[Sharkl11]

Brady & Co. heads back home after a disappointing close loss in Denver and will face the win less Titans. As -9 Home favorites, I believe this is pretty fair value. Here are some of my reasons why I think Patriots can pull off a double-digit win:

1) The Titans are plagued by injuries. S Vincent Fuller is out. CB Nick Harper is out.
CB C. Finnegan(hamstring) S M. Griffin(neck stinger) are both questionable. If they do play, they won't be at %100 health. DE J. Kearse(foot) will also most likely be out.

2) Pats WRs vs Titans secondary
-Randy Moss is due for a big game whose against a banged up secondary and whose best corner back(Finnegan) is injured or might not play.
-Wes Welker is finally healthy and will be guarded by a rookie, either Jason McCourty or Ryan Mouton in the nickel.

3) Do you remember what the Patriots did after losing a frustrating game in New York? They came back home as -4 favorites against the Falcons and blew them out 26-10. Brady performs better when he is pissed. After fumbling a ball and missing Wes Welker on a short pass that could have potentially led to a TD, Brady is hungry to prove himself...and that is dangerous.

Why is the line at -9 and not higher?

1) Titans have a bye week coming up. But are the players really going to put out full effort or look forward to having a break?

2) Kris Johnson is a monster. (except last game)

3) Desperate win less teams will play all out because they have nothing to lose.

4) Some people think they are still a good team? I know many got burned because of "must win" spots w/ Titans these past weeks.


Patriots play better at home.
Patriots play harder after a loss.
Patriots at (3-2) record are hungry and motivated for a Win.

Titans I believe, is the most disappointing team in the NFL thus far. They are not the same as last year and it's about time to label them with teams like the Browns/Lions/Raiders. The only difference?....Browns(+14)....Lions(+13. 5)....Raiders(+14) They are double digit underdogs. Besides that, the Titans are the most banged up team of them all.

Steelers/Packers/Eagles need to win double digits to cover...
In my mind the Patriots are better than three of these teams and only needs to cover -9.

This is my reasoning why I will happily put my $ on the Patriots and take my chances with them to cover.

Good Luck and God Speed

[Robust]

agree with most things you point out ('cept for "they are due" or whatever on the NE side).. but NE doesn't win by alot.. score margin is 2.6.. and adjusted is 1.33.. and Ten loses by 11.. adjusted is by 10.. colts kicked their ass bad..

tens passing just plain out sux.. and their rushing is still very strong, but they can't seem to turn the yards into points..

been on the losing side of their games when I take them.. no win for me from them this year..

and with that said, NO PLAY!

can't count on NE to cover.. and can't count on TEN to cover..

good luck with your plays!

Robust

[Sharkl11]

"agree with most things you point out ('cept for "they are due" or whatever on the NE side)"

I only said Randy Moss was "due" for a big game.
About the score margin:
Week1: First game in a year for Brady. He's getting into the groove. Great final drive for win btw.
Week2: No Wes Welker was HUGE against a blitzy happy team.
Week3: 26-10 over falcons
Week4: Respectable 6 pt victory over Ravens who was considered to have Best Defense at that point.
Week5: Broncos are considered to have best D in NFL now.

[thezzzone]

The respectable 6 point victory over the Ravens never would have happened if not for the officials ( no offence meant but seriously, that was a total farce) and a dropped pass on 4th down inside the Pats 15 yd line. They did look good against the Ravens tho for the most part, especially the D. Shark, you forgot to mention the TD pass Brady missed to Moss when he was waaayyy behind the db's last week. Welker looks healthy, Moss has been solid but not HUGE, Brady still isn't quite there yet. I think they need to run the ball more than they have been period. The D looks solid finally to me.

I LOVE this game!!!!! Pats-blow-out..it ALL comes together this week!!! 35-10

[alka07]

i take ne -9 easy in this game

[BGboothA]

Tennessee Titans pass defense is horrific. Simple as that, Brady will have a huge game.

Lets look at Quarterbacks against Tennessee this year so far...

Week 1 = Roethlishbit(h 363 yards 1 TD
Week 2 = Schuab 357 4 TD
Week 3 = Sanchez 171 2TD
Week 4 = Manning 309 3TD

Brady will look like the Brady of old and the Titans will fall again. I don't see how Tennessee can keep this close. NE needs to prove they are who they think they are and they won't worry about 'running' up this one. I like NE here as well.

[thezzzone]

ZACTLY BGboothA!!!!!!

GO USC!!!!!! Wanna cash that and POUND this Pats team Sunday!!!

[R3Sports]

I like the play dude, not sure If I play this game, but If I do, it's NE (-9)

[lakerboy]

another game that has no need to be bet. its only a matter of time before ten burns people big time

[cav1x]

Ne -9 looks easy

[tblues2005]

I like the Titans in this game. NE hasn't been that great all year and the Titans haven't won a game yet. They may make this game close.

[alex81]

Tom Brady QB rating of 85.9... I think Tennessee keeps it close.

[Sharkl11]

Weather forecasts looks to be cloudy. Please no rain.

[WINGZ]

Time 4 the Titans to wake up.....takin tenn +9

[ezeblazin]

Stay away from the Titans this week... No Finnegan, Harper or Fuller means two rookie CB's starting... and no nickel to match up aganst Welker

[RJ89]

Earlier this week Welker was listed as questionable, and I still made the bet. Now he is playing and I am extra confident in the Patriots. This is a terrible spot for the Titans.

[EdV38]

A logical human being that has never seen a football game in their life could read this thread and immediately know NE will win just by analysing the reasons explained by each side.

NE side: Ten injured, Ten terrible pass defense against a good QB, home advantage, in a playoff hunt, NE has looked mostly good throughout the year despite Moss/Brady not really clicking yet - imagine what happens when they do
TEN side: They're due, possibly bad weather.

No one can come up with any good, team specific reason to go in favour of TEN. The only thing that's holding me back is the weather, which I will decide right before game time after a check up on the weather report if to make the bet.

[Sharkl11]

What's the weather in New England?????I can't watch the game. (From cali)...they showing the freaking Cardinals/Seahawks game.

[Sharkl11]

Yes. 7-0 Pats. Come on baby.

[Sharkl11]

So far. Patriots are moving the ball with ease. Titans are struggling mightily. Looks very promising.

[Sharkl11]

Looks like easy blowout . 17-0

[Dexter]

What's the weather in New England?????I can't watch the game. (From cali)...they showing the freaking Cardinals/Seahawks game.

snow/wind....field is white

[Sharkl11]

24-0 !!!!!!! Easiest game today.

[johnnymapalo]

Isn't it!!! I was going for the over 38 but saw the snow and changed my mind..

[JBC77]

Pats was my only play on Sunday. I keep a really small and tight card every week. The less you bet and the more people focus on just winning a few games instead of carrying a 5, 6, 7 play card.....the better you do in the long run. Never has the less is more approach been practical than in betting sports.

[Sharkl11]

I like doing these write-ups for myself. Got Panthers/Patriots today. Had falcons last week and steelers before that. Hope this continues.

[windmann2]

Wow Titans...Snow makes you melt I guess..

[Sharkl11]

Brady first half stats: 18/19 completions . 4 TD passes. 301 passing yards....and there is still two minutes to play. Just matter of time before ppl start jumping on bandwagon and inflation in point spreads.

[Skidcom]

Looks like Brady figured out a way to get benched and stay warm....5 friggin' td passes in a quarter?

[Sharkl11]

1) Don't mess with a pissed off Patriots team
2) Randy Moss was due
3) Snow is awesome for Patriots.

[Betman]

Pats was my only play on Sunday. I keep a really small and tight card every week. The less you bet and the more people focus on just winning a few games instead of carrying a 5, 6, 7 play card.....the better you do in the long wrong. Never has the less is more approach been practical than in betting sports.

Wise words. Very wise words indeed.

It's been a pleasure reading your comments. You are one of the few who understands that the secret in making money betting sports is keeping a high winning percentage and the only way you can do that is by limiting the number of games you bet on and reducing RISK EXPOSURE in the process.

New England was my only play in the NFL too. Had my eyes on Green Bay also but decided to ride NE instead.


.

[Sharkl11]

Wonder what the line is next week against the shit bucs. Line has to be pretty inflated.

[WINGZ]

guess Titans are still in hibernation....but i guarantee they wont lose next week!!!!!!!promises to be thier best weekend of the season so far!!!!

[jellobiafra]

50 point cover.

Don't get to say that too often.