easier to copy and paste.

Summary for Saturday, and Sunday:
Saturday I won Texas A and M (1 unit @ -110), and Lost Kansas (.5@ -110). College 1-1 50%(+.4 units)

NFL (See above)
NFL 5-3 60% (+1 unit)

Pretty pissed about Carolina who kept me from being 7-1 today. I feel like I chose the side correctly as Carolina dominated the game in in total yardage (425-167), and first downs (20-9). Oakland was just a incorrect pick. It was clear from the first drive of the game Rex Ryan has taken control of the offense for the first time all season, and clearly went to Baltimore's offense last season. The Jets ran the ball at close to a 65-35 split, and it should be noted for future capping. Expect a clone of the 08 Ravens from here on in in terms of game planning.

Going into next week I think the game plan is to have a checks and balances type system of 3 factors for me.
1-My system.
2-YPPL figures.
3-Trends.

Note: Still Pending

10/23/2009 11:57 PM Spread $10.00 $8.33 Football - 437 Philadelphia Eagles -6½ -120 buying ½ for Game

[ikeyman31]

Summary for Saturday, and Sunday:
Saturday I won Texas A and M (1 unit @ -110), and Lost Kansas (.5@ -110). College 1-1 50%(+.4 units)

NFL (See above)
NFL 5-3 60% (+1 unit)


Going into next week I think the game plan is to have a checks and balances type system of 3 factors for me.
1-My system.
2-YPPL figures.
3-Trends.

Note: Still Pending

Eagles cashed in.

NFL 6-3 (66%) +1.8 units.

I put in a few early gut bets.

Teaser $10.00 $7.69 Football - 211 Houston Texans +3½ for Game
Football - 228 Arizona Cardinals -2½ for Game

Teaser $10.00 $7.69 Football - 216 Indianapolis Colts -4 for Game
Football - 234 New Orleans Saints -2 for Game

This Houston game I may put even more on after doing some research. Buffalo may be the luckiest team in the NFL after winning two games in a row they were dominated in-in yards by a huge margin. Arizona has a very nice matchup especially when you consider they will take out Carolina's running game.

[ikeyman31]

Ok here's some of my plays so far, although I will be wagering more after 6 tonight.

Parlay $10.00 $8.43
Football - 210 Chicago Bears -725 for Game
Football - 216 Indianapolis Colts -700 for Game
Football - 228 Arizona Cardinals -525 for Game
Football - 234 New Orleans Saints -525 for Game


Spread $10.00 $8.70 Football -
228 Arizona Cardinals -9½ -115 buying ½ for Game

Spread $10.00 $9.09 Football -
229 New York Giants +1 -110 for Game

Spread $10.00 $8.00 Football -
211 Houston Texans -3 -125 buying ½ for Game


Teaser Teaser $5.00 $60.00
Football - 216 Indianapolis Colts -6 for Game
Football - 229 New York Giants +8 for Game
Football - 210 Chicago Bears -6½ for Game
Football - 211 Houston Texans +3½ for Game
Football - 213 Minnesota Vikings +10 for Game
Football - 216 Indianapolis Colts -5 for Game
Football - 217 Miami Dolphins +10 for Game
Football - 222 Dallas Cowboys -2½ for Game
Football - 228 Arizona Cardinals -3 for Game
Football - 229 New York Giants +9 for Game
Football - 234 New Orleans Saints -3 for Game


Teaser $10.00 $7.69
Football - 211 Houston Texans +3½ for Game
Football - 228 Arizona Cardinals -2½ for Game


Teaser $10.00 $7.69
Football - 216 Indianapolis Colts -4 for Game
Football - 234 New Orleans Saints -2 for Game

[ikeyman31]

Here's some thoughts and work for the week.

Here are some of the capped games from my system. I only capped 4 games as I did rough caps to get early lines, and YPPL/Gut plays for the other ones. Also there are some games Im just not touching like the Lion/Detroit games and Tenn/Jax. I can't see why someone would wager money on a game with two such inconsistent teams like Jax/Tenn.

Next to my numbers are Dr. Bobs. Not too bad. I would love to compare it to other guys with Math Systems but most dont post them.

SF 15---12
Indi 29---29

Browns 17--15
Bears 24---26

Seahawks 21--19
Cowboys 29---23

Raiders 13---14
Chargers 26--28


I feel very strongly about the Cardinals, and Texans. The Cardinals taking away Carolina's run game will put the game solely on Jake Delhomme. Even if its close near the end, Im confident Delhomme will find a way to give a back door cover for Arizona.

As for the Texans game, all you can say is When will the Bills stop getting so lucky? They should have lost 3 games in a row now, and have NO OFFENSE with Fitzpatrick. I strongly disagree with Dr Bob, and others here. If this line comes down some before gametime, I will likely add another unit to it.

As for system two(YPPL) it looks like Denver, Arizona, Giants, and Seattle may be plays. I believe the Texans match up strongly in YPPL in the last few games as well.

As for trends.....Those Ill be looking for until gametime.

As for College--Ill be making some picks in the next few hours.

[ikeyman31]

Okay here are my college plays, and I added one more NFL play.......

10/30/2009 7:17 PM Teaser $22.83 $17.56
Football - 216 Indianapolis Colts -5½ for Game
Football - 228 Arizona Cardinals -3 for Game

10/30/2009 6:54 PM Spread $10.00 $9.52
Football - 127 New Mexico State +44 -105 for Game

10/30/2009 6:53 PM Spread $10.00 $8.70
Football - 168 TCU -34½ -115 buying ½ for Game

10/30/2009 6:47 PM Spread $10.00 $6.90
Football - 111 Central Michigan +7½ -145 buying 2 for Game

10/30/2009 6:44 PM Spread $10.00 $8.70
Football - 171 Penn State -16½ -115 buying ½ for Game

10/30/2009 6:42 PM Spread $10.00 $9.52
Football - 126 Northern Illinois -12 -105 for Game

10/30/2009 6:41 PM Spread $10.00 $9.52
Football - 139 Nebraska -13 -105 for Game

10/30/2009 6:40 PM Spread $10.00 $8.70
Football - 124 Florida State -9½ -115 buying ½ for Game


Good Luck this weekend

[ikeyman31]

added Boise -14 second half (1 unit) -115

Just added Miami -3 (against wake) 1 unit

[Shahbucks]

Nice tease on the card and colts.

[ikeyman31]

11/1/2009 2:40 PM Spread $10.00 $8.33 Football - 229 New York Giants -3 -120 for 2nd Half 11/1/2009 2:38 PM Spread $10.00 $8.00 Football - 222 Dallas Cowboys -3 -125 for 2nd Half 11/1/2009 2:36 PM Spread $21.00 $20.00 Football - 216 Indianapolis Colts -8 -105 for 2nd Half 11/1/2009 2:33 PM Spread $11.00 $10.00 Football - 229 New York Giants -3 -110 for 2nd Half 11/1/2009 2:32 PM Spread $10.00 $9.52 Football - 218 New York Jets -3 -105 for 2nd Half

[whatsgood5]

Good luck man, I like the reasonable goal, will be checking in on this thread, BOL

[ikeyman31]

Big play on SD -7 second half!